Hey everyone, it feels good to get the Stronach Pick 5 back, as I enjoy the betting opportunity and the usual large pool this bet offers. For the weeks I have done this we are 1:9 and up +$236. We have had a few weeks we have gone 4:5 missing anywhere from 2k-5k payouts, but if it is your first time reading, I try to limit the play to around $100-$150 to have options for all levels of players. If there is a race I feel strongly about, I will often look to play individually or with daily doubles etc, so keep your options open on whichever horse you may like the best.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R7
Nice big field to start this sequence out this week, but they are calling for Thunderstorms and flood watch, so I am going to handicap this for the off the turf but will give options either way. A lot of these horses have run on dirt before, so guessing who will scratch is difficult so there are a lot of horses for this leg before scratches. This race I am vague on selections, only because there is a good chance this race outlook changes drastically.
2 ZIP LINE TO HEAVEN- Ran well in March at Laurel with a lot of good early pace action for this level. Appears that this horse should do well in the slop, but having never attempted it, just have the pedigree line to go off at this point.
3 THE CAIRO KID- Almost won in debut in January before getting time off but has had really solid workouts before an odd move to 7F. Comes back to shorter and should benefit as this gelding has tired in both efforts. At an 8-1 ML could really prove interesting.
6 DESHACKLED- Again, a lot of early pace here and keeps McCarthy aboard from the previous outing. Previous outing had fast early pace, and this gelding could benefit from this field, but having seen that effort on the slop, need to use here.
10 ABUELO PAPS-Impressive last out for the small barn here but the BEYER figure for that day seems inflated. I want to see this horse run again, but I would hate to lose this sequence to a horse that looks this strong on paper.
TURF: 15-6-2-10 SLOPPY DIRT: 2-3-7-6-10-9-15-16
Gulfstream Park R9
7 LOVE NEST- Not a crazy early speed horse but will be very close to what should be considered cheap speed in the 3 and 4, I think. Most consistent outings from this horse in the field with only a few exceptions. He is a Gulfstream horse with 4 of his 6 wins coming here in only 9 attempts. Berrios stays aboard after the win last out, could be a short price but worth it.
1 THE ROBERT- Not usually a fan of Paco on an off the pace type horse, but with the amount of “cheap speed” in this race, Paco could have the perfect setup. Horse loves the 8.5F distance and should have the help he needs to get a pace to close into. Last out, was not a closers setup but still almost got the job done. That can be a credit to the horse having a lot of will, or how good Rosario was in the mount that day. Either way I will not let this gelding beat me.
Dirt: 7-1
Laurel R8
Same as Race 7- watch the weather changes and scratches.
13 TEAM EFFORT- Has won on slop before and no reason to think will not perform well on the slop again, although that effort was only at 1 mile. Workouts have been good for this level and one I want to watch if it’s a wet track. Has speed and depending on scratches, could be alone out there.
15 MIND THE GAP- On paper from that May effort at Churchill downs, this horse would tower over this field in class and pace. Had a good showing on the slop at Laurel in 2018 and is a lightly raced 4-year-old in comparison to a lot we have seen. See which jock gets the mount for Delacour here after scratches is my assumption.
1 BEST OFFER- Do not be scared by the 30-1 Morning Line, that is for turf versus this field of entries. We will not see that, and this horse will take money. Has been in the money 5:7 times on the wet stuff and could be able to sit nicely and save ground with the speed he has shown. With a patient ride from Santiago- or whoever end up on this mount, could be dangerous.
TURF:4-14-9 SLOPPY DIRT:13-15-1-7
Golden Gate R3
5 KAYLA’S COWGIRL- Do I have to look elsewhere? I suppose if I want to single anywhere in the sequence, a Wong entry at Golden Gate is not the worst possible spot. It would allow me to be covered in the Laurel Races depending on the scratches. NEGATIVES- Ran at the cheap level at Santa Anita, now comes to Golden Gate and goes right to the cheap level- is confidence in this filly gone? If she can return to the 2019 Golden Gate form, should be good today, but I could make a solid argument to play against if I wanted. If we can beat this filly, the sequence could pay really nicely.
3 FLYING HOME- Interesting filly here making her second start. Looked good that day and now adds blinkers which could help along with this class drop.
7 BANK OF MANY- Has been in declining form but gotten paid at this low level of Golden Gate, this is the type of horse I do not want to bet but would hate to get beaten by. In the long run though I think it is in my best to leave this mare out and just use underneath perhaps.
2 CHARMING LASS- If the 5 or 3 do not fire, I want my money on this filly with Lopez aboard. Performed well after dropping to this level last out and was beaten by the 7 for place. A distant third choice for me here.
SYNTHETIC:5-3-2-7
Santa Anita R4
Hello, pay leg my old friend!!!!! We are here at Santa Anita and meet again!!!!!
6 ARCTIC ROLL- Prat aboard for the Lerner barn gives all the notice we need for this mare today. Lerner is 27% off the layoff, and this one looks poised and ready. Class relief here should help with the pace situation and allow her to finish strong.
5 KITTYHAWK LASS- Had some huge efforts in the past and then took a nice long layoff during the closure. Mike Puype does not have a great record off the layoff but this horse on paper should compete and Rispoli has been hot since resuming the meet and bringing his book to Santa Anita- especially on the turf.
8 BUYBACK- Tried turf at Golden Gate and did well for the Chew barn, and they come south here to keep on the turf. Van Dyke on the mount should be able to sit a good pressing trip and if this filly improves on 2nd turf attempt, could be dangerous.
1 SHANGHAI TRUFFLES- Seemed to have benefitted from the track closure layoff and
came back at Golden Gate very strong in allowance company. Cedillo on the mount here will need to save ground as it seems the horse needs a top effort to compete today.
My Play
(SLOP) $144
R1- 2-3-7-6
R2- 7-1
R3- 13-15-1
R4- 3-5-2
R5- 6-5
(TURF) $144
R1- 2-6-15
R2- 7-1
R3- 4-14-9
R4- 3-5-2
R5- 6-5
Stay tuned to the @thedailygallop as I will be updating the turf races/scratches as I need to on their Tweet!!!! Good luck everyone!!