There’s only six entered today, and there will likely be one defection as Wendell Fong ran Thursday at Belmont (despite also being entered at Laurel on Friday). Since next week’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint is so wide open, I think that likely had a negative impact on the participation in this race this year. However, a few of these are likely looking to parlay this race with a start in the Cigar Mile in December, ala Maximum Security from 2019.
- Mihos: He’s always been a nice horse for Jimmy Jerkens and Centennial Farms, but while he has been competitive with optional claiming/allowance types, he has struggled when facing graded stakes competition. He would likely fare better if there was a pace battle on the front end, but that is looking unlikely. The one turn 7-8 Furlong distances are probably his best though. I think his best chance is underneath.
- Share The Ride: He seems very dangerous in this spot, as he looks like the lone speed here. He tried the Vosburgh last month and faded to third, as Firenze Fire ran another big effort on his favorite course. I don’t think there’s anyone in here as talented as Firenze Fire. He was really good winning the Mr. Prospector at Monmouth two starts ago, and his last three tries on dirt have been solid. The seven furlong distance is a bit of a question mark, but I think he’ll keep finding if left alone on the front end.
- Wendell Fong: I’m suspecting he’ll be scratched as he ran poorly as the beaten favorite in the slop two days again. His recent form would make him a longshot in this field anyway.
- Arch Cat: He had a two race win streak snapped at Parx last month when he was wide and he left himself too much work to do to beat a runaway winner. This is a big step up in class for a horse that hasn’t been in peak form since his layoff from the winter. He’s not for me.
- Majestic Dunhill: George Weaver has been campaigning him in almost exclusively races at 7 Furlongs. He was very game tracking the leader in his latest effort, and just missing after putting a nose in front in the stretch. If you toss his effort in the ultra-sloppy Forego, against Grade 1 company, his dirt form on fast tracks has been really good. He should be right there, however, it’s hard to endorse him on top as his last win came nearly two years ago.
- Phat Man: He’s been on the shelf since 2/29, when he finished a game second in the Gulfstream Park Mile, when beaten by Mr. Freeze, who ran a monster race that day. He was really good at Gulfstream this winter, running three of his best races in his career for Kent Sweezey. This seems to be a prep for the Cigar Mile, as I’m not sure he wants to go this short. I’m expecting him to need this race, despite some nice workouts for his return.
My Picks: 2-5-1