2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 7
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[Welcome to the seventh edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. Just to rehash a topic that was brought up in the first edition of this article for the new year, one piece of determining criteria has been modified slightly. This one item in the determining criteria that I am going to provide some clarification revolves around a potential cut-off date for horses to be eligible to make either the BUY or SELL Lists. On February 17th, if a horse has not run in a prep race since the beginning of 2020, then that runner is not eligible to be included in either list. This way, I am not beholden to including runners that may have put forth brilliant two year old campaigns for consideration but have yet to race as three year olds. This will certainly cause some consternation amongst readers (especially fans of Dennis’ Moment and Storm the Court) but with this stipulation in effect, then the ranks of the BUY and SELL Lists will be filled with horses that have demonstrated that they actually deserve mentioning and the included runners are not simply being used as placeholders for a spot in the mere hope that they will be just as good as a three year old as they were at the age of two. By my count there are four 2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races in the United States that will be contested between now, February 3rd, and February 17th, including one race that will be run on February 17th itself. Thus there has been and still is ample opportunity for any of these prospective Derby contenders to get a prep race underneath them before this deadline and therefore put forth their overall resume for consideration. That being said, if a horse were to run in a prep race after February 17th and give an impressive performance, then that horse certainly would be eligible for consideration in the editions for the weeks following the deadline.
Since the last edition of this feature, there have been four Kentucky Derby prep races that have been run and awarded points to the top four finishers. These races were: the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed) run at Oaklawn Park on January 24th and won by Steve Asmussen’s Gold Street, the Grade 3 Withers Stakes run at Aqueduct Racetrack on February 1st and won by Linda Rice’s Max Player, the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes run at Gulfstream Park on February 1st and won by Barclay Tagg’s Tiz the Law, and finally the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes run at Santa Anita Park on February 1st and won by Bob Baffert’s Thousand Words. My overall impression of these four most recent prep races has been somewhat mixed. In several races the projected favorites got the job done and won their respective preps (one in dominating fashion despite still being a bit green, while another really had to gut out the victory); then in another race, a logical contender (but still somewhat of a surprise) received a perfect trip and ran down the tiring favorite in the deep stretch and finally, a horse that had proven himself racing in sloppy conditions, asserted himself once again which resulted in an impressive gate to wire victory. For those of you who have been following this early portion of the prep season thus far, those four aforementioned winners would be, in order: Tiz the Law, Thousand Words, Max Player and Gold Street.
Rather than post several paragraphs recapping each of those four prep races in-depth, I’m going to switch things up and briefly discuss each pertinent performance when that particular horse comes up in either the BUY or SELL Lists. Moreover, for those horses that have yet to run but will be contending a prep race within the next two weeks, I will highlight key morning works that could give an indication as to their fitness levels heading into those races. Finally, for each of the horses for which their connections have mentioned which Derby prep is being targeted next, I will examine those moves and provide my thoughts on their chances going forward. So without further ado, let’s reveal this week’s Kentucky Derby Futures Index BUY and SELL Lists!]
BUY
1. (Last Week: 3) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 4-3-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1), 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and 1st in Holy Bull Stakes (G3); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)
Well we finally have a new top contender on the Buy List following a long, long time with Dennis’ Moment occupying the top spot (he was finally removed as he will not be making his 2020 debut until February 29th in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, which is past the February 17th cutoff date). Tiz the Law appeared to return to the dominant form that he had displayed in the early part of 2019 with a rather impressive performance last Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Despite some questionable decisions being made during the trip by jockey Manny Franco and a bout of greenness being displayed down the stretch, Tiz the Law won this race quite easily. The 117 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts is a monstrous figure and a nice rebound from the downward trend that he had been displaying in 2019. His running style is rather versatile as he displayed some newfound early speed last time out (before Franco took hold of him and backed him off the lead) and this should serve him well going forward.
However, his connections cannot hope to keep on winning so long as Franco remains aboard. The level of competition is going to keep on getting tougher as the season progresses and it is now in two straight races that Franco has gotten Tiz the Law into traffic trouble in the early stages of races and then to be bailed out by the colt’s supreme talent and ability. Sackatoga Stable and Tagg have indicated that either the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby or the Grade 1 Florida Derby are the two most likely landing spots for this colt’s next race and that is somewhat concerning as it means that Tiz the Law will only have one prep race in the three months leading up to the Derby, which is not exactly an ideal foundation for a young three year old horse about to contest a rigorous ten furlongs with 19 other rivals. While Tiz the Law is certainly one to keep an eye on going forward, he very well could slip from his perch atop the standings in the coming weeks.
