| Early Pick 5 | A | B | C | X |
| R1 | 2,4 | 3 | 1,5 | 6,7,8 |
| R2 | 3,7 | 1 | 6,9 | 2,4,5,8,10 |
| R3 | 2,3 | 4 | 5,6 | 1,7,8 |
| R4 | 4 | 3,5,9 | 8 | 1,2,6,7 |
| R5 | 5,6 | 4,7 | 1,2,8 | 3 |
Early Pick 5 Makeup
Last few weeks at Del Mar have been tough as the horse shortage has been ever apparent in average field size, but alas, we have a really good early pick 5 sequence here with full fields (as of now). This sequence features 3 Allowance Optional Claimers, A $20k Maiden Claiming, and a Maiden Special Weight. We have 4 sprints (2 dirt and 2 turf) and one turf route. Field size is 8x10x8x9x8.
Hard to take a stand here on any single, but will have one ticket taking a shot with singling #4 in R4 at 12-1. Leg 2 is the most confident I am with sticking with my A’s. Leg’s 1 and 3 can take a chance on A+B’s as big gap to C’s.
Ticket 1: 2,3,4/ 3,7 / 2,3,4 / 3,4,5,8,9/4,5,6,7 ($180)
Ticket 2: 2,3,4 /1,3,7 / 2,3,4 / 4 / 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 ($95)
Race 1: 5F Turf AOC $62k N2X F&M 3+
Projection: 4-2-3
Competitive field of 8 kicks off the card. As expected for a 5F Turf Dash, lots of early speed is signed on here. My top pick, #4 Love a Honeybadger, projects to be the speed of the speed in here but will be making her turf debut. Peter Miller is 22% and $2.47 ROI in making the move from dirt to turf and also 23% $2.54 in 2nd off the layoff situations. Last out, clearly did not prefer being on the inside of the duel and quickly faded in her return from a year layoff. Today is positioned outside any competing speed and should get an ideal trip on the front end. Miller is great with these Turf Sprints and is known for horses taking big figure jumps forward when moving to grass. The top Thorograph fig in this race belongs to #2 Kentan Road, and is another one with strong early speed. Has dueled on the inside successfully in the past, a situation the horse could find herself in today. If there ends up being a meltdown, #3 Flower Point could benefit as this horse has a strong late kick and found herself in a pace meltdown last out, a race she won (and beat #1 Stealthediamonds) despite an early stumble. Interesting that Prat jumps off for #5 though.
Race 2: 5.5F Dirt MDCLM $20k 3+
Projection: 7-3-1-9
#3 Norski’s figures tower over this field and due to this will likely land around even money. But, this is familiar territory for Norski haven been a ML favorite 2 of the last here races, but still has not broke through in 9 starts. The 5 other horses who have run 5+ races do not have figures anywhere needed what it would take to win today. That leaves #1 Darkhawk, #6 Creeds Revenge,#7 Fratelli, and #9 Imperator. Top pick of this bunch is #7 Fratelli, a first time starter who has been scoring “B” works grades including a bullet work on 11/9 from the gate. Munnings babies 16% with first timers, and works suggest this one could have some early speed, something this race appears short on. #9 Imperator gets a nice outside post for debut and is also coming in on strong works, his being at Golden Gate. The #1Darkhawk is an interesting price as this horse has been running at Los Al under the lights. Horse is half to a 3x SW Opportunistic who topped with a “7”.
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Race 3: 1M Turf AOC $62k N2X F&M 3+
Projection: 3-2-4–5
This race is loaded with early speed with what will be likely early contention between the 5,6,and 8. The addition of blinkers in combination with Blanc on board tells me the #3 Maxim Rate will also be more forwardly placed here early. This horse has competed at the graded stakes level for the past 6 races, including the G1 Del Mar Oaks won by Cambier Parc. Callaghan is 22% when adding blinkers and will look to have this one stalk close and pounce. The ML 8/5 favorite, # 2 Excellent Sunset will be tough as this one also appears likely to be just off the pace duel but has enough late kick to win. Has run twice over this Del Mar Turf this year finishing 3rd by a head and 2nd by a neck. Prat comes back after last strong effort. #4 Don’t Blame Judy has the best Timeform US late speed fig of 113. This horse has had troubled trips in two of the past 3, so could be primed for improvement here and will get plenty of speed in here to chase down late. #5 Harmless will need a major figure jump to compete but may only have one strategy to win, and that’s, try and be lone speed and hope Abel works his magic in settling the horse. We know this horse is fit with recent B and B+ works from @clockerandy. #6 Ms Peintour likely to be part of the speed duel, but has one from a stalking position in the past. Horse is fresh with 2.5 months off but with 5 well spaced works leading up to this effort and at her top fig could be competitive here today.
Race 4: 5.5F Dirt AOC $50k Fillies 2YO
Projection: 4-3-9-5
This one appears to also have the makings of an early contested lead and pressure upfront. #5,8, and #9 all possess good early speed, with Timeform US early speed figs of 111, 114, and 114. This could make for an interesting battle for position with the wider posts involved here. With that, I prefer taking a stab at value here with a horse that could win from off it. #4 White Velvet, half sister to Velvet Queen who won here on Friday in an allowance sprint, has the best late speed figs but will be facing winners for the first time following her maiden claiming victory from off the pace. Will get a 5-8 lb advantage on the 3 speeders upfront too. #3 Win Often won debut by 4.5 lengths after being involved in an early duel. In second career start could improve big on figure. Trainer/ jockey combo are 30% this year and trainer is lifetime 23% with 2YO’s. Vronsky babies also winning at 17% as 2YO’s. I cant take a firm stand against any of the early speed horizontally, as 5,8, and 9 will appear on most of my tickets with the two above.
Race 5: 5F Turf MSW $52k 3+
Projection: 6-5-4-7
Interesting group for this Maiden Special Weight event. A few of interesting bloodlines in here.
- #8 Montana Moon- Half to Eight Rings
- #4 Cape Point- Half to Selcourt
- #1 Tyrannical Rex- Half to Surrender Now
Top pick is #6 Exqueeze Me, who gets Prat on board for his West Coast debut following a 9 month layoff. Sharp string of works over the past 2 months, and this one should be out alone on the lead in this one, a good place to be for the 5F dash. Simon Callaghan is 28%/ $4.83 on horses making their first start with him this year. Dam had a top of “2” on dirt sprints. #5 Shandling ran a good second in debut after a bumpy start. No turf on the dam/sibs so surprised to not see this one on dirt yet but enters this race with the top beyer and 2nd best thorograph fig. Work grades in the AM have been strong, including a B+ work over the main last week.With clean start, could be primed for a big improvement here.
| Late Pick 5 | A | B | C | X |
| R5 | 5,6 | 4,7 | 1,2,8 | 3 |
| R6 | 6,8,10 | 9,12 | 2 | 1,3,4,5,7,11 |
| R7 | 1,7 | 8,9 | 5 | 2,3,4,6 |
| R8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1,4,6 |
| R9 | 3 | 4,10 | 8 | 1,2,5,6,7,9 |
Late Pick 5
Ticket #1: 4,5,6,7 / 6,8,9,10,12 / 1,7,8,9 / 5 / 3,4, 10= $120
Ticket #2: 1,2,4,5,6,7 / 6,8,10 / 1,7 / 3,5 / 3,4,8,10= $144