Blog

Whitney

1. By My Standards- Ortiz/ Calhoun
   1. By My Standards is the horse breaking from the rail in this very small field for a Grade 1 quality race. Jose gets the mount over the midwest jockeys which is good but he isn’t classy enough in this field for me to put him on top. I think he has a slight shot but he will need to step up here. His run style is very key with how the track has been playing lately which might be the reason he wins as a slight upset here. 
2. Improbable- Ortiz Jr./ Baffert
   1. Improbable is coming out of the Gold Cup in June in which he won. The Gold Cup was a weaker race than this and Improbable won easily. Baffert ships in today without his west coast jockeys but gets Irad today again like he did in the Kentucky Derby. I think he wants a mile and a quarter so this is a little short for my liking. I think he can win and Irad is definitely a key factor in that today. He can win off these types of layoffs and shipping angles so none of that is a negative to me. 
3. Code of Honor- Velazquez/ McGuaghey III
   1. Code of Honor is my top choice in this field. I think the Met Mile was too short for his liking and I think a mile and an 8th is definitely perfect for him. Velazquez and Shug have been connected with this horse in every start. I think his closing run style might not be exactly ideal here but I think there is enough early pace here and a small field size is very key here. I will be using it on top. 
4. Mr. Buff- Alvarado/ Kimmel
   1. Mr. Buff is definitely going to be the speed of the speed here. Junior might steal it on the front end here and I would not be shocked. However, Junior needs to be aggressive and open it up early. The distance is my only issue because I think a flat mile is perfect for him. I will be looking elsewhere for a top pick but I think he will be a perfect horse underneath. 
5. Tom’s d’Etat- Rosario/ Stall Jr.
   1. Tom’s d’Etat is going to get a ton of play today and I think he might be vulnerable. Rosario is by far the best jockey currently at Saratoga and has been on fire lately. I think he is coming into this race in peak form but I think the race doesn’t necessarily look like a sure thing at 6/5. I will be using it in every multi race sequence and even singling in smaller tickets but I think Code of Honor is the play here. 

TOP PICKS

#3 Code of Honor

#5 Tom’s d’Etat

#2 Improbable

Personal Ensign

1. Abounding Joy- Ortiz/ Brisset
   1. Abounding Joy is definitely stepping up in class, especially coming from Prairie Meadows and it was a 50K stakes race. Santana Jr, obviously chose Midnight Bisou but Jose Ortiz gets the mount for the first time today which is an upgrade in jockey compared to every jockey that has ridden her in the past. She will need to upgrade in class and this race is not the race that it is easy for her to do. Will be looking elsewhere. 
2. Motion Emotion- Oritz Jr./ Batlas
   1. Motion Emotion is coming out of a solid 2nd in a Grade 2 at Churchill but Midnight Bisou still won by over 8 lengths. Irad gets the mount today which is an upgrade over Leparoux and Tyler Baze. She seems to be a hanger here but she has been facing tough competition lately. Irad will hopefully improve sitting an off the pace trip. I like her underneath but I don’t think she wins. 
3. Midnight Bisou- Santana Jr./ Asmussen
   1. Midnight Bisou should blow by this field down the stretch with ease. She came back from the Saudi Cup with a dominating performance at CD last time out. Santana Jr keeps the mount which is going to be a lot harder for that to happen due to the jockeys not being able to travel. Yet, Santana rides the Saratoga meet so he gets to ride Bisou again which is key. I think she towers over this field in class and consistency. As long as the speed early on isn’t too controlling, she should be able to win easily. 
4. Vexatious- Lezcano/ Sisterson
   1. Vexatious ran 2nd in the Ruffian last time out but stepped up in class today. She earned a great speed figure last time out and she seems to be improving amazingly with Lezcano aboard. I think she will be tough in here as an alternative to Midnight Bisou. She will be close to the lead early on and that will be impactful here. 
5. Bossy Bride- Alvarado/ Atras 
   1. Bossy Bride is in way over her head today/ She barely has beaten Starter Allowance company and her speed figures are on average about 20-25 less than the top tier quality in this field. Junior does get the mount here again but it’s more for the fact that he rode her last time out and wanted a mount in a Grade 1. I just don’t see her beating a horse in this field. 
6. Point of Honor- Castellano/ Weaver
   1. Point of Honor is the main contender to beat Midnight Bisou here. I think she is a hanger though but she is coming out of Grade 1 company and off of a career effort in the Ogden Phillips. I think the distance today is perfect for her but I think that is she can’t get by in prior races, she won’t today. I think it could be a Midnight Bisou over Point of Honor exacta cold today which won’t pay much. 

TOP PICKS

#3 Midnight Bisou

#4 Vexatious

#6 Point of Honor