Aqueduct has not been kind to me lately, and this is my last Saturday trying to come up with some winners in this track, so let’s make the most of this last chance. The Grade III Withers is the highlight of this very nice ten race card, lets go to the comments:
1st race: 1 Mile. ™Hcp 20000s Purse $45,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Stay Fond (#2), Daria’s Angel (#4), Mia Bella Rosa (#5)
The opener looks to be controlled by the three fillies I have in my selection. I prefer Stay Fond, who ran into a soft pace last time out, and now should have a saltier pace in front of her. Manny Franco stays up for trainer Linda Rice. Daria’s Angel is an Aqueduct specialist, with three wins in four lifetime starts over this oval, and trainer Rob Atras is hitting at a 63% win clip (5 out of 8). Mia Bella Rosa ran lights out in her last start at 15-1, the question is, will she be able to repeat such a strong effort, with some company in that first flight?
2nd race: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 68k Purse $68,000 (UP TO $11,832 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD.
Motagally (#4), Stilts (#1), Itgot Grandma (#6)
This is another race who seems to be controlled by the top picks, in this case my first two. Motagally already has experience over the nine furlong trip and his working pattern for this commitment has been fabulous. Manny Franco and Chad Brown hit together at a 28% rate and he is definitely the horse to beat in here. Not far from him is Stilts, who had some trouble at the start in his most recent, in which he was beat just a nose by my favorite. Don’t understand why Dylan Davis is riding Sothern Phantom instead of him, definitely food for thought. Itgot Grandma didn’t run that bad at all on his first race at a route, and receives a good upgrade in Junior Alvarado. He can be the sleeper in this group.
3rd race: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 16000 Purse $32,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Javelin (#4), Lazarus Project (#1), Regalian (#2)
Javelin, in a speed-depleted race, seems to be the fastest of the bunch, and he is maybe on the best form of his career. Breezed very nicely for this race and I expect him to be prominent from when they spring the latch. Lazarus Project is not much of a winning machine, with only 4 wins in 37 starts, but has been facing much better horses. This group should be more of his liking and Manny Franco jumps aboard. Regalian beat my top pick two races ago over a sloppy track, and does his best job over the Big A oval. Sub estimated Benjamin Hernandez retakes the reins.
4th race: 1 Mile. ™Mdn 68k Purse $68,000 (UP TO $11,832 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.
Cariba (#2), Solent (#7), Paynterbynumbers (#4)
My top pick improved second time put over a fast surface, now returns from almost two months and I think she will benefit a lot from the increase in distance. Rajiv Maragh rides back from trainer Kiaran Mc. Laughlin. Solent served as bridesmaid of a very impressive first time winner Alisio, now has that race under her belt and Manny Franco keeps going to the pond, teaming up again with Eclipse winning trainer Chad Brown. Paynterbynumbers will be looking to dictate the pace from the gitgo. Has already burned some good money in her only two starts, but if she is handed an easy lead, will be tough to go by.
5th race: 5½ Furlongs. ™‘MC 50000 Purse $46,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Bull Feathers (#12), Kathy’s Cause (#8), Street Chamber (#10)
Inscrutable race to say the least. Bull Feathers has shown speed against better horses and comes back from four months off working daylights. Rajiv Maragh prefers her over one of the likely favorites and that outside post can work wonders for her. Kathy’s Cause was in the midst of the pace in her most recent, in this same group. She should be prominent from the start. Street Chamber is a first time starts for trainer Bruce Levine, who hits at a 21 % rate with debut runners. Works have been average at best, but probably was saving her best for today.
6th race: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x Purse $75,000 (UP TO $13,050 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Preservationist (#2), Sir Ballantine (#1), Hammerin Ammer (#4)
Preservationist came away last off the gate in his last start and had some problems trying to get into the race. Now gets an easier group and he will be a tough cookie to chew if he comes off the gate cleanly. Junior Alvarado gets back on his saddle. Sir Ballantine loves Aqueduct, with four in the money placings in five starts. Today Franco should put him closer to the pace and he is my top pick’s bigger threat. Hammerin Ammer flunked in his last, but that was over a sloppy surface. If he can get a drier track, expect a better performance from him.
7th race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 10000 Purse $20,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Readyornothereicome (#9), T Loves a Fight (#2), Wage Acceleration (#7)
My favorite ran just a week ago and never lifted a hoof against a much saltier group. Now drops to the bottom, and Lauer hits at a 22% rate when sending a first time claimer. T Loves a Fight returns to a group in which he aired two races ago. Reylu Gutierrez has fored a good team with im and returns to the saddle. Wage Acceleration is an interesting proposition. The only time he ran on dirt he encountered a sloppy surface. He is been working lights out, was gelded after his last race and should be a hefty price on the board.
8th race: 1 Mile. ‘OC 25000n2x Purse $64,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Pete’s Project (#8), Papa Shot (#9), Horoscope (#4)
Top pick ran an even race first time over this oval, now he has the experience and shortens up in distance, which can be a plus, returning to a one turn race. Pap Shot has all the credentials; the problem is that he hasn’t win a race in a while. He keeps working steadily and nicely, can’t be overlooked. Horoscope receives a nice jockey upgrade, and this is the lowest quality of horses he has faced in along time. Franco keeps piling up the numbers at the Big A.
9th race: 1 1/8 Mile. Withers-G3 Withers S. Grade III. Purse $250,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
Tax (#1), Our Braintrust (#6), Admire (#4)
Running third just two and three quarter behind the very talented Maximus Mischief gives Tax the edge in this spot. Now he will not have to go after the early leader, as there is speed signed in, and, although Franco preferred the Pletcher horse, Alvarado is no slouch. He has the edge of the experience over this trip. Our Braintrust had to deal with Grade I winner Mind Control in the Jerome, now there are no Grade I winners in here and should benefit from a solid pace up front. Lezcano replaces Vargas on him and this is his first race for new trainer Mark Casse. Admire looks to be a promising colt. Looked good in Churchill breaking his maiden and after two and a half months he jumps his conditions to try this Grade III. Romans thinks highly of him.
10th race: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L Purse $28,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.
Hot Mesa (#2), I Love Jaxson (#4), Thefinalcrazydude (#12)
That last race for Hot Mesa, in which he crushed the field while graduating, gives him the edge against this suspect field. This is his first time facing this condition and he had a maintenance work in preparation. I Love Jaxson takes off the blinkers for the first time in quite a while and he has encountered two consecutive off tracks, reason for his poor performance. Davis returns to his saddle, he has run his best with him. Thefinalcrazydude is the fastest of them, but he has not been able to last the whole six furlongs facing non winners of two. Cancel tries him again.