Good card today at the Spa, and a mandatory payout on the Pick 6, starting in race 5. Lets go to the quick comments:
1st race: 3-2-7
We Should Talk (3) won his last two and now returns at the same level, with new trainer Rob Atras, who hits at 33% repeating by the same price tag. Stoney Bennett (2)( drops sharply to this 12,500 level , and should be considered the main speed in here. He is 2 for 2 at the Spa. Deep Sea (7) won a battle three weeks ago in this same level, now will have to repeat against new rivals, but maybe the light bulb came on.
2nd race: 2-1-5
Its interesting that Javier Castellano doesn’t ride any of the Chad Brown horses, preferring to ride Modest (2), a first time starter from the barn of George Weaver, who hits at a 20% clip with first time starters. Works are more than adequate. Frankel at Ascot (1) should improve second time out and at a much better distance pedigree wise, but, in another intriguing twist, Jose Ortiz, who rode her in her debut, appears on a very well bred debut runner, Seasons (5). A daughter of Winter Memories, she is ready to fire right off the bat.
3rd race: 3-2-4
Wild Love (3) already has a win in this nine panels trip. Stakes are higher now, but she won like a good thing and more improvement is not out of the question. Will offer value here. Say Moi (2) was beaten just over two lengths by Spice is Nice, a very nice filly. Just by replicating that one she should be considered the favorite. Critical Value (4) has the best running lines in this bunch, the drop in class should serve her well and likes to win, with 3 wins in 5 lifetime starts. The distance is a bit of a question mark.
4th race: 7-6-5
Asmussen and Santana Jr. ream up again with another promising two year old filly, this time is Fouette (7). This daughter of Nyquist is very fast out of the gate and she can be long gone. Saratoga Commando (6) debuts for Chad Brown, who has been in a bit of a cold streak, but this one seems to be ready to fire first time out. Jose Ortiz rides. Rookery (5) will complete the selection, in a race in which you can not eliminate anyone as not having a reasonable chance in here.
5th race: 6-5-3
Start of the Pick 6, with a mandatory payout today. Bastet (6) should appreciate the added distance, and coming from running seven panels, she should be forwardly placed from the start. Windfall Profit (5) is experienced at the distance and now gets the services of Joel Rosario, who has been doing very good in combo with veteran trainer Shug Mc. Gaughey. Has just missed twice in a row. L’Indiscret (3) lost by just a half a length to my top pick, and with a hot pace up front, she can come flying late to pick up the pieces.
6th race: 9-8-1
Pop a Choc (9) won from the rail last time out, carving out very nice fractions and easily winning her dirt debut. Now gets a much more favorable draw and more improvement is very probable here, with Johnny V. repeating. Palio Flag (8) won first time out at Keeneland and should be better second time out for the combination of Asmussen and Santana Jr. Should be stalking the leaders and takes a lil cutback in distance, just like my top pick. Escape Fund (1) can be the longshot here. She won her debut at 34-1. Now you will not get that same price, but she seemed to be asking for more ground to run and she will get that today. Very difficult race, in which at least four more can win.
7th race: 5-4-9
Mo Me Mo My (5) drops to this $40,000 claim after batting up front with much better fillies. In this level, and now with Joel Rosario on her saddle, is the first one to include. Aunt Nadine (4) ran very well in her first race after being transferred from the Navarro barn. Now, second time with Asmussen, she is very dangerous. Stretchthestory (9) drips for a tag for the first time, and she even ran at a stakes race. The quality here is not the same, and just for that should be looked at. Another very difficult race to assess.
8th race: 8-7-1
City Man (8) ran very well in a Grade III last time out, and now drops to a restricted allowance race, in which we should give him the top pick honors. Joel Rosario has been his only jockey and gets back riding him. Buy Me Candy (7) figures to be the quickest of this group. His speed numbers are going in the right direction and if he is left alone on the lead, watch out. Venezuelan Hug (1) ran against Decorated Invader in his most recent, draw a line over that one. With any race before that, he is a player in here.
9th race: 6-1-4
You cant call Tenfold (6) the most consistent horse in the face of the earth. But those last two, against Graded winners Improbable and By My Standards, are definitely good enough to give him a great opportunity in this listed stakes. Endorsed (1) is coming from running in the Met Mile. Nothing even similar to that is penciled in at this race, so this is a considerable drop for him, and just for that, the 7/5 ML is justified. Cant leave him out. It’s All Relevant is one of the fastest here. He has won over this trip before, in a lesser group, but if he can have an easy lead, watch out for him.
10th race: 5-8-2
In such a bad group, there is nothing carved in stone. I will take a flyer with Boston Billy (5), a Charles Town shipper who was close to winning at the bullring last time out, in an open company event. In his first start at Laurel, he had his share of trouble. At 15-1, is a nice risk to take. Brunate (8) takes a bit of a cutback and his speed figures are gong slightly up, and that, in this group, is something not many of them can say. Always Funny (2) goes second off the layoff, I was expecting a better race from him, but with only two races lifetime, there is still some hope of improvement.