Race 1: Clm $16k 1M
1st: #6 Maximus Midani, lightly raced gelding hasn’t been out since an August try over the Monmouth turf. Can easily toss that one and he’s been facing significantly tougher competition than these. Three back against OC$40 company resulted in an even 5th and a solid 69 Beyer. That effort would get it done here, freshening should be good for him.
2nd: #2 Hard Sting, was tough choosing against this one, seems like the type of race Capuano always wins. Has the back class and field’s best Beyer last fall at Bel against open MdSpWt competition. It took dropping him down to the lowest level here at Laurel to break his maiden and he was 1-5 that day. Worry just enough about his late running style and rail draw to put him second.
3rd: #5 One More Nightcap, bit of value could be had here underneath, had shown improvement getting onto the turf in the three back before it went bad in the last two races. A run back to his best race puts him firmly in the picture.
Race 2: MdClm $40k 2 Year Old Fillies 5 & ½F
1st: #5 Keepyourstakeson, speaking of Capuano! This one actually broke his maiden before getting DQd in his debut, bit of a bounce second out followed by a his best try to so far earning a 51 Beyer. Love her 3 race experience amongst this group of largely unraced fillies.
2nd: #2 Glamorous Gal, George Weaver sends this $250k Keeneland purchase (Sept 2019) down from NY to start for a $40k tag in Maryland? Something suspicious there. Obviously Weaver thinks this one not good enough for NY where the purses are higher and willing to sell her just a year later for an 85% discount is not something we love to see, is it?
3rd: #12 Mischief’s Model, most likely takes a lot of money but don’t we know exactly who this filly is? 3 starts, 3 seconds, 3 56 Beyers. Consistent! Is that really the type of horse you want to take 2-1 on breaking from the far outside 12 post going 5 & ½? Not me.
Race 3: The Primoneta Stakes $100k F&M 6F
1st: #8 Timely Tradition, nothing sexy here, just a grinding 6 year old mare that’s done nothing but win 11 times and earn $402k on America’s toughest racing circuit. She’s had a banner 2020 thus far (that makes one of us eh?) with 4 wins in 7 starts including open allowance company and got a nice third against NY-breds in the Iriquois last out. Love her versatility, she can be on the lead but certainly doesn’t need it. There’s plenty of speed in this group, she can let the 1, 4, & 6 soften each other up on the front end and sit just off them.
2nd: #6 Dontletsweetfoolya, don’t think you’ll see the 6-1ML, guess here is this one goes off at 3-1 or so. And for good reason: three straight front running wins she has obviously figured out what to do on the race track. Lacey Gaudet always a popular trainer with the bettors. She’s only ever won from on the lead and usually as a well-bet favorite. She’s going to have to deal with other stakes-quality fillies on the front end, doesn’t usually result in stakes wins for 3 year olds.
3rd: #1 Never Enough Time, two-time stakes winner over this strip both in front-running fashion. Am I overlooking her? She’ll have to use her early speed strongly from the rail and there’s a good deal of speed in this field. Shortens back up to better 6F distance.
Race 4: the Concern Stakes $100k 3 Year Olds 7F
1st: #1 Francatelli, not only does he own the highest Beyer in the field, he owns the THREE highest Beyers in the field, all 94s. Winner on both turf and dirt, this one beat high quality older allowance horses last out including stakes horse Taco Supream. Just faster than these and very consistent.
2nd: #10 Dreams Untold, once highly promising, this one has had so many issues getting out of the gate there is just no way you can take him on top breaking from the far outside. 7F the right distance for him.
3rd: #6 Lebda, not really sure what kind of horse this one is. Two-time stakes winner here, has gotten crushed each time he’s tried graded company. Last out was so bad but maybe today is the day to get a price. I’d avoid.
Race 5: The Safely Kept Stakes $100k 3 Year Old Fillies 7F
1st: #5 Reagan’s Edge, has faced nothing but the absolute top quality fillies in America finishing right behind Frank’s Rockette and Venetian Harbor in each of the last 3 races. Finite came back from the last race to win the G3 Chilluki at CD last week. Beyers are still improving. Was 7 lengths in front of Hello Beautiful in the Prioress at Saratoga in September.
