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W% 33%
ROI -26%

Race 1
3-1-5

#3 Raise Em Up: In an exciting opener I’m going against the two favs to try and get a price home. He has only sprinted once, and it was an extended sprint. He has lost the last three against weaker, but the previous two were improved efforts. The barn is a slow 1-15 to start the meet, but I feel the price will be there if we can get a little more improvement this is one that can hit the board at a big price.

#1 Supernumerary: His lone win came at 1-9, and since coming back off a layoff in September he hasn’t looked like the same horse three races only once ITM on an off track. Steve Asmussen when cutting the claiming tag in half and using Santana in the saddle and very low 0-2 but this will probably be a horse around the 2-1 range. PASS.

#5 Totality: the M/L favorite pretty easy analysis if she runs back to any back race she wins for fun this is why I don’t think she will. Since the debut, she is 0-4 off layoffs this is a HUGE class drop and although the trainer does well off 180+ breaks he doesn’t really improve all that much when you run it through formulator he is an even 14% which is what he is in a base formulator sample size for every horse ran in the last 5 years. 8% jock also doesn’t tell me Positive intent.

Race 2
PASS

Race 3
7-1-6

#7 Roses n’ Rubies: Big class drop for Trainer Joe Sharp after only one race in the barn although he thought enough of the horse to put it into a stake race. While the drop is scary, this gelding won his maiden in the MSW ranks, and he is 2-2 on fast dirt to hit the board. I’m expecting a good race today.

#1 Major Ridge: More of a trainer play for me Ralph Nicks is a good 2 yr old trainer. I love the improvement on the switch from tracks it also may have been the switch to statebreds, either way, both still fit today at FG and in against statebreds.

#6 No More For U: New and upcoming Barn the horse has three improving races since his last layoff. Usually facing winners first time, not a winning proposition but he hit the board two back against our second choice who won that race and then another big Beyer jump if he can jump again he will be tough in this race.

Race 4
PASS
Race 5
1-2-6

#1 Mardi Gras mask: He likes to finish second not the best thing to see but what I love is he finished off the board in last but ran a better than Beyer par number. The bug Rider Declan Cannon stays on which to me is a positive and you might get a decent price on this one.

#2 Star Yankee: First time running for a tag and he gets the top rider James Graham aboard today that tells the trainer is aiming for a win today.

#6 Exchange Gold: If he runs back to the maiden win he wins for fun. Maybe the barn change helped but I’m going to take it as a negative the horse runs back in a claiming race. Trainer Micheal Stidham has been doing well this meet and has a good win back percentage 22%

Race 6
PASS
Race 7
10-9-11

#10 Dora Maar: This Daughter of Paynter wasn’t bet in her debut going off at 10-1, but she did run a nice credible 52 Beyer against MSW company. She was way back early on and passed some horses to split the field. Most Horses improve 10 points give or take a few when they run again so that would give her a 63 the Beyer Par is 62 so if we assume the horse will improve like most she is the most likely winner. How do we know she will likely improve over regressing well Trainer Tom Proctor is a reliable 26% with 2nd times starters going MSW-MC.

#9 Mataphan: This filly has improved in every start so far starting at a 38 Beyer and bringing it up to a 57 in her 4th start. She has finally found a good level as in her last she was dropping from 50-30K. One horse has since run out of that MC race it ran third and was also dropped to a 15K race. This one should have the jump on the top pick as she seems to be more of a stalker than anything else. She needs only to improve a little to have a say at the wire.

#11 Lady Blue: This one is also dropping in class for a weak 2-year-old barn but what shows me positive intent is leading rider James Graham is riding and in the last two years in 8 starts they have over a 7$ ROI when he rides for this barn.

Race 8
7-6

#7 Special For You: 2 races on dirt and the nice improvement from the debut tell me this horse can at least run on dirt. Trainer Eddie Kenneally does well with his two-year-olds, and this one’s pedigree didn’t scream turf to me.

#6 Gizmo: Just another logical firster with good works and a hot trainer at the meet.

Race 9
9-3

#9 Curzon Street: In these hybrid races with NWL and horses who haven’t won x amount of races over a certain amount of time look for horses who have been on layoffs over the specific time in the condition these types havent lost within this condition so for me it gives them a class edge. Right so on to our top pick. He comes off a layoff from May he is 6-9 at FG and also has ten wins total over half the wins coming at one track I’m expecting a significant move forward earlier in the year in 4 starts three were in the ’70s.

#3 One Kind of Crazy: 1-3 on fast dirt he does have a big 81 routing so he can pop with a big number at an excellent price. improving races third off the layoff is it possible this was the spot all along.

YTD 2 MEETS
WAGERED 248
TOP PICK % 28-126=22%
W/L -(51.70) R.O.I. -(20.85%)

SARATOGA 2018 SUMMER MEET RESULTS
TOP PICKS WAGERED BASED ON 2$ WIN BETS
WAGERED 106
TOP PICK %= 10-55 18%
W/L=(-39.10) R.O.I. -37

BELMONT 2018 SPRING MEET RESULTS
TOP PICKS WAGERED BASED ON 2$ WIN BETS
WAGERED 142
TOP PICK %=18-71=25%
W/L=-(12.60) R.O.I -9%