2. (Last Week: 5) Enforceable (Tapit-Dixie Union; Mark Casse; John C. Oxley; 7-2-1-2; 3rd in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 4th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and 1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); 13 Kentucky Derby Points)
Enforceable will return to action in about a week and a half in the upcoming Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes down at Fair Grounds in New Orleans (one important note for this race is that it has attracted a lot of interest to the point that the track and Churchill Downs Incorporated, Fair Grounds’ parent company, have considered dividing the race into two divisions with the same size purses and the original amount of Kentucky Derby points available: 50-20-10-5). Enforceable has posted just one work over the main track at Fair Grounds since his Lecomte victory and it was an alright effort. I would expect to see Casse tighten the screws a bit in his final work this weekend to make sure his colt is in proper form before racing again. The added half furlong distance of the Risen Star should certainly work in Enforceable’s favor given his closer’s running style (provided there is enough early speed entered to set the race up for him). With a win or even a second place finish in the Risen Star Stakes on February 15th, Enforceable could begin to separate himself from the rest of the potential Derby contenders and make himself a legitimate contender to hit the board on May 2nd.
3. (Last Week: 2) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 7-2-0-2; 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and 4th in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed); 11 Kentucky Derby Points)
Now some may be questioning as to why Silver Prospector is remaining this high up on the Buy List following a disappointing effort last time out at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes. First and foremost, I had previously mentioned that I was not elated about seeing this colt make his 2020 debut in a mile race for Asmussen after he had previously demonstrated that he most certainly prefers going longer. Second, given the dearth of early speed and the very sloppy conditions, this race was pretty much over for Silver Prospector when he broke slowly from the gates and found himself towards the rear of the field early on. It appears that Asmussen still has plenty of faith in his young charge as he is willing to run him again in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on February 17th, just 3.5 weeks after his most recent effort. Fortunately for Silver Prospector the distance increases back out to eight and a half furlongs which should bode well for his chances of hitting the board at the very least. This colt shows just one very sharp five furlong breeze since his Smarty Jones performance and it was a fairly sharp one run in 1:00.60. This is an encouraging sign and I fully expect Silver Prospector to rebound off his last out performance.
4. (Last Week: On the Verge) Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile-Pomeroy; Bob Baffert; Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 20 Kentucky Derby Points)
I’m not quite sure why I put Thousand Words on this list as I, along with many others, are not entirely sure if this colt is even the best three year old Bob Baffert has in his barn at the moment. For the second straight time, Thousand Words had to gut out a victory and just get up in time at the wire as he found himself having to deal with three other determined rivals down the stretch. The 116 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that effort was a solid enough figure and another improvement (albeit a very slight one) as he continues on in his career. I honestly don’t know what it is about this colt, but I do admire his sheer will to win and if continues to display that same level of gameness in his next start, then he has a very good chance at making it into the starting gates on May 2nd. Baffert or the connections have indicated that the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes held in March at Santa Anita is likely the next race that Thousand Words will be pointed towards, which bodes well as the fields out in California have not been particularly large and not nearly as competitive as some of those races being run in the Midwest or on the East Coast. A win or even a board finish for Thousand Words in the San Felipe would certainly help to propel this colt towards the top of the current Derby leaderboard.
5. (Last Week: 4) Shotski (Blame-Bluegrass Cat; Jeremiah O’Dwyer; Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, Pantofel Stable and Mike Karty; 5-2-1-0; 1st in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and 2nd in the Withers Stakes (G3); 14 Kentucky Derby Points).
