Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, October 17, 2020, by Ivan Lopez

Race 1- 6 Furlongs. Clm 32000 Purse $51,000 (UP TO $8,874 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

The Great Dansky (6)

Rejected Again (1)

Leaveuwithasmile (4)

The Great Dansky returns to the dirt after a failed turf try. The group is similar to the one he beat at the Spa in July.  Rejected Again put up very fast fractions on the slop last time out. He is now facing unrestricted claiming company, but he is heading in the right direction. Leaveuwithasmile has been a popular commodity on the claim box. Failed miserably as the favorite last time out, lets see if he can rebound.

Race 2 – 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 32000 Purse $51,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $8,874 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Abiding Star (4)

Pagliacci (11)

Duncastle (8)

Abiding Star takes a drop in class and comes back to the grass, in which he has run much better. Jose Ortiz should place him on a nice stalking spot and he will be heard late in the stretch, taking a cutback from a mile. Pagliacci has been facing much better horses lately, he will feel much more comfortable against this group. He will be flying late with Irad. Duncastle is the speediest of the bunch, if he is let alone on the lead, watch out.

3 – 1 Mile. OC 80000b Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

Performer (2)

Empty Tomb  (1)

Musical Heart (3)

Performer returns from an eleven month break working steadily for Hall of Famer Shug Mc. Gaughey. If he “performs” anything close to what he had being doing, he will be very hard to beat. Empty Tomb and Musical Heart will complete the selection, in a race in which anything can happen if the big favorite doesn’t deliver.

4 – 1 1/16  Mile. (Turf) ™‘MC 40000 Purse $38,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Kiss and Run (4)

She So Naughty (10)

Saint Mere Eglise (6)

As almost all Maiden claimer races, multiple alternatives here to ponder. Spread if you can. Kiss and Run is the only filly that hasn’t run for a tag yet, and entices Rosario for the ride. She has some nice speed in front of her to run against. She So Naughty ran against a soft pace last time out, now she should have a pace much more to her liking. Saint Mere Eglise ran horribly on the dirt, but she hasn’t run against claimers on the grass. She can be the upset special here.

5 – 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000 Purse $39,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Shamrocked (6)

Vineyard Sound (7

Preamble (3)

Belmont specialist Shamrocked gets the edge here. He found a closer biased track last time out and was very game in defeat. He should be at or near the lead from the gitgo. Vineyard Sound (7) is on the upswing, and now gets the services of Irad Ortiz. Its true he is taking a step up, but cant be over looked at all. Preamble didn’t run a step on the grass, now returns to the main track and he has been doing good in similar groups.

6 – 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Mdn 63k Purse $63,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $10,962 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.

Charleston Strong (7)

Voter Protection (10)

Texas Basin (4)

Charleston Strong was a step slow in his debut, in which he ran against some good colts. Now on the grass, I expect him to be in that first flight. Voter Protection will be much fitter for this race that for his debut, and its Chad second time out. Texas Basin ran like a horse that wants much more ground than the six panels he ran in his debut. He sticks to the same distance, but with that race under his belt, he is dangerous.

7 – 7 Furlongs. (Turf) ‘Mdn 52k Purse $52,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Striking Causeway (1)

Not Phar Now (3)

Scuttlebuzz (10)

Striking Causeway was part of a very hot pace in his most recent. In this seven furlong trip and coming from the rail, probably Irad will let Not Phar Now to be the early setter and come roaring late. Speaking of Not Phar Now, he was gelded for this race and takes to the grass for the first time. American Pharoah’s progeny are very good on the lawn, so we need to take him into consideration. Scuttlebuzz takes a cutback from from a mile. He has burned some money but he should come with a flying finish. 

8 – 1 1/16  Mile. ‘Alw 55000n1x Purse $55,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Cold Hard Cash (4)

Six Percent (7)

Farragut (1)

Everything looks to be in Cold Hard Cash’s favor. He is the speediest in a field devoted of much speed and is taking a cutback from a two turn nine panels race to a one turn 8.5 furlong race. He will be very hard to beat. Six Percent is now under the training of Mike Maker, and that is something that makes you think immediately.  He needs to step up against my top pick, but Maker makes them better. Farragut completes the selection, but he will need to step up a couple of notches to challenge the two favorites.

9 – 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) ™FloralPrkB80K Floral Park S. Purse $80,000 INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Lead Guitar (8)

Mitchell Road (6)

Illhandalthecash (3)

Lead Guitar seems to be in the midst of an improving pattern and has shown versatility, coming from mid pack or winning wire to wire. Saez keeps the mount and the outside post helps. She should be part of the first flight. Mitchell Road ran great at the very tricky Kentucky Downs strip, in a better group. Trip may be somewhat shorter that her preference, but her class can take her to the winners circle. Illhandalthecash has run badly in her last two, but now she can be the speed of the speed and she likes it at Big Sandy. 

10 –  7 Furlongs. ™‘OC 40000n2x Purse $59,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Playtone (1)

J C’s Shooting Star (10)

Good Credence (4)

Maybe the most difficult race in the entire card to analyze. Playtone has been running in stakes races, and when she dropped to this level she stumbled out of the gate. That one doesn’t count at all. The cutback to seven furlongs is definitely a factor and she should have some pace to run against. J Cs Shooting Star comes from way back and her best races are with Jose Ortiz as her jockey. Look for her late in the game. Good Credence will not have to be part of the early tussle for the lead, now she can sit back a lil bit and come with her late run on the stretch.

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