2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 1
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[Welcome to the first edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index hosted by The Daily Gallop. Based upon viewer and editor feedback from the inaugural series, it appears that this feature is rather popular as it is not what one expects from the normal Top 10 Lists of Kentucky Derby Contenders. Now for those that are unfamiliar with this series or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, what I set out to do at the beginning of this year (for the 2019 Road to the Kentucky Derby) was to put forth a unique and interactive take on a listing of horses that I believed were amongst the top contenders not only to hit the board but also to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby. The way this column tried to achieve that goal was by treating the various potential Derby contenders as commodities on the stock market. Thus opinions were offered on which horses were to be considered major competitors to potentially hit the board in the Derby and therefore their stocks should be bought into as well as which horses were mere pretenders and thus should be divested from as their stock value was falling. Just like a real futures index, this piece tried to provide projections as to which runners might offer the most value going forward up until Derby Day on May 4th, 2019.
Now in the 2019 debut of this feature, when I was considering possible candidates for both the BUY and SELL lists, two major criteria were taken into consideration. The first criteria was that a horse must have run in a Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Race on or after January 1st, 2019. However, since we are dealing with two year olds at the moment (at least up until January 1st of 2020), I am going to amend that stipulation just slightly as many of the potential candidates for either the BUY or SELL lists have just a handful of starts to their name at the moment and to date, only FIVE true Kentucky Derby Prep races have been run which greatly reduces the pool of eligible horses to select from. Thus from today up until December 31st, any two year that has run in a graded stakes effort on dirt, synthetic or turf, is hereby eligible for inclusion for entry onto either list. However, on January 1st, the original criteria of needing to run in an actual Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep race will take precedent. For those of you that are curious as to exactly which five prep races have been run thus far, they are: the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes run at 8.5 furlongs on September 14th at Churchill Downs; the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes run at 8.5 furlongs on September 27th at Santa Anita Park; the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes run at one mile on October 5th at Belmont Park; the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity run at 8.5 furlongs on October 5th at Keeneland Race Course; and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile run at 8.5 furlongs on November 1st at Santa Anita Park.
The second of the two criteria used in determining eligible runners for both the BUY and SELL lists and arguably the more important of the two conditions concerns runners that were initially on the Derby trail but had since been removed due to injury or poor performance; those horses were ineligible to make either list as well as it was not fair to offer up opinions on horses that did not have any chance of making the starting gates on May 4th at Churchill Downs. This stipulation still stands; however, should a horse come down with an injury or be removed by his connections from Derby contention during the writing of each week’s edition of this Index, there is the possibility that the horse could slip through the cracks and accidentally be left on either list for one week. Such an error would be promptly noted and addressed though in the following week.
Finally, this second season for the Kentucky Derby Futures Index marks a bit of unfamiliar territory for this writer. Rather than dealing with semi-established commodities in three year old colts, geldings and ridglings that have experience contending in at least several graded stakes efforts, instead we are now analyzing two-year olds that are either quite precocious and may peak well before that first Saturday in May or those runners that are currently flying under the radar as they have yet to display their full potential or even those horses that have yet to contest a race at this point in their careers. Historically speaking, dominating performances and success in prep races or even graded stakes races in general as a two year old does not necessarily guarantee victory in the Kentucky Derby. Looking back over the past six Kentucky Derby winners, beginning in 2014 with California Chrome and concluding with this year’s “winner” Country House, just two of those six winners won any sort of graded stakes effort as a two year old. These winners were American Pharoah who won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and then the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes (now called the American Pharoah Stakes) in September of 2014 before not appearing again until March of the following year in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The following year, Nyquist rolled over his fellow two year olds en-route to capturing the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes, the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; as a three year old he continued his dominance winning two more Derby prep efforts before capturing the Derby itself on May 2nd, 2016. However, these two champions stand in stark contrast to the likes of California Chrome (who did not win a graded stakes race until he won the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes in March of 2014, as a three year old), Always Dreaming (his first ever graded stakes appearance and win came in the 2017 Grade 1 Florida Derby), Justify (who famously never ran as a two year old), and Country House (whose first graded stakes triumph actually came in the Kentucky Derby after having hit the board several times in key prep races earlier in the year). Thus it is fairly apparent that it takes a horse of incredible talent to be able to triumph over his rivals at the age of two and then carry that supremacy into a three year old campaign potentially culminating with a Kentucky Derby win.
As this is just the nascent article in this year’s Kentucky Derby Futures Index series and next week’s edition will be debuting much earlier in the week (likely on Monday November 11th or Tuesday November 12th), the prospects for both the BUY and SELL lists will just be listed with their pertinent stats and no explanations provided as to why they were chosen for each list. Next week’s article will address the reasoning behind each horse’s inclusion on either list and I will provide relevant speed figures, stats and pedigree notes to provide a sense of clarity as to the methodology behind my reasoning. Furthermore, given the fact that there are no Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, this will hopefully give potential readers of this piece a little bit of time to digest what was discussed above and thus leave them expectant as to why certain horses were included or not or why they were put on one list and not the other. So without ado, let’s unveil this week’s Top 5 BUY/SELL nominees.]
BUY
1. Maxfield (Street Sense-Bernardini; Brendan Walsh; Godolphin; 2-2-0-0; 1st in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 2-2-0-0; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. Independence Hall (Constitution-Cape Town; Michael Trombetta; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, Kathleen and Robert Verratti; 2-2-0-0; 1st in the Nashua Stakes* (G3); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. Structor (Palace Malice-More Than Ready; Chad Brown; Jeff Drown & Don Rachel; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf* (G1); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
SELL
1. Eight Rings (Empire Maker-Pure Prize; Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, et al; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 4-1-1-0; 2nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 4-1-2-0; 2nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3); 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. Green Light Go (Hard Spun-Pleasantly Perfect; Jimmy Jerkens; Stronach Stables; 3-2-1-0; 1st in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Champagne Stakes (G1); 4 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. Storm the Court (Court Vision-Tejano Run; Peter Eurton; Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock; 4-2-0-1; DNF in the Del Mar Futurity* (G1), 3rd in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)