11/30- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
Bankroll: $50.00
Overall :-$122.25
Top Pick Results: 21-6-5-5
Race 1- 5,1,6
McErin is going from turf to dirt for Jason Jervis who is 36% this year with this move. There is a lot of speed in this one, but if McErin takes to the dirt he should be the fastest of them all and at 6F I will take a shot that he can wire this bunch.
Pocket Personality is the only horse in this group who is comfortable with closing late. I am not a fan of the rail with this much speed in here which is why I didn’t put him on top, but if the pace collapses this one will pick up the pieces.
Race 3- 10,3,8,13
Ave Malone is sired by Champion Curlin, and her dam is multiple G1 winner and 2014 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare turf winner Dayatthespa. I am not thrilled with post 10, but this one has been on my list of 2 years olds I have been waiting to debut.
Style and Grace is another Curlin sired filly trying the turf today, but she has 3 starts already under her belt and I think will benefit from the surface change. Anthony Dutrow is 22% this year going from turf to dirt and with a few Chad Brown horses in here, she should offer some value on the board.
Andi’s Kitten is a Ramsey owned and bred filly and is the other Chad Brown horse in this field which makes this one tough to throw out of multi and exotic wagers.
If Flying the Colors draws in on the turf I will use her in everything. Ran well in her debut at Churchill and today gets Jose Ortiz in the Irons.
Race 4- 8,5,3
I played Alisio in her debut back on 10/24 where she was simply 2nd best. McLaughlin is 24% this year with maiden 2nd time starters so I am giving her another shot today. I am also a fan of Saez remaining in the irons and the outside post.
Paynterbynumbers has a few impressive works and these Paynter sired 2 year olds have been winning over the past few months, so hard to rule this one out.
Coilean Bawn has an a great pedigree for this distance, but Clement is not exactly known for his 1st timers. This might be one to keep an eye on for a future race.
Race 5- *OFF Turf* -1 (Only play if 5th is off turf)
I am not a huge fan of race 5 if it remains on the turf, but if it comes off the turf and Singapore Trader does well, he should be your single for all your multi bets involving this race.
$10 to Win on 1
$20 to Place on 1
Race 6- 7,2,10,6
Hot Diggitty just missed last time out and I think 3rd time is the charm for this one. His last race is good enough to win here today and an improvement will make him very tough to beat.
True Gold has run in back to back stake races and now is dropping back down into a MSW which should result in an improved effort. Personally I think he will be coming late, but I think he wants longer then this distance.
Kadens Courage is stretching out today, and has finished in the money in all 4 career starts. He will need to improve a lot to win today, but for underneath he should provide some value.
Fleet Warrior should be a price and if you have room on your multi’s he is one that you should include if you aren’t sold on Hot Diggitty or True Gold. He goes out for trainer Timothy Hills who has a record of 7-3-1-1 so far this meet which is very impressive for only 7 starters.
Race 7 – 1,4,2
Best Performance has been working well and is getting back to the dirt today where Clement is 26% when switching from turf to dirt. She also has been running against much better and running well against them on the turf. She does have a record of 3-1-2-0 on the turf including 2 stake place finishes.
Face It is coming off a dominating win last time out to break her maiden as she got a very easy trip on the front end and ended up winning by 10. Today she shouldn’t get as easy of a trip with a step up in class, but she is the most likely winner in my opinion of Best Performance continues to be camera shy.
Wagers: On Turf ($50.00 Total)
Race 1: $5 Win on 5. $2 Exacta Box 1,5
Total $9.00
Race 3: $3 Double 3,8,10,13 / 5, 8
Total $24.00
Race 4: $5 Win on 8. $2 Exacta Box 8,5
Total $9.00
Race 6: $2 Double 2,7 / 1, 4
Total $ 8.00
Wagers: Off Turf ($50.00 Total)
Race 1: $5 Win on 5. $2 Exacta Box 1,5
Total $9.00
Race 4: $5 Win on 8. $2 Exacta Box 8,5. $5 Double 5,8 / 1
Total $19.00
Race 5: $10 Win on 1
Race 6: $2 Double 2,7 / 1, 4
Total $ 8.00
Race 7: 4 Win on #1
Total $4.00