Last Friday we didn’t get to see any action because of the high winds but we’re back at it this week with 9 races and a first post of 1:00 P.M. Best of luck and be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Longshot play(s) of the day: Race 3 #6, Race 8 #3
Best Bet(s): Race 6 #5
Through 22 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 225-59-40-51 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Aqueduct meet totals: 76-23-8-20, $1.91 ROI for every $2 bet ($152 wagered = $144.90 returned)
Race 1 MSW 60k state bred 3yo fillies, 1 ⅛ miles
Multi Race- A: 5 B: 2,3
Top pick- #5 Micromillion
- What a bad maiden special race to start the card. The most likely winner would be the 4-5 ML favorite, seems like she will handle the distance just fine and has the speed to be on the lead in a paceless race.
Second choice- #2 Wear My Ring
- In a short 5 horse field won’t offer much of an alternative to the favorite but it’s another Pletcher runner that can improve after her debut.
Underneath- #3 I’m Fine
Race 2 CLM 16k 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 4,6 B: 5,7
Top pick- #6 Candy Promises
- There’s not much value here at 4-5 ML, but Candy Promises looks tough to beat in this spot. First off the claim for Rob Atras who is 25% with that move and the slight drop in class will help after a decent effort against 25k claimers. Atras teams up with Manny Franco who are hitting at a 38% rate when they team up this meet.
Second choice- #4 Too Fast to Pass
- Beaten favorite last time makes a slight jump in class first off the claim and has enough speed to be competitive throughout.
Underneath- #5 Runabout, #7 Curlin Road
Race 3 MSW 60k state bred 3yo, 1 ⅛ miles
Multi Race- A: 6,7 B: 2
Top pick- #6 Superego
- Don’t be fooled on how he looks on paper, his debut you can chalk up to a learning experience and second out got a poor trip and was out of contention pretty early. It’s nice to see the connections not dropping him, he’s been working well ever since an 8-1 is a generous price. Carmouche stays aboard.
Second choice- #7 Kilmarknock
- Will stretch out for a trainer who does well making that move (even if it is a small sample size- 6 for 15 when adding distance). Has the speed to be involved and although it is a step up in class this is not the strongest maiden special field.
Underneath- #2 Zipalong
Race 4 ALW 70k n1x fillies and mares 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 1,3 B: 2,5
Top pick- #3 Gracetown
- 5-2 second choice who is well placed by Linda Rice, her last race in the slop wasn’t all that great but now gets another chance at the same level. Lezcano stays on.
Second choice- #1 Figure It Out
- 4-5 ML favorite which is too short a price for me here but she certainly has speed and gets a jock upgrade to Manny Franco.
Underneath- #2 Black Kettle, #5 Private Beach
Race 5 MCL 25k 3yo fillies, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 2,5 B: 3,4
Top pick- #5 Quantum Computing
- Drops way down from 75k maiden claimers and trainer Danny Gargan is 25% with 61-180 day layoffs plus he’s been hot as of late. When teaming up with Manny Franco last year they hit at a 45% rate.
Second choice- #2 Kemba
- Looking past her last 2 races she has enough to be in contention in this spot today. Thinking 6 furlongs is a nice distance for her.
Underneath- #3 Helmers Run, #4 All About Reyana
Race 6 CLM 10k fillies and mares 4up, 6.5 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 5,6 B: 2,4
Top pick- #5 Stay Fond
- First off the claim for Jeffrey Englehart who is looking first win this meet and has a good chance of doing so today. Steps up a bit to 10k claimers after beating 8k, cuts back to 6.5 furlongs and loves the Aqueduct surface (5 for 12, 9/12 ITM).
Second choice- #6 Keep Your Distance
- Goes out for Gary Gullo and Eric Cancel, last race proved too much against 25k claimers and now drops back to 10k claimers which she beat 2 back.
Underneath- #2 Zecha, #4 Malarkey, #9 Athwaaq
Race 7 AOC 40k n2x state bred fillies and mares 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 1,7 B: 3,6
Top pick- #7 Am Impazible
- She’s a lightly raced mare has been improving with every start. I’m thinking Eric Cancel will give her a nice ride as she moves right on up the class ladder. Trainer Kelly Breen is 28% with last out winners and 36% this meet when teaming up with Cancel.
Second choice- #1 Lucky Move
- Must be respected given the class she has been running against and Carmouche stays on today. Well spotted for an under the radar trainer.
Underneath- #3 Cartwheel, #6 Elegant Zip
Race 8 AOC 40k n2x state bred
Multi Race- A: 3,8 B: 6,7
Top pick- #3 Kosciuszko
- Bit of a price here at 8-1 but has fired off the layoff and I think the pace will set up nice for him today. Can find the winners circle here with his best effort.
Second choice- #8 Leaky Cup
- Has speed and finds himself well spotted off a long layoff. First time gelding will be setting the pace most of the way around.
Underneath- #1 Vicar’s Legend, #6 Daddy Knows, #7 Castle Casanova
Race 9 MCL 25k 3yo, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 2,8 B: 1
Top pick- #2 Tipazo
- Boasts some pretty good beyers coming into the race and I think he’ll handle the stretch out to a mile. Has the speed to be on the lead throughout.
Second choice- #8 Uncle Ned
- Will be up on the pace and finds a nice spot after a very ambitious move to maiden special company after the claim.
Underneath- #1 Little Mazzy