Shotski’s most recent effort in the Withers Stakes is both frustrating and encouraging at the same time. On the one hand, jockey Luis Saez should have been well aware that there was plenty of other early speed entered into that field (unlike in the Remsen when Shotski was the lone speed horse entered); yet, Saez elected to go straight to the lead and was forced to contend with multiple rivals putting pressure on him from the get go and even when he put away those horses, he still had other challengers willing to duel with him down the stretch. This brings me to my other point in that Shotski was ultra-game down the stretch in that performance as he was able to withstand multiple bids to seize control of the lead and it was only in the final furlong of the race that he eventually succumbed to Max Player who had received an ideal trip throughout the entirety of the race. Going forward, in order for Shotski to continue to be a factor in these longer races at nine furlongs and beyond, Saez needs to try and rate this colt rather than go straight to the front and dare his rivals to come after him. If Shotski can successfully change up his running style, then he very well could be a major player later this winter/spring. O’Dwyer has indicated that he wants to shorten Shotski up in distance for his next prep race and thus his next start could either be in the one turn mile that is the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes up at Aqueduct or he could ship Shotski out to Gulfstream Park to contest the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at eight and a half furlongs at the end of the month.
ON THE VERGE:
Ajaaweed (Curlin-Daaher; Kiaran McLaughlin; Shadwell Stable; 4-1-1-0; 4th in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 2nd in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 5 Kentucky Derby Points)
Ajaaweed will make his next start this weekend in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes (a race that I will be previewing on Friday night on my Board Hitters & Bourbon podcast) at Tampa Bay Downs. The field for that race has already been drawn and aside from Independence Hall, it does not appear to be that particularly competitive. The only drawback is that the distance for this next race is that it will be run at eight and a half furlongs and given Ajaaweed’s running style and the way he closed down the stretch in the Remsen back in December, this cutback in distance could be a bit of a hindrance to his hitting the board on Saturday. Since the beginning of the year, Ajaaweed has been putting forth some very solid four and five furlong works over the surface at the training track at Palm Meadows including a nice five furlong work breezed in 1:00.65 on January 31st. I’m not necessarily sure that Ajaaweed will win on Saturday unless he truly is a legitimate Derby contender but a board finish most definitely is not out of the question.
Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D Fielding, and Golconda Stables; 2-2-0-0, 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
This son of Into Mischief is likely to make his next start in March in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, but I do have serious reservations about his ability to continue to be able to contend as the distance for these prep races continues to increase. Thus far Into Mischief has been brilliant at producing graded stake winning sprinters and Mr Greeley himself was a solid sprinter as well, thus races run at perhaps even nine furlongs might be too far for this young colt. Furthermore, since January 15th, this colt has worked out four times over the main track at Santa Anita and aside from a sharp four furlong work, the rest of his works have been uninspiring to say the least. All of these would normally lead to me discounting a colt like this but given that he is trained by Baffert, perhaps I will wait until his next start before passing complete judgement on him.
Portos (Tapit-Tiznow; Todd Pletcher; Wertheimer and Frere; 5-1-1-2; 3rd in the Withers Stakes (G3); 2 Kentucky Derby Points)
I was a bit disappointed with how Portos ran last Saturday in the Withers, as I had fairly high hopes for him given his connections and very impressive pedigree. In prior efforts, he had shown that his running style was not necessarily that of a one run closer as he had demonstrated that he could run a bit closer to the pace if needed. Unfortunately, he did not break particularly well on Saturday over a track that seemed to be carrying speed fairly well and thus he found himself towards the rear of the field early on. Jose Lezcano fortunately did not panic and gradually moved his charge into contention and thus by the time the field hit the top of the stretch, Portos was in position to begin to grind out a closing run and nearly nailed Shotski at the wire for second. Going forward, I’m not entirely convinced that such a running style is going to be all that effective for a successful Derby run (instead it appears that this colt might be more well suited to winning the Belmont Stakes). Furthermore, considering that four of his five races thus far have been at nine furlongs and perhaps that lack of variety might end up dulling this colt just a bit. While neither the connections nor Pletcher have indicated as to which prep race will be the next for Portos, it would not surprise me to see Pletcher ship him out of New York to go race at perhaps Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth.
SELL
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 1) Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 5-1-2-0; 2nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and 5th in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)
Scabbard really disappointed last time out in his 2020 debut in the Lecomte Stakes, although perhaps that showing can be attributed to the long layoff in-between starts. Now Scabbard will make his next start in the Risen Star next weekend at Fair Grounds and I’ve yet to see much from his lone work thus far down at Fair Grounds that would make me envision him as a serious contender going forward. His speed ratings would have to improve significantly in order for him to be a major factor next time out. Yet his pedigree is solid enough for him to be able to handle the nine furlong test of the Risen Star so perhaps he could pick up a few Derby points next Saturday.
