What a nice card Belmont has put up for today, with the Grade II Gallant Bloom being the centerpiece of the card, and two other state bred stakes as part of a solid offer that NYRA has for us. Let’s get quickly top the analysis.
1st race: 6 Furlongs. ‘Clm 25000 Purse $50,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Blue Belt (7) – Will draw a line over that last effort, got caught in a pace duel up front. The relative quick turn around gives me confidence that the horse is ready to fire and trainer Orlando Noda gave him a work that resulted in a bullet designation. Joel Rosario takes the call in here.
O Shea Can U See (2) – Analyzing this race, we see plenty of speed in the participants, so the pace should be of his liking. This is his second race with trainer Linda Rice, who scores at a 27% clip second after a claim and at a 37% second race in general with her. He has had a very tough 2019, but Rice gave him a much deserved rest and comes back fresh and with three works under his belt.
We Should Talk (5) –After enduring in a grass campaign, he returns to the dirt, in which he was very competitive in groups very similar to this one. He also takes a much needed drop in class and Irad Ortiz signs in here for trainer Gary Gullo.
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) ™MC 40000 Purse $41,000 (UP TO $7,134 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Shannon’s Girl (2) – Brad Cox trained this filly until her next to last race, and claimed her back from Steve Asmussen. It is true she has four second place finishes from eight starts, but has shown steady improvement and Joel Rosario climbs back on her saddle.
To a Friend (7) –Dropping again to maiden claimers, but also taking a cutback in distance, as this is the first time she will race in a sprint. Tom Morley hits a t a 14 % rate 3rd after a layoff and that seven post is ideal for garden spot runners like her.
Champagne Bliss (6) – Returns from a nine plus month hiatus, and her work tab was at Monmouth. Bodes well that trainer Stidham pencils her in a more competitive circuit and Lezcano is having a very nice meet so far. Very intriguing.
3rd race: 6 ½ furlongs. The Grade II Gallant Bloom. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Come Dancing (3) – Finally got her Grade I win with a powerful score in the Ballerina, in a race in which she didn’t have the cleanest of breaks, and put away the competition with amazing ease. Now drops to this Grade II, and if she repeats that effort, everyone else will be running for the place. Javier Castellano will be climbing her saddle again.
Minit to Stardom (5) – She is the fastest of this small bunch, and Cintron will put her in the lead and see how far she takes him. The six and a half is somewhat of a question mark, but you can not leave her with too easy a lead, and she can take you wire to wire.
Carrera Cat (2) – The best of the remaining three, she will be looking for her fifth win I n her last six tries. Taking a huge step up in class, but she is on the right side of the curve and Maragh knows her well. She needs to step up her game, but not impossible at all.
4th race: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) ™Mdn 75k Purse $75,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $13,050 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Smack (8) – She will run in her first race in more than eight months, but Clement’s numbers returning form 90 + days are good enough to give her the nod against these. That outside post should works wonders for her and Rosario preferred her over the number 1 filly, which he had ridden in her four races so far.
My Happy Place (1) – Switching from dirt to turf for veteran trainer Shug Mc. Gaughey, who has impressive numbers doing this (24% 1st turf, 25% from dirt to turf). Johnny V. takes over for Rosario and the cutback to six panels should work nicely for her.
Kitana (6) – Working lights out for her debut run, this daughter of Scat Daddy has Fastnet Rock as her dam’s dam sire, a powerful Australian turf sprint influence. Watch out, she can be the big upset in this event.
5th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) ™OC 62500n2x Purse $85,000 (UP TO $14,790 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Sweet Bye and Bye (1) – She should have first run at Karen’s Gem, who should dictate the pace in here, and although she has burned some money lately, the pace of the race benefits her a lot. Jose Ortiz is a master at rationing up speed, especially on the grass.
Reversethedecision (5) – This filly is returning from eleven months on the shelf, and she showed talent before that long break. She ran twice in graded company, and in both occasions she wasn’t disgraced at all, and now returns with a solid work tab behind her. Castellano riding for main client Chad Brown.
Victorine (8) – She returned from a similar layoff than my favorite and ran good enough at a shorter distance. Now gets an additional 100 yards to work with and Joel Rosario stays very hot over this meeting. Needs a hot pace in front of her.
