Aqueduct Racing Analysis- Jan 19 2019- By Ivan Lopez

We have lost our touch at Aqueduct over the last two weeks, but there are nine races today to try to get of the schneid. This week’s feature is the Grade III Toboggan for older sprinters. Let’s get to the races:

1st race: 6 Furlongs. ™Mdn 68k Purse $68,000 (UP TO $11,832 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

Shangai Bonnie (#2) – Second off the layoff for trainer James Lawrence, she should be much fitter for this race after failing as the favorite in her return race. The relative quick turn around gives me confidence and she will be dangerous operating from the garden spot.

Up At Dawn (#3) – First time starter sired by ultra sire Uncle Mo for trainer Mark Hennig, her works suggest she is ready to fire first time out, and will be a hot commodity on the betting windows.

Fangirl (#1) – Coming off a nearly four month shelf stay, she is working daylights for trainer John Terranova (21% coming off 90 days plus), she will wear blinkers for the first time and can be the speed of the speed of this contest.

2nd race: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 14000n3L Purse $28,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.

Incubator (#3) – That last race was very impressive considering the quality of this group. He ran hard all the way thru the wire, and today’s he seems to be the controlling speed once again. Eric Cancel was on his saddle for that race and he will ride once again for trainer Kelly Breen.

Sandy Lane (#4) – This is a Laurel shipper that will need a hot pace upfront for that late push to be effective. The mile and an eighth will definitely fit him to a T and he will be picking up the pieces late in the stretch.  

Call Me (#5) – Still has not faced this condition of non winners of three and will be able to follow the early speedsters from a cozy garden spot position. Manny Franco keeps the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher, and this group should be more of his liking.

3rd race: 7 Furlongs. ™Clm 32000 Purse $50,000 (UP TO $8,700 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Clairvoyant Lady (#3) – The last time this filly ran against this group, she won convincingly, and Manny Franco was on her saddle. He returns to ride after two races at Laurel in which she was facing tougher fillies.

Madame Barbarian (#7) – The race sets up fine for this filly, who will be watching the early leaders go into an early fight and will come flying in the stretch. She takes nice lil cutback in distance and Jose Lezcano takes over, a sizable upgrade in jockey.

Aikenetta (#4) – She has been running versus much better fillies. Dropping off now to a group in which she can be more competitive, she should be forwardly placed from the start and Luis Reyes knows her well. Dangerous.

4th race: 1 Mile. ™MC 40000 Purse $41,000 (UP TO $7,134 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

Stay Smart (#3) – Solid race last time out despite being parked way outside for a good portion of the race. Cancel rides back and as always, I like the quick turnaround in these claimer races. Just fired a bullet five days ago.

Redouble (#1) – First race for new trainer Rudy Rodriguez after running at Gulfstream Park West, he got a nice two month freshening before running here at New York. Has been working steadily and Franco gets the call. Should be forwardly placed from the gitgo.

Rockin Emmzy (#7) – Claimed by Linda Rice three weeks ago, she immediately send her to the track, indicating she is feeling good. If she can have a clear easy lead, she can be long gone. Watch out for a wire job.

5th race: 7 Furlongs. Toboggan-G3 Toboggan S. Grade III. Purse $100,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Sklylar’s Scramjet (#2) – Second race off the layoff for trainer Michelle Nevin, he is an Aqueduct specialist, with four of his five wins coming in this oval. Dylan Davis repeats on his saddle and he now has a lil more ground to work with.

Bal Harbour (#4) – Has been a solid performer since coming back from a seven month rest, with two wins, and that third place in his most recent maybe was his best effort of all. Will be right there in the first flight and with a great chance of scoring.

Solid Wager (#5) – Very interesting placing for this horse, who just ran sixteen days ago at Santa Anita. Now trained by Chris Englehart, he will need a hot pace to have a chance here, and maybe he will have it. He has been running against very seasoned horses at California.

6th race: 1 Mile. ™Clm 14000n3L Purse $28,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.

Twofer (#8) – Very tough race to come up with the winner. I’ll go with a filly that should be prominent from the start, as we don’t see that much speed in here. Also, this is the first time she is facing this condition and Junior Alvarado gets the call.

Princess Mikayah (#6) – Have experimented an improvement since Luis Reyes took over the riding, last time out she was wide on the turns. With some further moving up, she can be a nice surprise to beging the Late Pick 4.

Miss Loyalty (#4) – She flunked as the favorite on her most recent, but makes a very quick turn around and Dylan Davis will take the call for trainer Toscano. I suspect he will be sending her hard from the start and let’s see how long she lasts.

7th race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000 Purse $46,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Have Another (#2) – He was eased just twelve days ago and trainer Barker gives him an easy breeze in preparation. The last time he ran been risked for a tag, he aired against a group better than this one. Is fine to have doubts on him, but I expect a good race from him.

Four Freedoms (#5) – Trainer Englehart gave him a bit of a freshener and comes back with three easy works for this event. The main thing is that Davis keeps going to the pond, and he should be right in the early fray from the bell.

Felix in Fabula (#4) – Another one who ran a few days ago, a week to be exact, and now comes back to a group in which he will be competitive. Needs some pace up front and he should get it, and Maragh still rides after losing by 23 lengths.

8th race:  1 1/8 Mile. ‘OC 25000n2x Purse $64,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY

Cause I’m Alex (#5) – He likes the nine furlong distance, with two wins and three thirds in six tries, and will be coming from way off he pace in this one. Dylan Davis takes over the reins and now will be facing a group more in line with his abilities.

Calculated Risker (#7) –  Should be a clear favorite if we look at his PPs before those last two races. Dropping from the allowance and state bred stakes ranks, just has one work in preparation, a definite cause for concern.

Peter’s Project (#4) – Finger Lakes shipper that can be the controlling speed of the race, and he has seventeen lifetime wins and three in a row, so he knows how to get the job done. Watch out if he can get a clear lead.

9th race: 1 Mile. Clm 12500 Purse $25,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Planet Trailblazer (#6) – Parx shipper that has been showing steady improvement, and the fact that Servis sends him to New York indicates he has confidence in him. Servis hits at a 44% clip when repeating in a claimjng race.

Avast Matey (#8) – Second start after a seven month break, that last work at Belmont indicates he is ready for a much better showing now. He can be the speed of the speed and Davis takes the call for trainer Ryerson.

Samadi Sky (#4) – Ran well in that most recent race at odds of 19-1, just sixteen days ago. This is a horse that can be the super longshot in this race, don’t discount him totally.

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