There’s an old saying among horseplayers that holds true: pace makes the race. Pace handicapping refers to the art of figuring out how a race will be run. It seeks to answer two things: how the race will unfold, and who will benefit.
To get to the answers, it helps to construct a pace scenario for each race. By doing so, a horseplayer can paint a vivid picture of how the race will set up. Understanding this is critical to the handicapping process. If one horse in the field has early speed, and no one else does, that horse might get very loose on the lead, and not have to deal with any pace pressure. Conversely, if half the field figures to try for the lead, that will set up for a closer, as the front-runners will get tired and give way.
Many past performance formats offer pace figures, which work in the same way as speed figures: the higher the figure, the faster the horse is expected to go. Analyzing these is invaluable for creating the pace scenario.
On brisnet PPs, we’ll find three types of pace figures: early pace, middle pace, and late pace. They tell you how fast a horse will go at certain parts of the race. This can be critical: if a horse has good middle pace figures, for example, it means they’ll be able to make a strong move as they turn for home, and wear down potentially tired front-runners.
Generally speaking, it’s better to have good early and middle pace figures than good late ones. If a horse doesn’t have any early speed, even if they fly home, they might be too far behind to catch the leaders. Conversely, if a horse has lots of early speed, but terrible late pace figures, that’s a sign they get tired quickly, and won’t have enough punch to hang on late.
For a real-life example, let’s take a look at race 1 at Thistledown from June 11, 2019, a fairly competitive field of seven claimers going six furlongs.To try and paint a picture of the pace scenario, we’ll look at the average pace figures of all the horses. Here’s the average early pace figures:
6, License to Bling: 89
5, Awesome at Last: 89
1, Johanna’s Delight: 86
4, Proper Touch: 86
7, Jocandy: 84
3, A Nice Rendition: 83
2, Lagoon of Diamonds: 73
And the average middle pace figures:
5, Awesome at Last: 91 (-2)
6, License to Bling: 89 (0)
1, Johanna’s Delight: 88 (+2)
4, Proper Touch: 87 (+1)
3, A Nice Rendition: 82 (-1)
7, Jocandy: 82 (-2)
2, Lagoon of Diamonds: 68 (-5)
And the average late pace figures:
2, Lagoon of Diamonds: 84 (+16)
7, Jocandy: 83 (+1)
4, Proper Touch: 82 (-5)
1, Johanna’s Delight: 80 (-8)
6, License to Bling: 78 (-11)
3, A Nice Rendition: 66 (-16)
5, Awesome at Last: 63 (-28)
The numbers in parentheses indicate the change in middle and pace figures. For example, Johanna’s Delight tends to accelerate by about two points during the middle part of the race, but decelerates by eight points in the late stages. Knowing this can help you understand who will be closing, who will flatten out, and who will show speed and fade.
Now, at a glance, we have a pretty good idea of how this race is going to play out. License to Bling and Awesome at Last will, in all likelihood, go right for the lead, with Johanna’s Delight and Proper Touch just off of them. Jocandy and A Nice Rendition will both sit mid-pack, while Lagoon of Diamonds will be coming from far behind.
Right away, we can eliminate a few horses. Lagoon of Diamonds does have the best late pace figures, but he is so slow early, he’ll almost certainly leave himself with too much to do. Awesome at Last has early speed, but tends to stop badly in the stretch. Having pace pressure on him early won’t help his cause. A Nice Rendition has neither early nor late speed.
So, now we’ve determined it’s a four-horse race. Jocandy, unlike the other contenders, accelerates in the last part of the race. Two races ago, against similar horses, he made up 7 1/2 lengths in the stretch to miss by half a length. If the early speed horses duel themselves to exhaustion, Jocandy will be rallying late to pick up the pieces. What’s more, he’s got enough early speed that he should at least be within striking distance of the leaders. That late speed of his will be beneficial.
License to Bling has the advantage of early speed. Unlike Awesome at Last, he doesn’t badly fold in the lane, as he’s been within five lengths of the leader at the end in his last two starts. He looks like a good candidate to round out exactas and trifectas, but with some quality closers in the field, betting him to win is a bit shaky, unless you get good win value on him.
Johanna’s Delight is another one who rates and pounces. He tends to flatten out in the stretch, as indicated by his lukewarm late pace figures. Further muddying the waters with him is the strong wagering action that he received. He was the tentative 5/2 morning line favorite, but was the solid 6/5 choice as they approached the starting gate. Taking a price like that on a horse without a solid pace advantage is dicey.
Proper Touch has a similar profile as Johanna’s Delight. He had a lackluster start last out, but it was his first race off a long layoff, and he made good moves last year. He’s got a good shot.
This race didn’t quite play out how it forecasted on paper, but everyone still ran as they were expected to late. Surprisingly, Jocandy was sent right to the lead, while License to Bling, who began a bit awkwardly, rated on his outside. Around the turn, License to Bling began to fade, and Awesome at Last, true to his profile, made a sweeping move on the turn. However, the figures said that he would flatten out in the stretch, and the figures were right, as he sputtered as soon as they passed the quarter pole.
Meanwhile, Johanna’s Delight rated off Jocandy off the inside, and angled out and looked ready to roll by Jocandy. Jocandy bettors shouldn’t have been too nervous, though: Jocandy was expected to accelerate in the last quarter mile, while Johanna’s Delight was projected to fade. That proved accurate: Johanna’s Delight couldn’t get by, and Jocandy held on to win and pay $7.40. Awesome at Last held on for third, while Lagoon of Diamonds, who was a distant last early on, came in fourth.
Pace scenarios can be a very important part of handicapping. If you understand how a race will be run, and who will be contending late, it’ll go a long way towards finding more winners.