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1/15/2021, Fair Grounds, Race 10, The Grade 3 Louisiana, 1 Mile and 1/16

This is one of three signature cards at the Fair Grounds in 2021, featuring multiple stakes races in many different divisions, which will progress through the end of the meet with the Louisiana Derby card in March. We’ve seen many talented horses on these cards over the past few years and this year is no exception. Two of the stakes are graded stakes today that I’ll be previewing, the Louisiana in the older male handicap division and the Lecomte, which is a Derby points race.

1. Grand Luwegee: He earned the right to try to tackle graded stakes foes after pulling the 52-1 shocker in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic last time out. He may have benefitted from the wet track that day, as his record on wet tracks is solid. The forecast is dry for the weekend, and this is a significant rise in class. Those factors make him hard to endorse in this spot.

2. Captivating Moon:  He’s cross entered in the Colonel E.R. Bradley stakes on the grass on this card.  He started his career more focused on grass races, hitting the board in several graded turf stakes. His connections have concentrated more on dirt racing over the past year, with his best finish being a second place finish to By My Standards in the New Orleans Classic last March. His form has tailed off a bit of late though, most recently finishing a dull fifth behind Maxfield in the Tenacious stakes here. I think his best chance is an exotics finish, but in his current form, that may be a stretch.

3. Silver Prospector: He took a swing in the Clark at the end of his three year old campaign last out, and was done in by drawing post 14. His form was up and down last year, but he was really good in the Southwest in the spring, and his two efforts in the fall at Churchill showed that he can compete at this level. I think he has a good shot to rebound off his last, which wasn’t an awful effort, and score here today.

4. Blackberry Wine: This is one of the more infamous horses in racing, as he had two big victories erased due to medication issues. He dominated a maiden field at Oaklawn in March that he was eligible for as a result of those disqualifications. One of his big efforts that was disqualified was a strong allowance win on this card last year. He clearly likes the track here and was a runaway winner in allowance company here last month. For me to take a short price on him, he’ll have to prove that he can run big races back to back, while stepping up in class, which is something he failed to do last year.

5. Indimaaj: This lightly raced six year old is coming off the two best races in his career, dominating optional claiming/allowance company at Tampa Bay Downs. He certainly is in good form, and he could be a late bloomer that is figuring things out. However, both wins at Tampa came in races that set up perfectly for his late running style, and I’m not sure this race will provide such an ideal scenario. He’ll also have to prove he can take his show on the road and that he’s not simply just a horse for course. He’s 12-1 on the morning line, and I might be willing to take a shot if his number floats up to around 20-1, but I think I’ll need to see him repeat his last effort elsewhere before endorsing him. 

6. Title Ready: While others are moving up in class, he’s one that is getting class relief, after running in two off the board finishes with Grade 1 company. Three starts back, he was a solid third in the Grade 2 Fayette, despite closing into a relatively slow pace for the distance that day. He looks like he fits at this level, and should be the best of the closers in this race

7. My Boy Jack: Like Captivating Moon, he is also cross-entered in the Colonel E.R. Bradley on the card. He was focused more on turf racing more recently, and most recently he was a dull 10^th in the Seabiscuit on the lawn at Del Mar. That was his first start in over a year, so he’s likely to move forward in this start. He was a decent third in the Louisiana Derby here in 2018, so a return to dirt isn’t out of the question. I think I’ll be siding with others though if he does show up here.

8. Wells Bayou: Last year’s Louisiana Derby winner makes his long awaited return in this spot. Speed is his weapon as he’ll plan to take them gate to wire. He was headed by Nadal in the Arkansas Derby last out and faded late. He’s been on the bench since May and this isn’t a super difficult spot to make his return. I just wonder how much punch he’ll have in the final furlong in this spot, especially if Blackberry Wine pushes him early. I’ll will cover with him, but I’ll be trying to beat him. 

9. Sonneman: He’s bred to be a two turn horse so it should be no surprise that his last three races, all at two turns, have been the best of his career. He fought gamely to be second to the more talented Maxfield last out in the Tenacious, while rallying into a slow pace that day. With Wells Bayou and Blackberry Wine in this field, he should get a more honest place to close in to. I think he has live shot here.

