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I want to say these are opinions of things that I look for when looking at two-year-old races in the state of Kentucky. They won’t always work, and there will be exceptions to the some of the stuff I say because nothing is fool-proof. Also, these are the specific months of May, June, (Churchill Downs) skipping July and August (Ellis Park) looking at September (Kentucky Downs, Churchill) October (Keeneland) and lastly November (Churchill). Now it would be easy for me to sit here and say watch out for that Asmussen Santana combo that’s easy and this wouldn’t be much of a handicapping article… this is about the “less” used angles that can work.

The very first thing when I see a two-year-old race I look for names and tote board action looking at who’s running and who’s being bet means a lot. Obviously, Santana and Asmussen is going be bet, and Brad Cox is going to be bet. A good combo in Kentucky that keeps a decent price is the RR: Robby Albarado and Dale Romans. They will be bet, but sometimes you can get a good Robby and Romans horse at around 3-1 to 6-1.

An example of this came on June 15th, 2017. Free Drop Billy broke his maiden 5-1 with Robby on him. Robby is so important because he can make a two-year-old look more mature than the competition. Watch when the owner is Albaugh family for the RR angle.

Another good trainer with two-year-olds is Bret Calhoun, and my favorite angle with him is betting his Texas-bred two-year-olds in Kentucky, specifically his first one of the year. One example of that is Patrona Margarita, which came out last year at Churchill as Bret’s first two-year-old of the year and won at 6-1. I had her because of the aforementioned angle. Another example is True Saint, winner of the first race at Keeneland this Spring at 2-1. Watch out when he has a KY bred with Carl Moore; I always have to look up and see if they are getting action.

One of my best bet against trainers is a Kenny McPeek firster, because they are always over bet and never run as they should. Usually, they go off at 4-1 through about 10-1. That seems like the perfect bet to take, cause they can pay a reasonable price. However, it seems they never run like a good one and they seem like they are always a race away. The two exceptions to this rule are Ten City, and Restless Rider, but those were both two amazing horses that went on to win stakes races. Most of his two-year-olds won’t be like that. It just seems to me his horses always run decent make a middle move but still seem a race short. If you’re looking for two examples watch Curlin’s Grey and Thundershook’s race.

Believe it or not one of my best bet against in the state of Kentucky for a first time starters is Mark Casse. You might say that he’s one of the best two year old trainers on the continent of North America, why did I word it like that? In my opinion, it’s because Canada is where his top two-year-olds are, and I feel like they are over bet because of the name value. It’s hard to find a horse from him over 4-1, but I feel like his two-year-olds are either blinking favorite and run like it or are 5-2 through 5-1 and run ok. I’m not saying you shouldn’t use a horse if it is in between those odds, but what I am saying is when a horse is those odds look to see if its John Oxley as the owner. If Oxley owns, the horse might be worth a shot. Otherwise, steer clear.

So now that we know who to bet and who not to bet. Here’s some other some things I look for. One of my most important angles concerns horses that are bet and run bad, vs horses that run good but aren’t bet. I would much rather bet a horse that’s 2-1 2nd choice that gets beat by 15 lengths vs. a horse that was 25-1 swings up 6 wide and runs a massive 2nd because they are always overbet, and they never run that same race back. The exact opposite of those that are bet and don’t run well they either come back with a better performance, or they aren’t much of a horse and if I bet them at 2-1 why can’t I bet them when they are 4-1?

Key races are another important angle. If the 2-year-old has run look for good horses that ran in that race. If it was a prominent trainer and won by 5, I can bet that horse back if 4 horses have come out of that race to run well. An example Raging Bull earlier in the year at Keeneland. Yes, it was a 3-year-old race, but out of that race, four horses came back to win their next race. That’s a great example of key horses and key races coming back and running big races.

Another angle I use deals with workouts. I would much rather have a 2-year-old working out 47.60 to a 48.40 range 7 days apart, versus a horse that works 46 and change consistently 9 to 12 days apart.  I feel those works can take a lot out of those horses, and they won’t have their best stuff in the afternoon.

I wanted to end this article by saying thank you for The Daily Gallop for giving me this opportunity to share knowledge this is my first ever article, ever. Thank you for reading this article it means so much to me, I hope this helps someone out there betting one of these races. And guys stick around this website come back to read more I have a feeling this place is going to be something special for us horseplayers! Also, leave a comment down below love to