Welcome back to another Saturday at the Big A! We have nine races to dive into today, and the weather looks like we’ll get a fair track. Good luck to everyone playing!
Best Win Bet: Race 6: #10, Tousled
Best Double: Races 5 & 6 – 5,6 / 10
Best Exacta: Race 6: 10-1
Early Pick 5 ( Race #1) .50 – 4,5 / 3,4,6 / 1,5 / 2,4,7 / 5,6 = $36
Race 1
4 – Canarsie Girl – keeps getting better with each start, the most recent of which saw her rally nicely for a close third. Cuts back today, and the worktab before the last start indicates she could have one more move forward. Hoping the price ticks up a bit.
5 – Sanaable – have to respect the debut, and the McLaughlin barn does very well with second time starters. She should be primed to go, but she went off at big odds in the first try and ships in for this. I’ll try to beat her at a very short price.
1 – Clara Allen – the other Kiaran horse in here could find the lead early, so maybe the inside bias shows up and she hangs on for a piece?
Race 2
6 – Driven by Speed – most of the starts came on the grass, but I love that the last try was on the local dirt and that Franco was in the irons. He stays aboard here and draws outside, should sit a nice stalking trip at the 7F distance.
3 – Elizabeth Nicole – has shown early speed at this level, but faded late in the last try at a mile. Don’t see much speed in here, and with the small cutback she could be hanging around late.
4 – Not About the Nail – likely favorite drops down to her lowest level to date, which she’ll need considering the last three starts against tougher didn’t work out. Comes back in a week and shortens up, have to respect enough to keep on the ticket.
Race 3
1 – Zabaione – the last start left plenty to be desired off a 7-month break, but that can be expected and I think she’ll find a nice spot inside with a good break.
5 – Toohottoevenspeak – trainer switch to the new barn has been an awful change thus far, but they give the reigns to the meet-leading rider and that’s enough for me to throw into the place spot in a race I’m not in love with.
2 – Pretentious – drops back down after a rough and tumble try against tougher, and the likely favorite will need to prove he can win on a fast track as much as likes the wet surface.
Race 4
7 – Noble Behavior – this is a TERRIBLE race. That said, this one has excuses in his last two at this level and I like him to breakthrough in start eight.
4 – Shook Em Up – finally looked OK in the fourth start, should be fine here for Jerkins. Again, this race is TERRIBLE.
2 – Dublin Leprechaun – definitely the only one in here that has been anything close to consistent, and he’s hit the board twice locally.
Race 5
6 – Fair Regis –took them all the way around at today’s distance here late last month, and the barn hits on 25% of runners coming off a win. The outside draw and the penchant for early speed should put her right in the mix here, and I like the price. Look for a stalking trip outside the 5.
5 – Noble Freud – should shoot out quickly for Englehart and will look to set the pace, and Franco can certainly be trusted in such scenarios. The work earlier In the week is very sharp and I expect a big effort.
1 – Bluegrass Jamboree – nice, consistent figures for this Charlton Baker-runner who draws inside and has shown the ability to sit off a pace. I don’t think there’s enough to chase in here for her to win, but she will certainly be involved on the turn.
Race 6
10 – Tousled – ran well at a HUGE price in the debut, draws outside and shows the most speed-promise in a race lacking zip. If she can clear I like her to get close and pounce.
1 – Stirred Not Shakin – gets the inside draw coming off a clear place finish last-out. Has a chance to be on the engine early, and with any ability to rate she could be sitting on an easy trip on the turn.
2 – Vinda Machine – the 2/3 drill is promising, and Franco stays aboard.
Race 7
5 – Fournineteen – aired in the debut for Pletcher, and this favorite looks like an easy winner here.
2 – Warrens Vengance – another impressive debut winner, she’ll be close to the lead but might not get the setup to run down the 5.
6 – Diamond N Simon – she could also show speed early, and if she gets the lead I could see a wire job. I’ll pencil her in for a fade to show.
Race 8
7 – Gates of Dawn – ran into a hard pace scenario in the last try at this level, but came back nicely with the bullet work this week. The outside draw should help and he has the early speed to get himself into it.
4 – Tikhvin Flew – the Asmussen colt won impressively near the lead in the debut, and has worked nicely since. With a clean break it could be curtains, but I think there’s enough pressure in here to set it up for my top pick.
3 – Haikal – both starts have been very nice closing rallies, and though impressive I don’t like the setup for that in here. Short price to beat in the exacta.
Race 9
10 – Caralicious –should get a fast track and the last try showed enough to improve here.
9 – Annette’s Humor – Franco for Rudy coming off three close efforts on a wet track. Likely favorite and likely winner, but will the price tick down so low that it’s worth a bet-against considering the lack of rain?
8 – Centrall – drops way down here and might try to get the lead. Still has to show something.
2018-2019 Belmont / Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 2/2/19)
- Week 1 (10/20) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Total: 119: 28-23-11, -14.6% ROI ($238 wagered, $203.30 returned)
- Win Rate = 23.5%
- ITM Rate = 52.1%