My Picks 3-6-9

1/15/2021, Fair Grounds, Race 13, The Grade 3 Lecomte, 3yo, 1 Mile and 1/16

10 Derby points go to the winner of the first in a series of three Derby Prep races in New Orleans. Steven Asmussen and Brad Cox train the two that will be vying for favoritism in this field of 11, which includes 2 horses cross-entered in an allowance race earlier on the card.

1. Midnight Bourbon: Steve Asmussen trains the second choice on the morning line, who was last seen finishing a distant third behind his stablemate, Jackie’s Warrior, in the Champagne. He was given a few months off and returns here, making his first start around two full turns. He was second two starts ago in the Iroquois when Corrales may have moved a little early on him, closing into a fast pace. He draws well for his return and he should have tactical early foot that should keep him right in the mix here. 

2. Arabian Prince: He’s been improving over his last three starts, most recently finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed, which shouldn’t hurt him here, as the pace on the front end should honest. He’s one who may appreciate the long stretch here to help with his late kick. 

3. Beep Beep: He won on debut at 7 Furlongs, earning a respectable speed figure in the process. Any horse that can win impressively at 7 Furlongs at first asking, can definitely run a bit. He’s cross-entered in an allowance race earlier on the card, which might be a better fit for him, as it’s asking a lot to win a Grade 3 race going two turns for the first time, off only one career start. 

4. Proxy: His speed figures nearly mirror that of Arabian Prince in his three starts, but the level of competition he has been facing has been significantly weaker. He already has two wins at the current meet, breaking his maiden and winning an allowance contest gate to wire both times. He showed in his debut that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead, but I think he’d prefer to be on the front end. I think others are going to keep him honest though and make this a big challenge for him.

5. Regular Guy: He broke his maiden in his fourth career try last out, going two turns for the first time on this course. He held on after being near a solid pace, but the final time for that race was slow and he was all out. He doesn’t strike me as the type that will be handle the rise in class here. 

6. Game Day Play: This three year old gelding won the Clever Trevor going seven furlongs last time out at Remington. He’s had a little time off and has been working well in the interim. His pedigree isn’t screaming two turns and his speed figures are a little light for this field. He is the only stakes winner in the field, and Calhoun has shown he can get his three year olds to step up in big spots. He’s not the craziest horse to put underneath here. 

7. Santa Cruiser: He had the misfortune of running into eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Essential Quality in his debut. He came within four plus lengths of him that day, and improved in his next two, braking his maiden most recently. He stretches out to two turns and faces winners for the first time here. The maiden fields he’s faced have been pretty salty, so I think there’s some class here. If he handles the distance, I think he could be upset minded. 

8. Red N Wild: Here’s another Remington Park invader, who was defeated by Game Day Play three starts ago in the Clever Trevor. He’s made gains in his last two starts, running a career top figure in the Springboard Mile, where he had a wide trip and faded late to hold third when Senor Buscador took off in the stretch. I think 20-1 is a bit high for this horse who has more experience than almost anyone else in the group. I think he might get bet down a bit, but he’s worth a shot if his odds stay at or above 20-1.

9. Manor House: This Upstart colt is the other horse cross entered in the 8^th race allowance race earlier on in the card. He decimated a maiden field at Laurel by 12+ lengths in his first career start last month. I’m not sure who he beat last time out, but regardless, it was done impressively. He’s earned a shot if Stidham wants to run him here, but I will side with others. 

10. Mandaloun: This well-bred, highly hyped, son of Into Mischief enters stakes company after winning his first two starts as an odds on favorite both times. Brad Cox and Florent Geroux have been winning with everything at this meet. He’s shown an ability to rate, so he should be able to navigate a good trip from an outward post. There’s likely to be little value, but he’s probably the most likely winner in this race. I’ll definitely be using him, and I’m putting him on top, but I’ll be using others as well. 

11. Dyn O Mite: He makes his eighth career in this spot, coming off of two straight wins at Golden Gate on the grass and here in an off the turf allowance. Despite several tries, he hasn’t really taken that big step forward you’d expect to see from a contender in a graded stakes race. 

My Picks: 10-1-7