2. (Last Week: 4) Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 6-2-1-1; 2nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st in Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed) and 3rd in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
In my opinion, Shoplifted should have won that Smarty Jones Stakes given his affinity for the distance and a pedigree that suggested he would easily handle sloppy racing conditions. Instead, he was soundly beaten by Gold Street and the loss likely left Asmussen and the connections scratching their heads a bit. It appears that Shoplifted is going to be pointed towards the Southwest Stakes on February 17th at Oaklawn Park and this is somewhat of an interesting move for him. First and foremost, this next race follows a very short three and a half week turnaround and second, it forces Shoplifted to stretch back out to eight and a half furlongs, a distance at which he was far from successful the last time attempting it. Shoplifted’s lone work since his Smarty Jones performance is not particularly flashy but then again this colt has never produced any really sharp works since December, so perhaps he will run well in just under two weeks time. Overall, though I truly doubt that Shoplifted is a legitimate Derby contender and instead we might see him running in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day.
3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Toledo (Into Mischief-Bernardini; Chad Brown; Juddmonte Farms; 4-1-2-1; 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3); 2 Kentucky Derby Points)
Prior to contesting the Holy Bull Stakes last Saturday, I had been absolutely nonplussed with Toledo’s efforts in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park in which he was well beaten by Ete Indien. (Now I do need to admit though that I made him my top selection on last week’s Board Hitters & Bourbon podcast when I covered the Holy Bull as I figured his pedigree was solid enough to handle the stretch out in distance and I was searching to an alternative to Tiz the Law to use on top). But after watching both Tiz the Law and Ete Indien beat him by at least a 1/16th of a mile if not more and seeing the paltry 99 TimeForm speed rating that Toledo earned for that embarrassment, I want no part of this colt going forward regardless of the connections. Following the race, Brown offered no indication as to where he was pointing this colt next but it would not surprise me at all if he was taken off the Derby trail for awhile and returned to racing against Allowance company to get some more experience underneath him.
4. (Last Week: 2) Anneau d’Or (Medaglia d’Oro-Tapit; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 3-1-2-0; 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and 2nd in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
Anneau d’Or is projected to make his next start next Saturday in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds which is somewhat of an odd move for Blaine Wright as this is a California (or more specifically Golden Gate Fields based horse) that has a local prep in his own backyard in the El Camino Real Derby (Listed) run at nine furlongs on the tapeta at Golden Gate and a race that not only awards Derby points but also conveys an automatic entry into the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes for the winner. Last year, Wright kept his Derby contender Anothertwistafate at home and was rewarded with a win in the El Camino Real Derby before he took the show on the road to run second in both the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby and the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. Perhaps Wright is looking to toughen up Anneau d’Or by forcing him to square off against some of his possible rivals in a tougher prep race than what he’d likely encounter at Golden Gate. This is a fairly good colt as his close second place finish behind Thousand Words in the Los Alamitos Futurity was backed up by Thousand Words winning the Robert B. Lewis last Saturday. Furthermore, this colt has been increasing his workload (in distance at least) with morning works of five, six and seven furlongs over the all weather track at Golden Gate. With a solid showing in the Risen Star, Anneau d’Or could back up his last two second place efforts, move towards the top of the Derby leaderboard and find himself swiftly removed from this list.
5. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Max Player (Honor Code-Not For Love; Linda Rice; George E. Hall; 3-2-1-0; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
Is Max Player a legitimate threat going forward or did he merely take advantage of slow fractions in the Withers, an ideal trip and pace setup and then catching a flagging longtime leader in the deep stretch? My opinion of this horse leans towards the latter. Max Player really did not face all that much in this year’s edition of the Withers and when he finally drew alongside Shotski, that rival did not put up any fight considering how much he had been softened up earlier in the race having to deal with multiple other horses putting pressure on him throughout the race. The 114 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance is a massive number considering that this was just his third career start and his first against graded stakes company. I would not be at all surprised to see him bounce next time out given the 22 point jump in speed ratings. Furthermore, the connections are giving this colt a ridiculously long amount of time off before his next start as they have indicated that he will not race again until the nine furlong Grade 2 Wood Memorial in April. That is an absolutely insane amount of time off to give to such a lightly raced colt and with such little foundation underneath him, I doubt he will fare well in the Derby, if he even makes it into the field for that race.