2nd: #8 Hello Beautiful, worth noting this horse doesn’t seem to travel well; all 5 of her wins have been locally in all 5 of her starts here. Clearly a different animal at Laurel and has the higher top Beyer than Reagan’s Edge. Should be ample speed in this field to run with her, she’s going to really need it her own way up front to make it home in this one.
3rd: #4 Lady Rocket, where’s the ceiling with this one? Brad Cox horse 2 for 2 with wins at Saratoga and Keeneland usually would be 6-5 in this spot if it weren’t for the above two. Wouldn’t be surprised for a second to see her win. Is she Brad’s next superstar?
Race 6: The Frank Whitely Stakes $100k 6F
1st: #8 Zenden, wide open field of 14 high quality horses in here, a lot is going to depend on trip and racing luck, which means a good opportunity to go price-hunting. There’s actually not that much speed in this field and Jevian Toledo will probably be sending this one from the middle of the starting gate. A lot of back class: two times he’s been graded stakes placed including a 100 Beyer in the Hooper in January. The mile that day was probably too far, shortens back up to 6F and should improve with a race under his belt after the 6 month layoff. Front running score is the way it’ll have to be done. Hoping for about the ML odds of 15-1, maybe higher?
2nd: #10 Majestic Dunhill, most likely the post time favorite given the recent G3 win in the Bold Ruler at Belmont, though it was against only 3 others and was on a muddy surface. We know he can ship here well given his second place effort in the General George last year. Will look for other prices but top contender for sure.
3rd: #11 Laki, what more needs to be said about this 7 year old Maryland Monster? Now a graded stakes winner, 5 times in 5 starts this year he’s been first or second. Earner of well over $600k, 8 time winner locally. He’s going to be there at the end. Every time I pick him he loses and vice versa, so word to the wise. But this year has been his most consistent yet.
Race 7: The Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes $100k F&M 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #4 Awe Emma, first time for legendary trainer Michael Dickinson of Tapeta Farm (inventor of the Tapeta racing surface) a massive move forward is likely from Dallas Stewart. This one was talented enough to run right with Dunbar Road (winner of G2 Delaware Handicap), Chocolate Kisses, and finish ahead of G1 winner She’s a Julie. Two recent workouts for Dickinson highly encouraging, built her stamina moving 6F twice and improved her time on the dirt most recently. Lets see if she’s ready.
2nd: #1 Lucky Stride, back to the dirt today for Trombetta after two solid but unspectacular turf stakes tries. Her 90 Beyer in the Shuvee at Saratoga stands out in this field. Rail draw is concerning considering her complete lack of speed, she’s going to have to come from the way back.
3rd: #8 Wicked Awesome, winner of three straight is nothing to sneeze at including the Twixt over this strip. Today’s foes are tougher, she’s certainly going good at the moment.
Race 8: The Richard Small Stakes $100k 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #5 Harper’s First Ride, was a bit dull in the last effort in the MdMill Classic for whatever reason after two really big coming out wins but still managed to get second. Absolutely love the three back over this surface when he came from 4 lengths behind and powered home to win by over 3 lengths ahead of Cordmaker. Two exceptional drills since the last race tells me he’s raring to go, 9-5 is probably an honest price, he stands out among this group.
2nd: #3 Wait for It, probably will be overlooked but all he’s done since the lockdown is go 3 for 4 and register two 97 Beyers. Will be in the mix late, has versatility.
3rd: #7 Top Line Growth, I’m going to toss the last race in which he ran the worst effort of his life. Kelly Rubley wouldn’t have him right back in against stakes company if she didn’t think he was doing great. He’s the track record holder here at a mile.
Race 9: Clm $5k 1M
1st: #3 Seattle Ric, two straight nice outings at this condition. Is the mile too far for him? It might be, although have to note that the winner of each of the last two immediately came back to win, and in the two back the second and 4th place finishers also immediately came back and won. So he’s been in with very live horses and gets the 5lb apprentice Alexander Crispin today.
2nd: #2 Created Special, another front runner, this one has improved a lot of late as the distances have gotten a little longer. First time today against beaten claimers a class increase that might be tough for him.
3rd: #8 Rumson Rally, always makes some sort of run late, will the pace set up for a closing victory for him? Is in form.