6th race: 7 Furlongs. ™‘Mdn 62k Purse $62,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Firenze Freedom (7) – Jason Servis ships her from Monmouth, so he must feel very confident of this filly’s chances (scores at a 35% clip doing this). She was gobbling up ground in her debut, and the three that came in front of her have won since that race, including a stakes race by Colby. Irad Ortiz takes the call.
Never Heard of Her (4) – Seems to be the quickest of this group, and that debut run has aged well, as Naked Avenger took a stakes race here at Belmont last week. Joel Rosario will look to steal it from when they sprung the latches.
Allure Fortune (2) – First time starter by Bayern, whose progeny wins first time out at a 16% rate. Englehart wins 19% of the MSW he participates, and she was hammered at 10X her stud’s fee, so they feel she is talented enough to deserve that price spike.
7th race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) ‘ATColeB125K Ashley T. Cole S. COLE S.. Purse $125,000 INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Gucci Factor (8) –Last race was three months ago, in which he took the Grade III Poker, a race in my opinion stronger than this one. Connections opted to wait until the Belmont meet to run him, and if he repeats that race, he will be tough to beat. Winner of three in a row and five out of his last six.
Therapist (6) – He is a Belmont specialist, winning four out of six times here at Big Sandy. Will be better if there is some give on the ground, but I think Irad will put him close to the pace, trying to take advantage of the lack of pace after Voodoo Song, who is not even close to being the same horse as last year.
Offering Plan (7) – Extremely consistent horse, with 20 in the money finishes out of 27 lifetime races. Pace is an obstacle for him, as he is a late late closer and there are horses with more tactical speed than him. However, his consistency makes him dangerous at all times.
8th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Alw 77000n1x Purse $77,000 (UP TO $13,398 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Violencia (2) – She won very impressively her debut last February at Gulfstream Park, and now returns from a seven month bench stay with works that suggest she is ready to back up that maiden win. Jose Ortiz rides from Rodolphe Brisset, who scores at a 39% rate when sending maidens back after their graduation win.
Carrizo (6) – She is definitely the “now horse”, having won tow or her last three, and the last one leaving a great impression. Stakes are higher now, but she is in her best form ever at it will be a mistake to think she cant keep improving. Carmouche has transformed this filly and is back on her saddle.
Alisio (8) – Ran very creditably returning from an extended layoff, having been somewhat impeded at the stretch. Now is her second race after a layoff and Saez takes over for Dylan Davis, a definite jockey upgrade.
9th race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) ™‘JHettngerB125K John Hettinger S. Purse $125,000 INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Fifty Five (9) – After two consecutive graded stakes excellent showings, she now drops to the state bred restricted level, so she definitely is the filly to beat in here. The last time she ran against such a group, she won easily and has won three consecutive restricted stakes. Will be a very tough beat and Castellano keeps going to the pond with her. Best bet of the day.
Giant Zinger (3) – She is the fastest of this group and now takes a cutback in distance from running distances as long as eleven furlongs. If she can dictate the pace in a a slow enough manner, she can be the big upset in here.
War Canoe (2) – She seems to be on the positive side of the improvement graph and now Linda Rice shows as the trainer of record. That is almost a guarantee of more improvement. She should be right in the thick of things from the start and Lezcano takes over the reins.
10th race: 1 Mile. (Turf) ‘Alw 66000n1x Purse $66,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Albie (5) – When Johnny V. stays to ride the nightcap in a Sunday card, you need to pay attention. This colt returned from a nine month rest and understandably tired late after being close to the pace. Now gets blinkers and Johnny V rides back. Note that the horses that dominated that race both went on to win after that.
Southern King (3) – He returns to the grass, which I think is his preferred surface, after his performance on August 11th., in which he lost by a lil more than a length after having some problems down inside. Jose Ortiz takes the call now and Cross Border won right back after that win.
Dashing Dan (8) – He was way too keyed up in his most recent, lets see is Saez can make him rate appropriately. Now running in his second race for Brad Cox, I expect a better performance from him, maybe from a garden spot position.