This article is the first installment in a new series on the Daily Gallop: “A Look Inside”, in which we discuss handicapping angles using real-life examples. If you have an angle you’d like to share, e-mail us at thedailygallop@gmail.com.
Nothing grinds the gears of bettors more than having to handicap seemingly cheap races. One look at a maiden claiming or non-winners of two lifetime claiming race, and most horseplayers turn the page to find a different race.
For those who may not know, a claiming race refers to a race in which anyone in the field can be bought for a pre-determined price. A $5,000 claiming race, for instance, means anyone with an owner’s license and $5,000 to spare can purchase any entrant in the race. In racing parlance, a “maiden” refers to a horse who has never won before, as such a maiden claiming race refers to a race where all the horses have never won a race and are for sale.
Generally speaking, maiden claiming races and non-winners of two claiming races are considered the lowest class of racing. The horses are thought of as hopelessly slow and unpredictable, and not very interesting to watch or wager on. Yet, there is a way to easily find contenders in these cheap races: simply, by finding horses who aren’t proven losers.
My favorite angle for these types of races is looking at a horse’s running line and seeing who among them has never lost at this level before. If a horse has already lost a $10,000 maiden claiming race, for example, I know that the horse couldn’t win at this level once, and I’d be surprised if they improved enough to win here. On the other hand, if a horse has been racing in $25,000 maiden claiming races, and now drops in for $10,000, I’d be more inclined to consider him as a contender. I don’t know for sure if he can win a $10,000 maiden claiming race, but I know most of his rivals can’t.
Some illustrative real-life examples came in the first two races of the day at Laurel Park on October 4, 2018. The first race of the day was a rock-bottom $10,000 maiden claiming race, while the second race was a $5,000 non-winners of two races claiming race. At first glance, deciphering these cheap horses looks difficult, but by using class, the contenders can be weeded from the pretenders quickly.
In the first race, there were eight horses. Out of those eight, four of them had already lost at least two $10,000 maiden claiming races at Laurel. They could be tossed to the side. Two others had not previously lost at the level, but they looked so hopelessly slow, they too could be easily eliminated.
That left bettors with, after just a few seconds, two horses to choose from. The 3, Wiggins, had three races in his career, and had run in a $25,000 maiden claiming race each time. He had finished second one time, and fifth two other times. This would be his first race since January 12, which wasn’t a great thing, but he nevertheless appeared to be one of the classiest members of the field.
Sunny Hansen had lost one time in a $10,000 maiden claiming race, at Penn National. He, too, had raced three times, and had come in the top three twice. He had never lost at this level in Maryland, making him another intriguing contender. Of course, neither horse was perfect, but in a field where everyone else was either really slow or a proven loser at the level, both Wiggins and Sunny Hansen looked like very likely winners.
The second race also had a field of eight, and most of the field consisted of established bums. Six of them had raced more than ten times, and all of them had just one victory apiece. Every one of the six had lost at least one non-winners of two claiming race. The two who were more lightly raced towered over the rest.
Valadier had recently won his first race, in a $10,000 maiden claiming race. He had run just five times, and had never lost at this level before. Disco Express had six races to his name, and had already lost a $5,000 n/w2L claiming race. However, it was his first time at the level, and it was on the funky, small Timonium track, in which horses who don’t have early speed have almost no chance. Moving on to Laurel’s expansive 1 1/8-mile track, Disco Express figured to have a better chance. These two were not proven losers, unlike the rest of the field, and looked like standouts.
The first two races played almost exactly as class handicappers might have drawn them up. In race 1, Wiggins didn’t fire, but Sunny Hansen took the early lead and never relinquished it, winning by 3 3/4 lengths and paying off at a generous 2.30/1: meaning that for every dollar you bet on him to win, you got back $2.30.
In the second race, Valadier went off as the 1.50/1 favorite, and drew off to an easy victory. Disco Express finished second, meaning that the exacta with the two standouts paid a spectacular $11.70 for every $1 wagered. A double wager combining Sunny Hansen and Valadier paid $9.90 for every $1 invested.
Are these Earth-shattering payoffs? No. But in the context of the races, they look pretty good. If you figured in race 2, for example, that 75% of the field had no chance, getting a 150% return on the winner isn’t so bad. Of course, finding a string of these kinds of winners can result in massive payoffs. Consider the results of the next three races on the program, which, along with the first two, made up Laurel’s pick 5 wager:
- In race 3, a “straight” maiden race (that is, a race for horses which have never won before who are not eligible to be claimed), Soar From Shadows had lost a few maiden races in a row. However, all those defeats were in New York, against much better company than this race. She had never lost a maiden race at Laurel, and as such fit in based on class. She won at 3.40/1.
- In race 4, a non-winners of three races claiming race, Zarski was coming off a win against non-winners of two claiming horses. He had never lost at this level before, something that could not be said for anyone else in the field. He won at 1.20/1.
- In race 5, a $16,000 non-winners of two races claiming race on the grass, Lion Lord was one of three horses in the field of twelve who had not lost at the level and had made fewer than ten starts. Unlike the other two, he had shown ability on grass and had recent racing experience. He won at 3.70/1.
Those five winners made up the winning combination in the pick 5, which paid $317.75 for every 50 cents invested. All you had to do to win it was take out the proven losers in each field.
The moral of the story? Don’t shy away from analyzing cheap races. If you can find horses who haven’t proven they can’t win at the condition, take a shot with them. It can pay off.