1/17/21 Santa Anita Race 7, The G3 Astra Stakes, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/2
The reigning champion of this race, Ms Peintour is back to defend her crown, while facing eight other foes, many of who are unproven at this marathon distance. This is a wide open betting race and a worthy feature for the Sunday card.
1. Avenue de France: She won the first race of the meet last month, beating a respectable NW1X allowance field, while going 9 Furlongs. She’s now stretching out while moving into graded stakes company for the first time in her career. She continues to improve in each start, but this feels like a big ask for her.
2. Miss Addie Pray: She’s an interesting longshot in this field, as she’s exiting the Grade 1 American Oaks here on opening day. She was 50-1 that day and she ran 7th, 5+ lengths behind Duopoly. Her two best races races have come at 10 Furlongs and she looks like a horse that might do well in these longer distance races. Mike Smith keeps the mount on a filly that looks playable at 15-1.
3. Altea: 3-1 seems like an awfully short price on a horse that has never won a stakes race nor has gone further than 9 Furlongs in her career. She was seventh most recently in her local debut in the Robert Frankel Stakes here last month. She’s never tried going longer, despite having several opportunities to do so on the East coast over the past three years. I’m not certain she really wants the distance and I’m certainly not playing her at a short price.
4. Aunt Lubie: She’s one of two horses sent out by Jay Em Ess Stables in this race, the other being defending champion Ms Peintour. She’s likely to be the pacesetter in this race, as she’s been in her last few tries. She yielded the lead late in the her last two, and as she’s facing tougher today. I’ll look elsewhere.
5. Hermaphrodite: She was 5th, beaten less than two lengths in the same allowance race that Avenue de France and Aunt Lubie came out of. However, both of her last two races were probably shorter than she wanted to go. She’s been competitive in longer races overseas, so I think a race like this would be in her wheelhouse. The question remains if she’s good enough to beat this level of competition in the United States.
6. Lucky Peridot: She’s also entered in the Megahertz here tomorrow, which is probably a better fit for her, as it’s a shorter race with a smaller field for the same purse. She’s more of a miler and doesn’t strike me as a horse that wants to travel this far. If she opts for this race, I won’t be using her.
7. Carpe Vinum: She looked like she was progressing nicely last year before being thrown to the wolves in the G1 Del Mar Oaks in August. Since then, she’s put forth some dull tries, even while dropping into lesser company. She doesn’t seem to be in to form right now and she looks overmatched in this spot.
8. Quick: She’s run well in her two tries at 11 Furlongs on the grass, including a Game third in the Red Carpet at Del Mar in November. She’s shown she can be effective on the front end or coming from off the pace, so Rispoli will have options with her. She’s a logical play to build off her most recent effort and be right in the mix today.
9. Ms Peintour: She was the 13-1 upset winner of this race last year, but she’s only raced one time since. Her last at Del Mar was not good, and now she returns after five months on the shelf. She does like the distance and the course, but 12 Furlongs coming off the bench is a tall order. She was rounding into form when she won last year, but I suspect she’ll need this race before she starts firing on all cylinders again.
My Picks: 2-8-5