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Top Pick Results 2019: 32-13-4-4
2019 Overall: -$10.50
Top Pick Results overall: 73-23-16-11
Race 1- 6,1,5
Mutaraabit is shipping in from Parx and is coming off a good 3rd place finish by only a length last time out. He gets a jockey upgrade to Dylan Davis today and trainer Michael Pino has only had 1 other starter here this meet but finished 2nd. I also like the outside post with this one, not to mention that he is owned and was bred by Shadwell.
Zealous is camera shy and I am done putting this one on top until he beats me. Is the 1-1 morning line favorite today and was a 5 length beaten favorite last time out with no excuses. I wouldn’t toss this one out of the Pick 5, but if you are just playing Win tickets I would take a shot against him with his track record.
Replicator has only had 2 starts but neither have been good. No excuses in either race and for being a $520K Purchase seems like things are not panning out for this one. Chad Brown on the dirt is not the most reliable, but if this one is above 2-1 I would use him on your multi’s.
Race 2 – 3,1,5
Shook Em Up goes out for James Jerkens who is 39% when stretching horses out from Sprint to a route and this one has a race 2 back here at Aqueduct that makes him competitive against this field, especially against the top 2 choices who are very inconsistent and will be short prices. I would by no means single here, but at a price I will take a stab against the top 2 who have had no excuses as of late.
Run for Boston was my top pick in his last 2, and both his last 2 races he just simply was not good enough. He is dropping back down today and while his speed figures make him dangerous in here, he always seems to be coming too little too late, so I don’t like the cut back. Will be one of the top 2 choices here, so I will include on my early Pick 5, but I am trying to beat this one.
There He Goes is the morning line 6-5 favorite here for Danny Gargan who is red hot right now, but I am skeptical of this one. He has finished 2nd in his last 2, but he only has ever run 1 mile one time in his career and it was a poor performance. He also was previously trained by Gargan back in 2017 and he failed to win in all 7 of his previous starts for him. If the 3 does not get out of the gate early, there is a chance that There He Goes is the controlling speed and has a shot to wire this field which is why I am including him on my Pick 5 but am taking a stand against on the win ticket.
Race 3-1,2,4
Dirty Bird is dropping back down to claiming company for Jeremiah Englehart who is 25% in claiming races. She also gets Junior back in the Irons who rode her to victory 2 starts back here at Aqueduct at this distance. Even though she lost her last race, she was against much tougher and ran a career best speed figure. If she improves off that effort she will be tough here.
Ma Meatloaf is stretching out today as the morning line favorite and I think she is beatable. Nothing about her past races to me suggest that she wants to go 1 mile as she always seems to lose momentum after 6f. She is also going out for Jeremiah Englehart who is too good in claiming races to toss of exotic and multi tickets.
Saratoga Style should be a price in here for Gary Contessa and is dropping back down in class which should help. She does have 1 race at this distance where she ran 2nd by a nose against similar back in November. She fits and should provide value on wagers.
Race 4 – 1A,6,2
Avalina goes out for Danny Gargan and gets Manny Franco in the irons for her debut race. Her works are okay, but Gargan is 32% in Maiden Claiming races, although he is only 12% with first timers. The deciding factor on using this one on top for me is the combo of Gargan and Manny, they are 42% at Aqueduct which makes Avalina too dangerous to leave off tickets.
Karabessa has finished 2nd in her last 2, and while I think it would be a stretch for her to win today, I would not be surprised if she picked up pieces in the exotics.
Big Brown Cat has early speed and if she gets alone early she could take this field all the way around. I see other speed in here so I don’t think she will win, but I think she holds on for a piece.
Race 5 – 7,8,4
Promise Me Roses goes out for Rob Atras who is red hot since coming to Aqueduct. Simona looks tough in here as the favorite, but if there is a horse in this field who can play upset it is Promise me Roses because everything coming out of this barn is running. Atras is 3 for 4 this meet with horses coming back off wins. Also adding Junior in the irons is promising after losing Manny to Simona.
Simona looks tough here but is 0 for her last 12 so taking a small stand against her. These are the spots that Rudy is known for and with Manny in the irons she is a must use on all multi tickets, but for the win I will take a small stand against.
Diamond Jen Brady in my opinion is the best of the rest. She has tactical speed which I think could get her an on the board finish, and for trifectas and supers she should provide value.
Race 6 – 7,5,3
Thenorthremembers is a Klaravich owned horse trained by Chad Brown with Manny in the irons. Besides the Game of Thrones reference which is already going to take money, this one has connections that make him a must play. Is concerning that they paid $350K as a yearling for this one and now is debuting for a 50K tag, but that is a risk I am willing to play this one knowing.
Gallant Bid goes out for Linda Rice with Dylan Davis in the irons for his debut and this one has a very solid pedigree for this distance. His workouts have not been impressive at all, and again he is one who was purchased for hire then then claiming tag of 50K today which is a concern, but this jockey trainer combo is 32% this at Aqueduct which is hard to rule out here.
Loverboy Lou is coming off a bullet work and does have a pair of 70+ Beyer’s in the past, but as the morning line 6-5 favorite I am trying to beat this one. He has run out of steam in each of his 4 starts before the finish line and I don’t see why today should be different. Use defensively if you need too, but I think my first 2 choices here will be enough in this race.
Race 7 – 6,5,3
Face It is back at Aqueduct where she is 2-2 lifetime both at this 1 mile distance. She gets the outside post today which I am a fan of as well as she will be outside of the favorite Crimson Frost. Mclaughlin and Gutierrez as a team are 33% this meet and Kiaran is 29% with starters in Allowance company.
Crimson Frost on speed figs alone is the deserving favorite, but I am not a fan of her last 2 efforts, so I am taking a small stand against her today. She loves this 1 mile distance and she loves this track. A must use horse on all of your tickets in my opinion.
DJ’s Favorite is stretching back out today and while I don’t think 1 mile is her preferred distance, I would not be shocked if she got up for the Tri or even exacta. Would need the pace to fall a part in my opinion to win here, but for underneath she is a horse who should provide value.
Race 8 -7,6,4
Ouro Verde is 14 for 18 lifetime finishing in the top 3 and I think today is her day to make it back in the winners circle. She has only missed the money 1 time at Aqueduct and has only missed the money twice at this distance. This is also a very soft field and if she can’t get it done here I don’t think she ever will again.
Magari will need to improve the beat this field today, but with a favorite who is camera shy she is worth a play if you are not singling the favorite. She has tactical speed which is dangerous at Aqueduct and she gets a jockey upgrade to Junior which should not go unnoticed.
Missbigtimes is coming off a win last time out and Jeremiah Englehart is 27% with horse coming off a win last time out. She is another one who on paper needs to improve to beat this field, but another one who should be considered if you are not singling Ouro Verde here.