Race 1
1 – Honey Graeme – this four year old filly was claimed after her last start at Belmont in September, a day where she made a nice wide move and just missed the top spot. She’ll run for the first time out of the Schettino barn and finds herself back in the friendly confines of The Big A, where she sports a stellar 6: 2-2-0 lifetime record. She also owns two wins over today’s six-panel distance and Carmouche will surely use the early zip to possibly walk them down the backstretch. 1-4-6
Race 2
2 – De Kooning – my first swing of the Aqueduct meet comes with this first-timer from the barn of Roy Lerman. He doesn’t run many horses, but when he does he hits at a startling 31% and he brings in this Tonalist gelding from the Saratoga training tack. In a field with some unknowns and no proven commodity, why not go with a price for a barn that seemingly spots their horses well and has had success with first-timers on the grass. 2-8-4
Race 3
5 – Ghost Giant – ran well off the short layoff last out at Belmont despite a troubled trip over the mile distance, and gets to stretch out today with some versatility in his bag depending on the pace scenario. Despite only two career wins, he’s been very consistent since the move to grass and makes his second start for Jeremiah Englehart today. Junior Alvarado gets the mount and I see a nice stalking trip for the four year old gelding. 4-2-3
Race 4
7 – Playwright – it’s possible that the 8/31 effort at Monmouth was a freak performance, and Dark Money should go off as the very heavy favorite in here, but I like his outside post and all the speed to his inside. Carmouche is an aggressive rider so by no means do I expect a run from the clouds, but he should at the very least sit in the catbird seat and hope someone pushes the favorite up front. The Gargan barn connects on 30% of their runners going from route to sprint, and this layoff shouldn’t be an issue considering the 21% strike rate on 61-180 days. 7-4-2
Race 5
1 – Getoffmyback – chalky here, but I love this one from the rail with all that speed to just go and not look back. He looked great at Belmont when dropping into this $10k claiming level, and if runs back to that effort here he’ll be hard to catch for a barn that wins with 26% of their last-out victors. 1-8-2
Race 6
9 – Empire Express – Brad Cox is sending this $90k son of Big Brown out for the first time over a route of ground on the Aqueduct sod and connects with 22% of his first-time turf runners. He also does reasonably well with route debuts (19%) and seemingly has this one working well over at Belmont. I like that Carmouche gets the ride as he’ll likely be aggressive from the bell, a tactic I prefer when betting debut runners. 9-3-4
Race 7
1 – Binkster – using similar logic here to my choice in race 5 when it comes to how the race will shape up; this 4 year old gelding appears to have the best early zip and could be alone on the lead for the first half of this race despite not really NEEDING to be. The speed figures are consistent and he has three wins in seven tries at the Big A to go along with never missing the exacta at today’s distance. 1-2-4
Race 8
5 – Gallant Bid – Linda Rice gave him a crack against ALW company at Belmont in late September and it turned out to be a little too steep for the first turf try. She gives him a small break heading into today, drops him back into the claiming ranks and hopes to find the sweet spot for the young runner. Price should be fair and I trust the barn / jockey combo to have him ready. 5-6-1
Race 9
5 – Moonlit Garden – She was last seen at Churchill Downs in mid-September losing by a neck in Grade 3 company, and I’m thinking Brad Cox has her right where he wants her heading into this salty affair. The works have been VERY sharp, the horse has the versatility to handle any kind of pace scenario and the barn connects with 28% of their runners coming off this layoff. She’s ready. 5-9-6
Race 10
5 – Microscope – I know we’ve moved over to the Big A from Belmont, but I’m going to wait for the Saturday finale to actually have something normal happen before I do any deep dives. That being said, I like Pletcher’s first-timer at a price in this spot. The works don’t jump off the page and there isn’t a huge price tag for this 2-yo, but the barn has such a solid history with debut runners that I’m going to take a swing at what could be something near the 8-1 ML. 5-1-4
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 448: 105-88-74, -17.6% ($896 wagered, $738.00 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.4%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.6%