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2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index

Week 6

Joseph Wulffe

Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy

[Welcome to the sixth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8^th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. Just to rehash a topic that was brought up in the first edition of this article for the new year, one piece of determining criteria has been modified slightly. This one item in the determining criteria that I am going to provide some clarification revolves around a potential cut-off date for horses to be eligible to make either the BUY or SELL Lists. On February 17^th, if a horse has not run in a prep race since the beginning of 2020, then that runner is not eligible to be included in either list. This way, I am not beholden to including runners that may have put forth brilliant two year old campaigns for consideration but have yet to race as three year olds. This will certainly cause some consternation amongst readers (especially fans of Dennis’ Moment and Eight Rings) but with this stipulation in effect, then the ranks of the BUY and SELL Lists will be filled with horses that have demonstrated that they actually deserve mentioning and the included runners are not simply being used as placeholders for a spot in the mere hope that they will be just as good as a three year old as they were at the age of two. By my count there are eight 2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races in the United States that will be contested between the now, January 20^th, and February 17^th, including one race that will be run on February 17^th itself. Thus there is ample opportunity for any of these prospective Derby contenders to get a prep race underneath them before this deadline and therefore put forth their overall resume for consideration. That being said, if a horse were to run in a prep race after February 17^th and give an impressive performance, then that horse certainly would be eligible for consideration in the editions for the weeks following the deadline.

Just one prep race has been run since the last edition of the Futures Index came out and that was the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes run at eight and a half furlongs down at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans on January 18^th. The Mark Casse trained colt, Enforceable (a full brother to both Mohaymen and Kingly) and owned by John C. Oxley returned to his winning ways in that affair through a brilliant ride by jockey Julien Leparoux. After previously finishing 3^rd in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October and then 4^th in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs at the end of November, Enforceable finally broke through and picked up his first stakes victory at the mile and a sixteenth distance along with a valuable 10 Kentucky Derby Points. Enforceable is not a colt gifted with brilliant early speed, rather he is a drop back closer with a solid grinding ability and a powerful late closing kick that makes him a major threat in the latter stages of races provided the pace sets up well for that running style. Well the pace of the Lecomte certainly worked in Enforceable’s favor on Saturday and allowed this son of Tapit with Leparoux aboard to work out a quality trip early on, get the jump on several rivals turning for home and then power down the stretch en route to a length and a half victory over the highly touted Steve Asmussen prospect Silver State, who received a brutal trip and ride from jockey Ricardo Santana Jr in the latter stages of the race. The 106 TimeForm speed rating that Enforceable earned for his efforts was commendable as it marks another forward progression for this talented colt (in fact his speed ratings have improved in each and every start on the dirt thus far). However, my overall impression of the final outcome of the Lecomte and more importantly Enforceable’s performance is not nearly as optimistic. Enforceable’s running style does not often translate to success in the Kentucky Derby as it is quite rare for drop back, one run closers to make a major impression on the field for the mile and a quarter distance and grind out a win over those rivals that race closer to the pace throughout the entirety of the race. That being said, closers like Enforceable have been known to hit the board quite often and fill out the ranks of the trifectas and superfectas which means that if Enforceable continues to encounter favorable pace scenarios and keep on accruing valuable Derby points, then he has a very good chance to make it into the gates on the first Saturday in May and could very well hit the board too. 

Now in the next two weeks there are four rather important Derby prep races that will be run across the country that will likely have a major impact on both the BUY and SELL Lists for this feature. This Friday, January 24^th, at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas is the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed) run at a mile on the main track. Entered into that field are Silver Prospector, Shoplifted, and Lynn’s Map (after he scratched out of the Lecomte Stakes) along with six other three year olds of varying degrees of talent. Shoplifted may have the advantage in this field as I believe that he is at his best racing at a mile, whereas Silver Prospector probably would prefer to be racing at a longer distance (actually I am somewhat confused as to why Steve Asmussen is running one of his top colts at such a short distance instead of continuing to stretch him out). The winner of this affair will pick up another 10 Kentucky Derby Points which would position them near the top of the current leaderboard and could make them a solid contender going forward in the prep races being held at Oaklawn Park throughout the winter and into the spring. Then on February 1^st, the prep races really start to heat up. Aqueduct Racetrack will play host to the nine furlong Grade 3 Withers Stakes and amongst the possible entries for that race is Jeremiah O’Dwyer’s Shotski, winner of the Grade 3 Remsen Stakes over the same course and distance back at the beginning of December. Additionally, Barclay Tagg’s Tiz the Law will likely be making his three year old debut in the eight and a half furlong Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes down at Gulfstream Park that day. Finally, Santa Anita’s feature for three year olds is the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes also run at eight and a half furlongs and amongst the projected possible starters are both Bob Baffert’s Thousand Words and Peter Eurton’s Storm the Court (the 2019 BC Juvenile Champion) as both look to make their 2020 debuts. All in all it appears that these next two weeks will be filled with some exciting prep races that are certainly worth watching as there could be massive shakeups amongst the standings on both these lists. With that being said, let’s reveal both the BUY and SELL Lists for Week 6 of the 2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index.]

BUY

* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)

1. (Last Week: 1) Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 4-2-0-0; 1^st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

2. (Last Week: 2) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 6-2-0-2; 1^st in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

3. (Last Week: 3) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 3-2-0-1; 1^st in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and 3^rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)

4. (Last Week: 4) Shotski (Blame-Bluegrass Cat; Jeremiah O’Dwyer; Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, Pantofel Stable and Mike Karty; 4-2-0-0; 1^st in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points).

5. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Enforceable (Tapit-Dixie Union; Mark Casse; John C. Oxley; 7-2-1-2; 3^rd in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 4^th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and 1^st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); 13 Kentucky Derby Points).

ON THE VERGE:

Ajaaweed (Curlin-Daaher; Kiaran McLaughlin; Shadwell Stable; 4-1-1-0; 4^th in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 2^nd in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 5 Kentucky Derby Points)

Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D Fielding, and Golconda Stables; 2-2-0-0, 1^st in the Sham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile-Pomeroy; Bob Baffert; Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC; 2-2-0-0; 1^st in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

SELL

* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)

1. (Last Week: 2) Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 5-1-2-0; 2^nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2^nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 4^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and 5^th in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)

2. (Last Week: 1) Anneau d’Or (Medaglia d’Oro-Tapit; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 3-1-2-0; 2^nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and 2^nd in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)

3. (Last Week: 3) Bourbon Bay (Bayern-Street Sense; Mark Hennig; Bourbon Lane Stable, Seidman Stables LLC, and Lake Lonely Racing; 3-1-2-0; 2^nd in the Jerome Stakes (Listed); 3 Kentucky Derby Points)

4. (Last Week: 4) Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 5-2-1-0; 2^nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5^th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and 1^st in Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

5. (Last Week: 5) Storm the Court (Court Vision-Tejano Run; Peter Eurton; Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock; 4-2-0-1; DNF in the Del Mar Futurity* (G1), 3^rd in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 1^st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)