Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Friday, November 22, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

It’s Friday and I am here pinch hitting for my good friend Chris. Let’s get it on quickly:

1st race: 10-7-2

These are fillies that have been competing against each other regularly, and none of them has been able to come thru with a win. Gracely (10) drops from straight maidens to maiden claimers, and Stidham scores at 33% doing so. There ia a first time starter out of the barn of George Weaver, Buddy’s Memory (7).) that does not have to be a world-beater to beat these and Manuel Franco takes the call for one of his favorite clients. Works have been solid enough to give her a fighting chance.  Jasminesque (2) completes the top 3, she is the only one that has shown some slight improvement over her last races. In the horizontal plays, hit the all button and go on to the next race, as any filly in here has a chance to score. 

2nd race: 5-3-2

Family Biz (5) improved last time out and drops for a tag for the first time in his life. He should be closely watching the speed duel up front.  Carthon (3) drops for a tag for the first time in quite some time, and is the beneficiary of a cut back in distance. The seven panels should serve him well. Absentee (2) ships from Parx after working a bullet for this race. Has been facing good horses up there and looks to be on the improving side. 

3rd race: 8-3-4

Nan’s Plan (8) returned to the races from a four-month layoff and didn’t move at all on the grass. Now trainer Gargan drops her sharply and returns her to the main track and that race now looks like a prep. Gargan scores high when switching surfaces. Pins and Needles (3) broke her maiden just last week and tries the dirt in a very weak group. Her recent form and upside potential puts her right in the mix. Red Hot Dame (4) looked like a winner last time out in a similar group, now gets the services of Jose Ortiz, specially good with speed type horses. 

4th race: 1-6-5

Lost Ticket (1) goes second time out for Bill Mott, whose better now than in debut runs. She showed nice late foot in her debut, on a less than firm surface. Orsay (6) burned some money in her debut, now Brown switches her to the grass, where the progeny of American Pharoah has been doing better. She now has more ground to work with. Cherokee Song (5) has the experience factor in her favor, with five races already under her belt. She seems to be a stayer, let’s see if she can have pace to work. 

5th race: 2-5-1

Royal Albert Hall (2) comes back from a three plus months rest in a group much lighter than the ones he was facing. He won a stakes races last time he ran in the Big A, so you know he likes the strip and Franco repeats after losing by more than 50 lengths with him. Playthatfunnymusic (5) has won two straight, now has to face tougher foes but he is on an upswing and should be forwardly placed from the start. Guns of Steel (1) is another one dropping sharply, he is the speed of the speed, but those last two races leaves a lot to be desired. 

6th race: 5-4-1

Stare Decisis (5) was gobbling up ground late in his debut, now has an additional furlong to work with. Irad and Chad form a potent combo and looks like this one is solid in here. Betterment (4) seems to be the controlling speed, if he can negotiate that additional distance and finds a firm course, he can be dangerous. Malthael (1) has been the beaten favorite in his last two, but now has Joel Rosario in his irons and him and Clement have been a very effective combo lately. Watch out!

7th race: 4-8-2

Don’t see speed that can go with New Year’s Wish (4) from the gitgo, so she has a very notable pace advantage in here. Lezcano should put her at or near the lead and will be tough to catch. My Roxy Girl (8) is an Aqueduct specialist, with 5 wins and 5 seconds in 17 starts, and looks to be in tiptop shape. Linda Rice has the top two choices, both with good speed out of the blocks, but don’t see them fighting into submission. Honor Way (2) found the stakes race in which she ran last time out too tough for her, now comes back to a much more feasible group for her. Jose Ortiz has a win with her already. 

8th race: 1-6-9

First time starter Super Wicked Charm (1) gets my top pick, with works good enough to have a successful debut run for trainer Steve Asmussen. Victory Boulevard (6) had some trouble firs time out, looks to improve on that effort but Franco preferred the Asmussen trainee.  My Sacred Place (9) is the one to beat by looking at the past performances, but don’t like what I see from his work tab, just one work per month and very slow each of them. 

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