Fall Meet is over and the Winter Meet started Thursday at the Big A, and we hope to have a much better meeting now, with turf racing starting to fade into obscurity. Nine races are in store, and the Garland of Roses is the feature, for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. Let’s get to the analysis:
1st race: 6½ Furlongs. ™‘MC 25000 Purse $33,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Fiveinthemorning (#7) – This is the first time that her connections run her with the intention of running in the dirt. Second start for trainer John Kimmel and she has been close to broke her maiden in groups that compare favorably to this one. David Cohen stays up.
Zecha (#4) – 0 for 11 is nothing to brag about, but she should be able to ensure a good early position, and, as I always tell you, there are no big late runs in these kind of races. Hector Diaz Jr., a very good young rider, takes over for trainer Bruce Levine.
Missbigtimes (#2) – Dropping sharply to the bottom, she was highly taught of at the start of her career. However, things have changed dramatically and after been vanned off two months ago, shows up here. Her last published work was almost a month ago, so there are still looming doubts with her.
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘Clm 20000 Purse $40,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
My Won Love (#6) – Takes a nice cutback in distance and should get a nice set up pace wise, with some very fast fillies burning themselves to rendition. Rudy Rodriguez has solid numbers bringing back a beaten favorite and Hector Diaz will be a force at this meeting.
Archumybaby (#3) – Gets back to a more realistic spot for her after performing nicely in groups much better than this one. She should sit a nice, garden spot trip from that number three hole, and this will be her third race for trainer Charlton Baker.
Sing for Beauty (#4) – Finger Lakes shipper that is compromised by the inclusion of Lady Bergen, another speedball. If she gets lucky and gets loose on an easy lead, she can be extremely dangerous.
3rd race: 6½ Furlongs. ™‘Mdn 62k Purse $62,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Fight On Lucy (#3) – Trainer Kelly puts blinkers on her for this one, and this will enable her to be more ready when the doors open. Also, first time signed up to run in the dirt, so there are solid positive signs with her, and Cohen stays on the saddle.
Midnitesalright (#2) – Has been knocking at the door for a win, and with the lack of speed in this group, she should be able to dictate the pace. Dylan Davis takes over for Manny Franco, who is riding at Gulfstream today, and Jason Servis keeps winning races in bunches.
Princess Pinky (#1) – Good showing at a mile and one sixteenth on her most recent effort. Now takes a cutback to six and a half and should have the stamina to be right there in the stretch. Luis Reyes takes over for Hall of Famer Johnny V.
4th race: 1 Mile. ‘Mdn 60k Purse $60,000 FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Not That Brady (#8) – He ran hard every step on that last race, putting taxing fractions along the way. Has three works since that date and if Gutierrez can rate him somewhat, he will be a tough beat on Saturday.
Alphastest (#6) – Seems to me that his pedigree cries for more dirt than turf, and he ran creditably enough in that lone run over the lawn. Trainer George Weaver hits at a 19% clip when switching to the main track, and that last work signals readiness.
Overland (#10) – Was gelded after his debut, in a race in which he didn’t do all that bad. Now has more ground to work with and Cox looks to end this career year on a positive note. Has four breezes in preparation for this date.
5th race: 6 Furlongs. ™GrlndORosL100K Garland of Roses S. Purse $100,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Dream Pauline (#1) – She had a very tough time on her return race, being shut down inside twice and then having to circle horses to have some daylight to run. Now she has that race under her belt, speed in front of her and fewer horses to run against. Very good last breeze down at Belmont, she should be ready to fire a big shot.
Vertical Oak (#5) – She is not flashy, but the main thing is that she keeps winning. All her wins have come at this same distance, and of course, she is the filly to beat in this race. Good outside post that will allow her to watch a speed duel develop. Her regular jockey is not in, Cancel is a suitable replacement, but is a factor to ponder.
Sower (#3) – She is maybe the fastest of this salty group, and if they let her loose up front, she can take them wire to wire. She has been working steadily during the mornings and Linda Rice excels with these filly sprinters.
6th race: 6 Furlongs. ‘Clm 25000 Purse $48,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Ultimateenticement (#6) – This race is a puzzle, so I will go with somewhat of a sentimental pick. This horse was in the barn of the late Rick Violette. Michelle Nevin takes over and immediately drops him to a competitive spot for him. Has logged three works since that last effort and I expect an improved race out of him.
Blue Belt (#5) – The last time he faced this same group he just missed after hitting the gate. He maybe the speed of the speed here so watch out for a wire-to-wire job from apprentice Gutiérrez.
Bavaro (#8) – This is the first time this horse is racing for a tag, and, although those last two races left a lot to be desired, the horses on this field are not at the same level as the ones he was facing. Alvarado stays on him after that last bad race, a sign of confidence.
7th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) ™Alw 70000n1x Purse $70,000 OUTER TURF (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Glossy (#1) – Tough post once again, but I think Alvarado will try to put her closer to the lead this time, and I don’t see that much early foot in here, so she should be able to get into a very nice stalking position and finish the job in the stretch.
Miss Mystique (#9) – This filly is one that has shown some speed and stamina to go along with. Interesting for me is that Rajiv Maragh, her regular rider, ends up riding in another filly. Won last time out at gigantic 34-1 odds, should be a much shorter price on Saturday.
Sweet Offer (#6) – Coming back from more than three months on the shelf, Rajiv Maragh prefers to ride her to the filly I just talked about. With only seven races lifetime, she still has a right to improve, and should be ready to fire off the bench.
8th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Alw 70000n1x Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Our Circle of Love (#7) – After four-second place finishes in her first four starts, she finally came thru in her last race, winning by daylight. The light bulb angle is in effect, and I believe that if she repeats that effort, she will be a very tough beat in here.
Pauseforthecause (#1) – Draws the rail once more, but from that same post she ran the race of her life, losing by just a length to Highway Star, who would be a heavy favorite in here. She has two stellar works since that day and if she can find the space on the rail, she will be right there at the wire.
Byself (#5) – Another filly that was trained by the deceased Rick Violette. This one has shown nice talent and had had to overcome some tough posts along the way. Comes back working steadily and nicely for new conditioner Michelle Nevin.
9th race: 6 Furlongs. ‘MC 25000 Purse $33,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Valmont (#7) – In his first race in over a year, he went to the lead and faltered on the stretch. Now has that race under his belt, goes on Lasix and takes a cutback in distance. Just last week, he worked a bullet at Belmont, so you know his condition is better than the vast majority of these horses.
Unsullied (#14) – In this very weak bunch, he is the one that has faced the condition the least amount of times, just once. The outside post does him no favors, so Gutiérrez will have to be crafty for his horse not to lose a considerable amount of ground.
Devilry (#5) – Has been a beaten favorite in this same group in his last two starts, but with not that much speed signed in, he can take them deep into the stretch if not pressured at the start of the race. He keeps working very good for this kind of horses.