Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Saturday, January 12, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Another Saturday and another opportunity to earn some cash at Aqueduct. Last week we could not hit any winners, but we cannot do anything about that anymore. Let’s see if we can have a profitable day and compensate for last week.

1st race: 6½ Furlongs. ™‘MC 30000 Purse $35,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Ladyberg (#7), Vinda Machine (#1), Irish Banker (#8)

As usual, maiden claimers open the Saturday card at the Big A. Ladyberg was slow at the start in her debut, and then was receiving kickback dirt, which didn’t allow her to perform better, although she made up good ground in the stretch. Lezcano stays aboard and with a cleaner break, she will be a tough cookie to chew. Vinda Machine debuted on the grass and against allowance maidens. Nos gets to the dirt and the group she will be facing is much softer. Franco and George Weaver are a potent combo. Irish Banker showed speed in her most recent, which was just eight days ago. Makes a quick return back and keeps dropping, looking for her niche.

2nd race: 5½ Furlongs. ™Clm 16000 Purse $32,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Sandy Belle (#5), Archumybaby (#7), Moondance Joy (#1)

Sandy Belle has done her best work at Aqueduct. That last race was disappointing, but she was coming off a three-month rest. Now gets a better post and should be able to have first run on the leaders. First after the claim for new trainer Merktan Kantarmaci, Archumybaby drops one level and the outside post gives her a bit of an edge. She has not been able to win at Aqueduct, but has run well and is the first one to consider. Moondance Joy was the pick for Dylan Davis, but she has not win in almost two years. She drops to the lower level she has ever faced.

3rd race: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s Purse $55,000 (UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING.

Missile Bomb (#7), American Power (#2), Joe’s Smokin Gun (#6)

Top pick has been a model of consistency all year, winning six and placing four times in his last ten races. In addition, in Aqueduct he has won three times and placed the same number in seven tries. That simply cannot be overlooked, and with the outside post, is the horse to beat. American Power just got beat by my favorite last time out; with some improvement, he can be dangerous. Joe’s Smokin Gun has won two straight, each time climbing up a level. He keeps climbing, indicative of his good form. Watch out for him!

4th race: 6½ Furlongs. ™‘MC 30000 Purse $35,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Midnitesalright (#5), Rattle the Stars (#9), Heartbustingirl (#2)

At one time, my favorite lost to the probable Eclipse Award winner Jaywalk by just four lengths, and to More Mischief, another stakes winner, by two and three quarter lengths. It’s obvious that there are some problems with her, as Servis is dropping her and with a slow breeze after her last race. However, if she is fit enough, she should win easily. Rattle the Stars gets blinkers now after getting out slow from the gate in her debut run. Eclipse nominee Reylu Gutierrez takes over for trainer Steve Asmussen, and there is reason to believe she should run better now. Heartbustingirl debuted on August, was transferred to Pletcher, gets five months off and returns in a maiden claimer. Not good signs to all, but in this group you don’t need to be Secretariat to have a chance.

5th race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 14000n3L Purse $28,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.

Ultimateenticement (#6), Proximate to Power (#5), Flatexcel (#8)

Very difficult race to handicap, so I’ll go with a longshot. This horse was not persevered upon after getting pinched at the start in his most recent effort. Now Nevin drops him to the bottom, with three breezes as a prep and Manny Franco gets the call. I expect an improved effort in his part. Proximate to Power should win if he replicates that last race, but after winning easily, Cox drops him to the bottom. Suspect drop, to say the least.  Flatexcel is maybe the quickest of this bunch and he also is taking a plunge in class, after two subpar performances. Rajiv will look for him to take the lead and wire this field from that eight post.

6th race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000 Purse $32,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Go Big or Go Home (#4), Too Fast to Pass (#7), Spartiatis (#5)

Go Big or Go Home returns to a group much more manageable for him, and takes a good cutback in distance. Trainer Gullo hits at a 35% clip in the Sprint/Route/Sprint statistic and Cancel does not leave the mount. Too Fast to Pass is the fastest of this bunch and he is returning to the races with two very quick breezes. Alvarado should put him on the engine from the start and if he is let loose, he is very dangerous. Spartiatis was a 0.15/1 favorite last time out and he flunked tremendously. Got a short break and he is running at a higher claim price than the one he flunked at. Has four works in preparation and Rudy and Diaz Jr. are hitting at 40% for the meet.

7th race: 1 Mile. Alw 70000n1x Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

Allured (#7), Wine Not (#3), House Limit (#8)

Allured didn’t had any pace to close against in his most recent start. He breezed twice and very nicely for this race and Franco keeps the mount, although he had choices to ride, and he has already beaten the morning line favorite. Wine Not is not a winning machine in any way or form, but he has been running versus much better horses than this. Has seven works before this return race, the last one a bullet fired at Belmont. House Limit won as he pleased in his most recent, but in that race, he was able to manage very easy fractions. He can do it again, no question, but I prefer to watch him do it again first.

8th race: 7 Furlongs. ‘SayFLSndyB100K Say Florida Sandy S. Purse $100,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Syndergaard (#7), Honor Up (10), Gold for the King (#2)

Finally we saw the real Syndergaard in action. He had many problems in those next to last two starts, and with Maragh was able to get into a stalking position early and pounce late to win going away. No question that this is a tougher group, but I suspect that with Terranova we will see a return to glory for this promising colt. Honor Up won his last one from the three hole, now gets the outside port and Manny Franco. Should move him forward. Gold for the King is a Big A specialist, with four wins in six lifetime appearances. He will have to contend with a very uncomfortable two hole and Alvarado has never ridden him, this is why I relegated him.

9th race: 1 Mile. ‘MC 25000 Purse $33,000 FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Cool Crinoline (#8), Holycowits Patrick (#3), Theresa’s Boy (#1)

In a race in which the 7/5 favorites are 0 for 18 and 0 for 320 respectively, don’t blame me if I want to beat them. I will try with Cool Crinoline, who was eased two weeks ago, and now returns to the same bad group in which he was a 3.60 to one proposition. Holycowits Patrick is one of the few that is showing some improvement on his running lines, and that is important in such a bad bunch.

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