1/11- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
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Top Pick Results 2019: 6-2-1-0
Top Pick Results overall: 48-12-12-7
Race 1- 2,6,4
War of the States has shown early speed in her past 2 starts and is adding blinkers today which I think will be the difference. She finished 3rd last time out at this distance and today is carrying less weight because of apprentice jockey Gutierrez in the Irons who I have become a fan of over the past few months.
Lady Hester on paper looks tough here, but I think last time might have been her time. She finished 2nd last time out at this distance, but had no excuse. Today there is more early speed and with her morning line odds of 6-5, I will try and beat her on the win.
Taking Aim goes out for Linda Rice and was wide in a 2nd place finish here last time out. She gets Lezcano in the irons today and should be forwardly placed. She will need to improve a lot though to beat this field, so using her underneath.
Race 2- 5,1,4
Cookie Crisp was 0 for 13 in 2018, but I am taking the “new year, new me” approach with him. In those 13 starts he finished 2nd 6 times and at this distance he has a career record of 7-1-3-1. He gets Maragh back in the irons today who rode him to a near win back on November 24th here at this distance where he finished only ½ length behind the winner.
Purchasing Power is going to be a very short price with the team of Manny Franco and Chad Brown, but I think he is beatable so I am only including on my multi’s. He is cutting back in distance today, but was a heavily beaten favorite last time out at 1-1/8th here where he finished 2nd, but was a non factor. Yes he could win, but I don’t think he lays over this field like the morning line odds suggest he does.
Never Before is shipping in from Finger Lakes and should be a price. He gets a jockey upgrade to Dylan Davis, and is dropping in here for a tag. With tactical speed, and the 2 morning line favorites being camera shy, he fits and will provide value.
Race 3- 4,2,1
Flush is going out for Kiaran McLaughlin for the 2nd time today and Kiaran is 23% with maiden 2nd time starters. She was wide throughout in her debut and finished 5th out of 10, but today with a race under her belt I think she will improve. She also gets Maragh back in the irons today which is something I like to see.
Harley Q was on my ticket back at Saratoga when she finished a disappointing 4th. Today she is coming back off the long layoff to face weaker. I put her 2nd today because St Lewis Uriah is not known at all for horses in this spot with these conditions, so I think she might need a race. Using on my multi’s, but trying to beat with the win.
September Gurl was hard to handle early last time out and was a non factor. Today she gets a jockey change to Gutierrez so she is carrying less weight, and today she is back on the inside after breaking from post 7 last time out.
Race 4 – 3,2,5
Harkness was my top pick last time out and ran a game 2nd at 8-1. Today she is dropping a bit in class but is staying at the same distance. She has tactical speed to be dangerous late against this field and I am giving her another shot.
Daria’s Angel has early speed and loves Aqueduct. 3-2-1-0 career record here at Big A and gets a jockey upgrade to Junior Alvarado today. Trainer Rob Atras was a very successful trainer in Canada before coming here, so don’t let his lack of stats fool you. I am playing her on all my tickets.
Stay Fond last time out looked like her number of races may have caught up to her. Yes she finished 3rd, but she looked a step slow, and for her low odds I will use her defensively in multi’s, but I am trying to beat her for the win. She does love this distance though with 5 wins in 11 starts at 1 mile.
Race 5- 8,5,3
If Flush runs well in race 3 then Cheatham Hill is a must play and a possible single. She was 7 wide last time and finished strongly but had to settle for 2nd in the same race where Flush finished 5th. I also love the jockey change to Lezcano who should get her more involved early. The only negative on paper in my opinion is the outside post which for only her 2nd start is not ideal.
Countable finished 3rd in her debut back on 12/30 but it was not the strongest of races. Linda Rice has been hot this meet so it is hard to rule this one out against this field, but will need to show a solid improvement to beat the favorite here.
Lady Macho is a first time starter who has the pedigree for this 6f race. Her recent works are not impressive, but she did have a work back in October where she ran 3f in :36 seconds so I think she does have it and with adding Lasix today it could bring out her best form to date.
Race 6- 5
Bavaro is one favorite today that I am not going to try and beat and will be my single in the NYRA Bets Late Pick 5. Has run too good against better and with early speed should have no issues taking this bunch all the way around.
Race 7- 12,11,1
Ready to Escape gets Junior back in the irons today who rode him to his maiden win last time out here at Aqueduct and today is stretching out which I like. Did go gate to wire last time out, but has shown tactical speed in past races so I do not think he needs the early lead, but with a good break from the inside I expect him to go.
Dark Ops is adding blinkers today and has been working well since a poor effort back in November. I like the outside post here and gets Manny Franco in the irons.
Charlie McCoy could be the value of the day for Michelle Nevin. Has been off since Saratoga, but his 2 races when breaking from the inside have been solid. As long as he breaks well he should be a major factor in this race at a nice price.
Potential Pick 5 Wagers:
Early Pick 5: 2,4,6/1,4,5/1,2,4,5,8/2,3,5/8
$0.50 wager =$67.50
Nyra Bets Pick 5: 2,3,5/8/5/1,4,7,8,9,11/3,4,7,8,910
$0.50 wager =$54.00
*Other wagers will be posted on Twitter*