In 2019, marriage across the board is down, but those of you still looking to find a new love, you can do
so at the racetrack, just be prepared to be let down, or at least be prepared to be aware.
I’m going to briefly discuss two examples that a novice player may have come across during the President’s Day racing cards and found themselves in a no-win situation.
The first example came at Oaklawn Park on the undercard, Race 4, a Maiden Special Weight for 3yo fillies. Eventually going off at odds of 2.40/1, 6 WHAT A FOX was actually favored in double pools, and this was no surprise to anyone who watched her Jan 26th race. 15 years ago, there is almost no chance this horse goes off these sort of odds, but in the age of the internet and the 24-hour news cycle, very few, if any, playing the card missed the trouble encountered by What a Fox. She tried to split horses in deep stretch and was forced to steady when the hole suddenly closed, making her finish look much worse on paper than it actually was. As an improving filly in every start prior to that last one, it was no surprise to me that she took the bulk of the wagering dollars into the favorite like she was well meant, and she was.
If you did your homework, you couldn’t possibly like the favorite in that race, #7, and the #6 equally, but you had to know they would be similar in price. My guess though, is that people trust the ML more than they should, and didn’t necessarily think that both would go off in the 2-1 range. The only way to make money on the surely over bet What a Fox was to do it in multi-race wagers that didn’t start the race before or after, also called, blind pools. But if you waited all day (til race 4) before you gave it a thought, you already missed your opportunity to get some value on this horse.
In today’s age, trip handicappers not only have to find the bad trips and try to take advantage of them,
but they also have to be aware of what odds they will get, which can sometimes be difficult. This is why it’s important not to marry yourself to a horse in the handicapping, after all, it’s a wagering game.
The second example, and perhaps the more obvious example, comes to us from the opener at Mohawk Park. Let’s take a look.
Here’s my write up on the race, and mostly pay attention to #9 HEY LIVVY who I needed the week before at
10-1 for a nice score, and let’s just say didn’t get the greatest steer in the world.
RACE 1
2 SHE’S GOT PIZAZZ simply got a no try around the oval last week after missing racing since December 17th, she trotted the back half in 56:4 and should be put into play a bit early on today from the inside post, live at a big price. 3 PERFETTO was left too much to do last week but is in good form, and would be no surprise. 1 MONOPOLY failed to finish the job as the chalk on the class hike last week, draws well, inside speed 4 QUADRANGLE has been sharp for a while now but last time had to be the time at those odds 9 HEY LIVVY was 10-1 last week and wins with any sort of steer but after leaving for position refused to leave the cones and got backed up into by 33-1 longshot, and was left badly shuffled approaching 3 quarters, and he’ll be grossly overbet tonight
BOTTOM LINE these all return from last weeks win by 4 QUADRANGLE, the 9 HEY LIVVY is the one you want at anything close to the ML, but any shorter you should play against, the other 3 favorites all have similar chances, and 2 can light up the exotics if he sneaks into them
BET 9 HEY LIVVY AT 5-1 OR MORE
Now, there is a lot going on here, so let me walk you through it, I was prepared.
Obviously, the 9 had a serious amount of trouble the week before, almost assuring that he was going to be
grossly overbet off that last, hence the need for the comment noting such.
Keep in mind, the others that are contenders, aren’t big prices on the ML and have better posts, so I’m
still going to play the race if I can get the right odds on 9 HEY LIVVY, which is why I suggest at 5-1 that you should still play her. I also knew, that there was very little if any chance that we would get those sort of odds, but you have to be prepared,
which is why I tell people that you should bet if you get the odds I suggested, and
PLAY AGAINST
when shorter.
Obviously, sharps that follow the track such as Garnet Barnsdale (@gocashking) were quick to point out something
I was already aware of, which was that Hey Livvy wouldn’t be 5-1, but you have to be prepared that she will be, or she won’t be, that’s all. Here is the screenshot that shows the conversation, and no this isn’t to pick on Mike Pribozie (@NahuMikeeP),
who I’m guessing just doesn’t follow Mobine like Garnet and myself? (just means were lifelong degens), but more to show that you aren’t always going to be right about what odds you think a horse will be, come post time, bc you can’t know all the factors all
the time, which is why you need to be prepared to change on the fly, and play against a horse that you wanted to pick on top.
Hey Livvy went off at 6-5, never got involved from the outside post, and missed the ticket entirely, keying
a nice $200 superfecta payout for .20c, if you weren’t married to your handicapping.
Now some of you are probably reading this thinking, wait, I’m going to play against my strongest opinion? Yes, you should, at the very least not marry your handicapping, IMO, you should almost never know who you are going to bet until you actually bet as once again, it’s a wagering game.
Feel free to comment on Twitter, it’s a great conversation to have, and something we can all improve upon. Follow @legendbets and maybe share an example of a time this happened to you and you were prepared….or married, yuck! Sorry to all the husbands and wives on Twitterverse, you had your day though!