Friday’s Aqueduct card features 9 races, including the grade 3 Distaff Handicap for Fillies and Mares four years old and up going 7 furlongs on the main track. There are 2 turf races (6 and 9) listed for the first time this year at Aqueduct, but the forecast is calling for rain so I wouldn’t expect for them to stay on the grass.
Race 1: 3-6-2-5
#3 Bye Bye Man is making a big jail move first after the claim for trainer Linda Rice, his only 2 races were both in the slop with a 14 point beyer improvement, could see another big performance. #6 Major Flirt stepping up here after breaking his maiden last month, my guess here is a high percentage trainer like Pletcher wouldn’t have put him here if he didn’t expect him to run well, 21% when stretching out. #2 Direct Order won last time out at this level in the slop, opens the ML favorite but will try to beat him here
Race 2: 4-3
#4 Cadeau de Paix ran second and put up a career best beyer after dropping in distance, may be able to match par today. #3 Daleelaty may be the best FTS in the group, solid works and good Jockey/Trainer combo.
Race 3: 6-1-2
A noticeable trend I’ve seen in the slop is that the track tends to favor outside runners. Speed may be coming from the 2 inside posts but I like the #6 Nth Degree to sit off the pace and be able to win 3rd off the layoff. #1 Malarkey is making a jail move first off the claim and #2 Bowl of Kisses seems to be the classiest in the field, should finish in the money.
Race 4: Pass
Race 5: 2-6-1
#2 Miss Hot Stones is an early speed/presser type of runner and I like her to run a big race 2nd off the layoff, has potential to run a 90+ beyer. After putting up a 98 beyer in the mud 2 back #6 Spring Drama was beaten by a head at this level, will open up the 9/5 ML but will try to beat her here. #1 She’s Trouble is 3 for 5 in the money lifetime, will enjoy a bit of class relief after running in 2 straight stakes races.
Race 6: Off 11-1A-3 Turf 4
#11 Party on Prospect is an MTO, you can excuse his last trip because he hit the gate and 2 back ran a 97 beyer in the mud, could prove the best in a field loaded with early speed. #1A Fear No One is a presser type horse, trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a 20% strike rate with last time out maiden winners, should sit nicely off the pace with Manny Franco in the irons.
Race 7: Pass
Race 8: Distaff Handicap G3- 4-6-5
1- Split Time: 2nd off the layoff dropping in distance, will have to post a career best beyer to match par.
2- Holiday Disguise: Coming off a last race win, bit of a layoff but did win the Distaff last year, must respect her.
3- RosyJersey: 1st off the layoff, don’t see her as a legit contender. Toss.
4- Startwithsilver: 3rd off the layoff, could put up a huge performance, stakes winner last time out at Aqueduct, probably the best Linda Rice horse in the field (she has the 1 and 2 as well).
5- Come Dancing: Early speed horse, layoff but has sharp recent works, should finish ITM.
6- Yorkiepoo Princess: best career beyer came on an off track race, could replicate that number in this spot.
7- Kathryn the Wise:May be overbet with the connections, my question with her is if she won her last race by 10 lengths why has she not raced in 3 months? Play against.
8- Pacific Gale: Has never really been a legit contender at the stakes level. Toss.
9- Dawn the Destroyer: Winner of a stakes race at Aqueduct, but needs to show improvement off the layoff. Toss.
Race 9: Off 10-13-9 Turf 6
#10 Recess tired in the stretch in his first race going a mile on turf, gonna take a gamble here that this second time starter improves on a potential wet track.