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2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index

Week 5 (Part 1)

Joseph Wulffe

Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy

[Welcome to the fifth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index and the first article of the new year, which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8^th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. There is one item in the determining criteria that I am going to provide some clarification on though and it revolves around a potential cut-off date for horses to be eligible to make either the BUY or SELL Lists. On February 17^th, if a horse has not run in a prep race since the beginning of 2020, then that runner is not eligible to be included in either list. This way, I am not beholden to including runners that may have put forth brilliant two year old campaigns for consideration but have yet to race as three year olds. This will certainly cause some consternation amongst readers (especially fans of Dennis’ Moment and Eight Rings) but with this stipulation in effect, then the ranks of the BUY and SELL Lists will be filled with horses that have demonstrated that they actually deserve mentioning and the included runners are not simply being used as placeholders for a spot in the mere hope that they will be just as good as a three year old as they were at the age of two. By my count there are nine 2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races in the United States that will be contested between the now, January 6^th, and February 17^th, including one race that will be run on February 17^th itself. Thus there is ample opportunity for any of these prospective Derby contenders to get a prep race underneath them before this deadline and therefore put forth their overall resume for consideration. That being said, if a horse were to run in a prep race after February 17^th and give an impressive performance, then that horse certainly would be eligible for consideration in the editions for the weeks following the deadline. 

Although it is only January 6^th, already two important Kentucky Derby prep races have been run: the Jerome Stakes (Listed) run at a mile on New Year’s Day at Aqueduct and won by Independence Hall and the Grade 3 Sham Stakes also run at a mile on January 4^th at Santa Anita and won by Authentic. Both of these horses will be featured on one of the lists (displayed below) and I will be discussing both of those races in-depth on my Board Hitters & Bourbon podcast this Friday evening. Speaking of which, the plan for this week’s Kentucky Derby Futures Index is to break the feature down into two parts. This specific edition, Part 1, will only deal with the presentation of both the BUY and SELL Lists. A second edition that will come out later in the week, Part 2, will go more in-depth on each of the runners and in some instances for new contenders I will be discussing their pedigree to offer some perspective as to their ability going forward when they start stretching out in distance to longer routes. For those runners for which the connections have made public their future race plans, I will be presenting that information as well in addition to pertinent recent workouts such that the readers might have a better understanding as to how these horses will contend in their upcoming preps. Finally, on Friday evening be sure to tune in to my Board Hitters & Bourbon podcast (which can be found for the time being on my personal Twitter page @Whtnbourbonguy) as I will be presenting my impressions of both of the two recent Derby preps, highlighting a few on the notable horses on both the BUY and SELL List and then discussing which three year olds, that have yet to race in 2020, that I’m most looking forward to seeing run in the near future. As always, viewer participation is highly encouraged and feedback is welcomed. With all this being said, let’s dive on in to revealing the first set of BUY and SELL Lists for the fifth edition of the 2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index!]

BUY

* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)

1. (Last Week: 1) Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 4-2-0-0; 1^st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

2. (Last Week: 2) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 6-2-0-2; 1^st in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

3. (Last Week: 3) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 3-2-0-1; 1^st in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and 3^rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)

4. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Shotski (Blame-Bluegrass Cat; Jeremiah O’Dwyer; Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, Pantofel Stable and Mike Karty; 4-2-0-0; 1^st in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points).

5. (Last Week: 5) Independence Hall (Constitution-Cape Town; Michael Trombetta; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, Kathleen and Robert Verratti; 3-3-0-0; 1^st in the Nashua Stakes* (G3) and 1^st in the Jerome Stakes (Listed); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

ON THE VERGE:

Ajaaweed (Curlin-Daaher; Kiaran McLaughlin; Shadwell Stable; 4-1-1-0; 4^th in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 2^nd in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 5 Kentucky Derby Points)

Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D Fielding, and Golconda Stables; 2-2-0-0, 1^st in the Sham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile-Pomeroy; Bob Baffert; Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC; 2-2-0-0; 1^st in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

SELL

* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)

1. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Anneau d’Or (Medaglia d’Oro-Tapit; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 3-1-2-0; 2^nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and 2^nd in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)

2. (Last Week: 2) Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 4-1-2-0; 2^nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2^nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3); 4^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)

3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Bourbon Bay (Bayern-Street Sense; Mark Hennig; Bourbon Lane Stable, Seidman Stables LLC, and Lake Lonely Racing; 3-1-2-0; 2^nd in the Jerome Stakes (Listed); 3 Kentucky Derby Points)

4. (Last Week: 1) Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 5-2-1-0; 2^nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5^th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and 1^st in Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)

5. (Last Week: 5) Storm the Court (Court Vision-Tejano Run; Peter Eurton; Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock; 4-2-0-1; DNF in the Del Mar Futurity* (G1), 3^rd in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 1^st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)