GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 478: 109-93-82, -20.4% ($956 wagered, $761.40 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.8%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.4%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
TOTAL: 30: 4-5-8, -61% ROI ($60 wagered, $23.40 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
Race 1
6 – Cavardossi – didn’t fare well over the wet track last out and is very erratic in the PP’s, but I think the speed figures are there on the right day and I trust the Atras barn and Junior to get him in the right spot. The Chad first-timer is a $400k Into Mischief purchase will take money, I just like the experienced horse at a better price. 6-2-3
Race 2
3 – Customerexperience – Chad Brown had her cranked up on debut and she just got home last month over this very same Aqueduct oval, but Linda Rice was able to get a claim in and steal this one away. Could it be a rare mistake by Chad in the claiming ranks? Sure looks that way, and I like her to come back and take this group down as well for a barn that hits on 25% of their first-claim runners. 3-5-4
Race 3
5 – Moneymeister – taking a swing with the Fingerlakes shipper, which we’ve learned is a dangerous angle at the Spa all summer in the claiming ranks. What that means in Queens in December I’m not sure, but I like the speed figures and the front-running style, and he has three wins over today’s six-panel distance in eight career tries. Price will be very fair as well. 5-6-1
Race 4
7 – Joe’s Smokin Gun – ran a big figure to no avail at the Big A last month, but was claimed by Rudy for his efforts and returns today for a barn that absolutely crushes it with first-claim runners at Aqueduct. He has two wins locally and draws outside in a speedy field, so let’s see if he can re-gain his old form and get the money today.
7-3-1
Race 5
4 – Rally Cap – another first time claim for Linda Rice (a 25% angle), this one coming off a brutal start last-out In June. He did win at seven panels two-back in the slop at Belmont , and hopes the return to Queens (5: 1-1-3) proves to be the correct move for a new barn that knows how to handle these runners. 4-9-10
Race 6
8 – Scoreswhenhewants – he has produced at this level at Delaware back in the summer, and the last two tries on turf have been commendable. He has the versatility to be near the lead or in that stalking role, and I like the outside-ish draw going the one-turn mile. Brad Cox hits at 32% second-off this break, and always has them sharp going from the lawn to the dirt (25%). Loses Irad but picks up Lezcano, which is never a bad thing at the Big A.
8-9-5
Race 7
1 – Wicked Trick – TONS of early speed in what could be the best race on the card. Going six panels I love the inside draw if the plan is to let those outside speed horses duel early, and Lezcano beautifully navigated a similar trip last-out in a level just below what he faces today. He’s 2 for 2 since Linda Rice made the claim back in July upstate, and I love his chances to sit a stalk-and-pounce trip here today. 1-3-2
Race 8
8 – Captain Bombastic – if the race prior is the best “race” of the day, this one certainly takes the crown for biggest opportunity of the day, as $500k is on the line for 2YO’s in the New York Stallion Series. There looks to be a decent amount of horses who don’t belong in here, and I’ve zeroed in on the Jeremiah Englehart colt who has picked up wins in each of his first two starts this fall. He’s cutting back from the Belmont mile to six furlongs here today, and he’s been rated beautifully in both wins this year. The works are very sharp and I think Junior is sitting on a live one today. 8-13-5
Race 9
6 – Microscope – Goes out for Pletcher after a very impressive maiden placing considering the horrible break, and I like his chances for a barn that connects on 26% of their second-time runners. 6-2-4
Have a great Saturday everyone!