Race 1
2 – Exulting – works have been consistent and sharp since the 2/7 try off the layoff, and with the inside draw he should sit a nice ground-saving trip for Dylan Davis.
4 – Driven to Compete – two for two at the distance and gets the services of Franco today for the second try off the nine-month break. Will likely be pushed from the bell and try to wire them, but perhaps a bit too much speed in here for that? Still like his chances.
3 – Timber Ghost – tries the mile for the first time today, but the form is great and the works indicate another big effort. Short price but a must-use to start the pick 5.
Race 2
5 – Awe Honey – won the debut against a weak field but did so impressively on the lead. Makes the move to the Contessa barn and could improve further here.
7 – Floss Dancer – tried listed stakes company two back, broke poorly and that was that. Let’s draw a line through that one as she gets back to her level today and brings some nice speed figures with her.
1 – Bee’snbee’s – got out of MSW company for the last two and improved rather drastically. Should have a chance to find a spot early here, let’s see if she can string together another solid effort.
Race 3 – The Bridgetown
1 – Regally Irish – won the career debut at the Jersey Shore last August on a fast track, but since then his best two starts have clearly come on the grass. Has early zip and draws inside, could be the formula to get out and never look back.
3 – Skole – if my top choice does find himself up front, this one won’t be far behind. Speedster very well could steal the front-end and make this a pace duel, which could set it up for….
2 – Wonder Stone – the lightly-raced Wesley Ward filly has won two of her three career starts, picks up Franco today and could sit a perfect trip just off the two speed demons.
Race 4
1 – Brockthebank – drops in class, draws inside and should be near the pace early without much company. I expect this one to wire the field.
4 – Morgantown – Breen is having a nice meet and brings in this one for the career debut. The works have been consistent and the combo with rider Cancel has hit at a % clip locally.
9 – Coolboy – drops in class again and cuts back in distance, outside post should allow a nice trip.
Race 5
4 – Clairvoyant Lady – 7 for 7 ITM at the Big A and 5 for 6 ITM at today’s distance, this Linda Rice mare almost always shows up to run . Barn hits at almost 20% off these layoffs as well, and Franco is back.
2 – Nisha – makes a pretty big drop here after a rough try against stiff competition, but the break could be just what she needed as the Gargan barn excels off the layoff (24%) and with their debut runners (32%).
1 – Picture Day – hasn’t caught a fast track in almost a year, so maybe today stays dry and the mare will relish the opportunity? Has some success at the Big A and likes the distance.
Race 6
4 – Singular Sensation – works look good and Henning hits at a nice 15% clip with first-time runners. Bravo gets the mount, and he’s 2 for 6 when riding for this barn this year.
2 – Bank Examiner – the debut came at Saratoga last July where she drew outside in a field of 10, and she never got going. The Englehart barn hits at 25% on layoffs like this, and 28% with maiden-second-timers. Works have been sharp and she looks ready.
8 – Doll – despite Servis’ struggles with first-timers in NY recently, he still hits them at 27% overall and gets the services of Franco for the debut trip. Have to respect.
Race 7
6 – Overnegotiate – has won 3 of 9 turf starts and does so showing early speed. Could find herself alone up front early, and at this price I’m taking a swing that she gets it done on the return to the lawn.
4 – Bareeqa – 17 for 31 ITM lifetime, with 23 of those starts coming on the grass. She’s liked the Big A turf and has won 3 times at today’s distance. Could be odds-on, and we’re not dropping her out of the exacta.
7 – Devilish Romance – conflicting Rudy stats here, as he’s great 1st off the claim (32%) but struggles with the same runners on turf. The works look OK, and as always for me any horse gets an upgrade when I see Franco aboard in NY.
Race 8 – The Top Flight Invitational
5 – My Miss Lilly – went from the Kentucky Oaks to the Mother Goose, then took almost eight months off before returning to OC company at Gulfstream two months ago. She had a tough trip in there, but has worked well since and appears ready to run today. Looks like a lot of speed in here, so her stalking ability should be on display and I expect her to get the money at a nice price.
2 – Another Broad – Pletcher and Franco team up here to try and continue their lethal combo locally (32%) with a runner that should also benefit from the fast pace. Look for a similar stalking trip to my top selection, and this exacta could pay nice if they can connect.
4 – Frostie Anne – she’s my pick to get the early lead, and though she’ll have company her class shows that she can handle it and I think she stays for a piece (if not the whole thing).
Race 9
9 – Capt. Courageous – don’t love this race, but I love the first-time stats for the barn on turf, and Franco takes the mount. If he can clear the two to his outside I like his chances on the turn.
6 – Mungoose – didn’t fire as a favorite in the debut but the barn is lethal (25%) with maiden-seconds and the price is right here.
8 – Dove Shoot – LONG break but has worked sharp and debuts for the Nevin barn off the summer claim today. Should show speed here.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 4/6/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Week 16 (2/23) – 9: 1-1-1, -65% ROI ($18 wagered, $6.30 returned)
- Week 17 (3/2) – 8: 2-2-2, -13.8% ROI ($16 wagered, $13.80 returned)
- Week 18 (3/9) – 11: 2-3-2, -30.5% ROI ($22 wagered, $15.30 returned)
- Week 19 (3/23) – 9: 5-1-1, 72.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $31.10 returned)
- Week 20 (4/6) – 11: 2-1-4, -44% ROI ($22 wagered, $12.30 returned)
- Total: 185: 44-34-22, -16.8% ROI ($370 wagered, $307.90 returned)
- Win Rate = 23.7%
- ITM Rate = 54.1%