Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Friday, November 15, 2019, by Chris Felts

We’ve seen a lot of really good racing action so far at the Big A and that continues today, 10 races on tap with the first post time at 12:00 P.M. We figure to be fast and firm today, and as always be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.

Through 19 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 159-39-33-31 (25% win, 65% ITM) 

Race 1 CLM 14k N3L 3up, 1 mile

Multi Race- A: 5  B: 3

Top pick- #5 Booby Trap

  • He’s taking a slight class drop and has won at the mile distance before. Eric Cancel stays on which is promising and he finds a weak bunch to run against here.

Second choice- #3 Vintage Hollywood

  • Don’t like him enough at even money to make him my top pick but he will be favored because of the drop down from the n1x level. After a trainer switch and now the class drop, one has to wonder if they’re just trying to get rid of him. Playing against.

Underneath- #4 Beach Access

Race 2 AOC 62.5k n2x fillies and mares 3up, 1 mile turf

Multi Race- A: 4,7 B: 6

Top pick- #7 War Canoe 

  •  Figures to be second choice behind the Chad Brown horse and 5-2 is a decent price here. Drops back to the n2x condition condition after running into the talented Fifty Five when trying stakes company, and has enough late speed to be contentious late.

Second choice- #4 Kreesie

  • David Donk has two live ones in here and this is one of them (the other is the 6). Last out winner at the n1x allowance level with Eric Cancel who stays aboard today, will be coming from off the pace and running late. 

Underneath- #6 Matty’s Magnum, #9 Arabella Bella

Race 3 MSW 70k fillies 2yo, 1 mile

Multi Race- A: 3 B: 1,6 

Top pick- #3 Water White

  • Probably should have broken her maiden by now but has faced other classy fillies like Finite and Maedan (both next out winners). Keeps Irad aboard and has the speed to make her a strong single in multis, but don’t expect much of a price. Anything above even money would be great here.

Second choice- #1 Persisto

  • Was entered in a maiden special weight on Thursday but scratched out of that in favor of today. Ships over from Monmouth and gets a positive jock upgrade to Castellano. Now has experience under her belt and the speed to be competitive today. 

Underneath- This is a short 6 horse field so use the all button or move on.

Race 4 CLM 14k N3L fillies and mares 3up, 6.5 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 7,8 B: 3,4 

Top pick- #8 Dirty Bird

  • 3-1 is a nice price if you can get it here, last race she was nailed at the wire but 2nd off the trainer switch she is improving in form as a lightly raced 3 year old.

Second choice- #7 Sister Emily

  • Longshot play at 12-1 ML, her recent form is actually pretty decent if you toss her last race. Benji Hernandez has won on her before and she has a versatile running style that should have her in the mix late. Most likely will be on the front end and needs some pace to help her cause.

Underneath- #2 Tayler’s the Boss, #3 Movie Score, #4 Whyisshesoolucky

Race 5 MCL 25k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 6.5 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 6,7 B: 2 

Top pick- #7 Gray Witch

  • Showed some speed on debut in the slop before being outrun by longshot Wailin Josie; its worth noting that she came right back to win another race as a longshot again. Has some experience now and will get a chance over fast dirt today. Anything around 5-1 is a nice price come post time.

Second choice- #6 Its a Ford

  • First off the claim for Rob Atras who brings her to the NYRA circuit and finds a nice spot to run in today. Lezcano jumps on and she should be able to sit right off the pace.

Underneath- #2 Irish Banker

Race 6 MSW 62k state bred fillies 2yo, 1 1/16 miles turf

Multi Race- A: 6,8 B: 4,11 

Top pick- #6 Beyond Brown

  • Another David Donk longshot that has a good chance here. Had a pretty rough trip last time out and still finished fourth behind some pretty classy fillies. Has the chance to improve and Irad figures to have her in the mix today.

Second choice- #8 Pandamom

  • She looks to be the best first time starter and morning line odds reflect that. Being by Uncle Mo and having a 403 turf tomlinson number certainly helps. Best to watch the toteboard with her.

Underneath- #3 Moana’s Tale, #4 Malibu Too, #11 Honey Bourbon

*I would include #14 I’m Fine in multis should she draw in*

Race 7 CLM 25k fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 2,10 B: 8,11 

Top pick- #2 Sierra Aleone

  • She has won before coming off the layoff and trainer Thomas Bush knows how to get his horses ready after long rests. 4 year old filly has every right to put up a career best effort.

Second choice- #10 La Piu Bella 

  • Laurel shipper posted her career top beyer last out and has a chance to improve again today. Jock upgrade to Jose Ortiz and has a versatile running style that makes her competitive against this tough bunch with a lot of speed. The class relief from the n1x allowance level will help too. 6-1 is a nice ML price.

Underneath- 1/1A Entry, #6 China Rider, #8 A Dixie Twister, #11 Pugilist

Race 8 ALW 75k n1x fillies and mares 3up, 6.5 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 4,7 B: 2,6

Top pick- #7 Concerned

  • Lightly raced filly for Mark Hennig, his last race you can toss because it was in the mud and she got a bad break. Broke her maiden on debut where she wired the field going 1:09.4 so she has the speed to be competitive today as she gets an added furlong to work with.

Second choice- #4 Kept True

  • May just go off as the favorite and will be tough to beat. Jose Ortiz has won on her before at the n1x level and her recent form has been good as she drops back down to her eligible condition.

Underneath- #2 Break Curfew, #6 Alisio

Race 9 CLM 40k 3up, 1 mile turf

Multi Race- A: 2,5 B: 6,9 

Top pick- #5 Wicked Freud

  • 7 year old gelding for Jason Servis is in good form and his last race got an awkward start so you can forgive him for that effort. Finds a contentious group of claimers here and has the late speed to be competitive.

Second choice- #2 Lucky Ramsey

  • Gets back to the grass and hopes to run as well as he did in his race 3 back, has enough late speed where he can be coming down the lane if he gets the right trip.

Underneath- #6 Hieroglyphics, #9 Krewe Chief

Race 10 MCL 40k fillies 2yo, 6 furlongs turf

Multi Race- A: 5,8 B: 3,4 

Top pick- #8 Keypit

  • 12-1 longshot to round out the day here, I like the fact that Lezcano rides her after riding her in debut, her last race was pretty good even being an off track race and I’ll take a shot with a bomb to close things out.

Second choice- #5 Jen’s Battle

  • 2-1 ML favorite has flashed speed at the maiden special level and Dylan Davis does well at this time of year when it comes to turf sprints. Will appreciate getting back to the grass after her last race was washed off.

Underneath- #3 La Negrita, #4 Surprise Arrival, #7 Miss Gold Medalist

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