I have handicapped this card as if it is going to be sloppy and sealed. Lately when the track has been drenched, it has played kindly to outside runners. In the event the track is not sloppy or I pick up a bias track, please track me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 Play- 3,4,7 / 4 / Entry / 3,7,9 / 1,2,3,6,9 = $22.50
Aggressive Pick 5 Play – 3,4,6,7 / 4,5,6 / Entry,6,8 / 3,9 / 1,2,3,6,9 = $180
Race 1- 3-7-4
#3- That’s Speightful- Let’s try to hit a big price right off the bat with this 8-1ML shot. She has only beaten 3 horses in her 3 lifetime races but there are a few things to like here. First, I love when horses go back to their original maiden conditions as this one will go back to sprinting on the dirt. That day she chased 5 wide in a 6 horse field. If it comes up sloppy this one is bred to love the slop (473 Tomlinson) with Speightstown and AP Indy in the bloodlines. Worth a shot in a race where the chalk doesn’t impress me.
#7- Thread the Needle- This is another horse that should appreciate the off going. I am going to throw out her last race which was going two turns on the slop. The cutback in distance should be just what this horse wants to do and has the perfect outside post.
#4- Communal- She has run the fastest race of anyone in the race but I have major concerns for a horse who didn’t finish her last race and has not been on the track since July. Add the fact that Albertani is 2 for 89 with layoffs of this length and I can’t endorse on top at a cheap price
#1- Hattie L- Pletcher 3yo first time starters are usually overbet and never run a step. If this horse was one of his good ones it would be down south. Stay away.
Race 2- 4-6-5
Thunder’s Honor looks like a strong single here. The only question is will he take to the slop.
Race 3- Entry – 8-6
Rice Entry- Of the two parts of the entry, I really like fillet of Sole here. I often talk about trainer trends and showings of confidence. Jason Servis almost doubling his claiming price off a 6 length loss is an example. That race, he went 6 wide and closed nicely into a race where the winner easily wired the field. Part of me wants the other half of the entry to scratch to bring some value to this horse.
#8- Admiral Blue- One of his best races of the year was when he had to run in the slop. That day he lost to Ekhitbaar who would tower over this field. I said at the beginning of the meet that this duo would be heating up and Reyes has now won 20 percent of his mounts. He has run against a ton better and finally finds a spot where he will be competitive. 5-1 might be a gift in retrospect.
#6- Pretentious- If not for the connections I might be all over this horse. But I will wait until they beat me until I start to respect them at a short price.
Race 4- 3-9-7
#3- London House- One of my favorite handicapping angles is when a horse goes for many times that of the average sire cost. This son of Honorable Dillon went for 22x the average sire fee which means he showed some talent in the sales. The workouts have been strong in the mornings and I am willing to give this one another chance.
#9- Top of The Mint- Mark Henning does a great job with first time starters and this one is bred to like the off going a bit. I am a little hesitant to put up top since the breeding doesn’t suggest a win early pedigree. Check Maggie and the board before betting.
#7- Show Prince- He has been knocking at the door and the cutback should help.
Race 5- 1-3-6
#1- Salty Smile- This looks like a spread race to me but I will side with the ML chalk on top. She seems to love the off going which she will likely get and her best races have come on this track. There should be enough speed to set him her closing kick if it is a fair track or a closer bias.
#3- Tied Up- She is projected to be on the lead but does not need it to win. That type of flexibility might come in handy in a race with other speeds.
#6- Elizabeth Nicole- She is another likely to be forwardly placed and has the outside draw to the other speeds which will help. She has beaten a few of these already so the 8-1 ML is a bit of an overlay.
Race 6- 1-3-5
#1- Expert- It is hard to pass up a Jason Servis first off the claim horse. He just happens to have a way to improve these horse time and time again as evident by his 42% win percentage first off the claim. Any improvement on this horse and he will be in the winners circle.
#3- Playwright- He has been in the exact 5 of his last 6 races and that includes the 4th place finish where he bobbled at the start and then had a terrible trip, only to lose by 4 lengths to 3 next out winners. Danny Gargan rises this horse in claim price off a lose is a great angle.
#5- Starship Zeus- He has by far the fastest races in the field but I do not like the long layoff or the month break in workouts. The horse is obviously not in the best condition and doesn’t like to win races.
Race 7- 7-10-5
#7- Gio d’Oro – Talk about a wide open race. I will take the horse that is projected to be alone on the lead and whose only races have come on off tracks. He has yet to run a bad race and has never been off the board in his 7 lifetime races. If they leave him alone on the front end he is gone. If he gets pushed, it is anyone’s race.
#10- Blugrascat’s Smile- I really like horses cutting back to the mile distance like this horse is doing here. He gets a huge jockey upgrade from Luzzi to David Cohen and should sit a nice stalking trip from the outside. 8-1 is a great price.
#5- Uncle Sigh- He is logical and going first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. It would not shock me if he won but in a price this wide open I want a couple of prices.
Race 8- 6-4-3
#6- Blindwillie McTell- Assuming that the track is playing fair, this will be my play of the day. Linda Rice excels with 2nd time starters and this horse ran a great 2nd behind Le General who came back to win impressively. Another of my favorite handicapping angles is a Maiden in a Stakes race.
#4- Kosciuszko- He failed at short odds last time out but there are next time out winners all over this racing charts. He is talented and capable of running a good one here.
#4- Kadens Courage- He has gotten better each time out and any improvement off his 11 length blowout win last time out will make him hard to beat. It is concerning that his worse race was with a bit of moisture in the ground.
Race 9- 8-4-2