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R1- Competitive field of 10 kicks off the Saturday night card. We’ll give the nod to 1- Sharm as the top pick. Mid-pack pressing type should get a nice ground saving run on the rail under the talented Machado. Also gets some pace to run at. Projects to be right there with the best of these. 5- Trappe Valley went favored on the raise to $8,000 open company New Year’s day. A repeat of the speed figure earned in that race makes him a winner. Reliable connections. Lots to like here. Blinkers On the 9-Northern Ranger who was fifth behind Trappe Valley in that same New Year’s day race. We like that 8-1 ML price, especially now he’s back in for the $5,000 claiming price, and probably the value play in the race. 10- Ripe ships in from the Mid-Atlantic for a good owner/trainer in Santangelo. Tote will tell if this guy is live or not, in my opinion.
R2- We’ll take a shot here with an 8-1ML mare in 3-Accessorizing. Indiana bred is freshened up for this race. Shows a descent work 1/11/19. And I prefer to take shot with a ‘new shooter’ against this group where the contenders have been facing each other recently. She has sprint races on her form that can win this race. Hoping she sits mid-pack tracking the pace and is fit enough to punch home while getting first run on the deep closers. Demand every bit of this 8-1 if thinking about playing straight her up to win. 6- Curious Ruth was a good second last out at this level for Thomas and McKee. Likely needed that race being it was off a 6 month layoff. She looks like a bit of a ‘need an unpressured lead in order to win’ type, but if she clears the field, then she’s a big threat to wire this group second off the layoff. 9- Napa Valley Rose at a juicy 10-1ML is the likely horse to run this field down late, if the speed duel between 6 and 7 develops as it looks to be on paper.
R3- The price shopping continues here with 15-1ML selection of 8- Miss Frank E. We like the fact she looks to be lone speed. Many handicappers have a betting angle that longshot horses, such as this one, win at a higher percentages in races where the longshot is either loose on the lead (like we predict today) or lays back and closes from the back into a very fast pace. We see this scenario today in Miss Frank E and at 15-1 we’re willing to bet she can wire them. You’ll cash on this kind of horse more than once every fifteen races. She owns a 11-5-0-2 record at TP to help the case on her. 9- Munchies was a solid second behind the descent for the level Jewelisa. She’ll get a good trip under McKee and is good enough to win. 6- I Got It has enough speed to stay relatively close to the early pace and should get first run on the deep closers, who need some help in this ‘pace-less’ race on paper.
R4- 11 On John projects to track the 10- Fearless Kitty for the first 4 to 5 five furlongs of the race and then run ‘Kitty down in the stretch. The outside two make up my exacta with a slight nod to the 11 because he’ll have a target in the 10 to run down. In my opinion, the race goes through these two. I think they should get you through the multi-race bets barring a chaotic result unless the 1 or 12 jump up with a big races. 1- Uncle Billy has been dismal in his last three at Laurel against better. He has races good enough to win this on paper, but we’re skeptical that his form has declined drastically. If he’s hammered at the window then take more caution as the word may be out if he’s doing better which would produce one of his better races. 12- Twenty Gauge can be right there with the top two, but I believe is a few lengths slower on paper than the top two and why he’s my fourth pick.
R5- One of the weaker conditions written at Turfway kicks off the late pick 4 in F&M $5,000 non-winners of a race in 12 months. I suggest spreading in the multi-race bets. 7- Dayin Deauville is the top pick off connections, being a new shooter versus this group, and back class from last years TP meet. We’ll bet the 29% 180 day plus layoff trainer has her race ready first off the bench. 8- Dream Park has a right to improve second start of the meet off that descent 5th against better. Can this speedball gal get the 6 furlongs is the question? 12- Alluring Approval draws outside and gets the hot riding John McKee. Seems to be working well for the return. The 0-3 record at TP is a concern, but those races were versus tougher than today. 5- Rockport Dancer has races at Woodbine the last few years that if repeated today would drown this group. But her recent form suggests she’s not the same horse that she was then. If she runs back to the 12/7/18 race, she’s likely a winner. But that’s a big if and I don’t know if 4-1 is enough of a price to take that ‘if.
R6- 3-Thomas Shelby goes as the day’s best bet. Morning exercise rider for Ward Julio Garcia usually takes ultra-live mounts for this barn. Solid Maiden winner last out we think is a better horse than the other competitors who come out of a wonky race won by a big longshot. 1A Ship of the line was away slow and rushed up in that aforementioned 1/3/19 race. Blinkers On and better break could make this guy a wire threat. They liked him enough to ship out to Santa Anita to run in an overnight stake. Maybe?!? I think if you can draw the line between one of these two, then you have your late pick 4 single.
R7- This race was brought back from last Saturday’s cancelled card. Last week 6 entered, now a full field of 13. 7- Sugarsugarsugar has been consistent in the last two. This race again came up a little light for this condition historically speaking, so we see this mare as taking on easier today. Love playing the Contreras barn as they just win races. Lots to like here. 6- Kantastic claimed in both of her last two starts steps up in class today. She’s sharp, in form and capable of being right there at the end. But she is on the raise?!?! Did run well on the poly in Chicago over the summer FWIW. Mixed signals on this one. 3- Shared Silence is the class of the field but will need to be race ready off the 180 day plus layoff to upend either of the top two picks. We’ll side with the slightly better prices outside her who boast good enough recent form to take down the Saturday co-feature.
R8- 10 I’m a Lucky Guy is the top pick to close out the card. Very reliable trainer Van Berg drops this guy down to $5,000 off a solid 3rd for $7,500. He won with a dropper of similar form to this one on Thursday night. If the closer can work out a descent trip from the 10 post, he’ll be tough to beat. 4- Kitten for Granny was a well beaten third at this level last out behind the runaway winner Ian Smith. This guy should be more fit second off the layoff and run a better race. Serious win end threat. 6- Brouillard ran a banger from the outside post in the nightcap two Saturdays ago. A repeat of that an he’s right there with the top two