Happy Travers eve! Today is New York bred day at the Spa, all of the 11 races today are restricted to state breds including some pretty competitive blacktype stakes. Looks to be fast and firm with some great weather today, as always follow me on twitter for any updates and changes @cjfelts87. Good luck if you’re playing along!
Through 10 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 100-29-19-19 (29% win, 67% ITM)
Saratoga meet: Average ROI based off $2 win bet (52 races)- $2.25
$102 wagered, $114.50 won
Race 1 Msw 78k state bred fillies 2 yo, 5.5 furlongs turf
9-4-3
I thought #9 Single Verse made the most sense in the opener, she has a right to improve after her debut in the mud, now she switches to turf and gets 1st time lasix, last race she was second best to a runaway winner in Violent Point who went off as the favorite that race, and I like the fact that Tyler Gaffalione stays on too. #4 Stretchthestory would be my top first time starter (I’ll gladly play against the Chad Brown firster), Christophe Clement has a positive ROI with 2 year olds plus a positive ROI when he teams up with Junior Alvarado. #3 A Freud of Mama has some turf pedigree being by Freud, gets Luis Saez whose good enough on turf but may need a race or two. Gonna take a chance with the 9 but this race screams chaos.
Race 2 Msw 78k state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
7-6-4-1
#7 Daring Disguise is improving in form and stretches out for Linda Rice, adds blinkers which will help her early speed and there’s not a ton of pace in this race which means it very well could be won on the front end. #6 My Primo is a must use if you’re playing exactas, will be coming from off the pace as a stalker but should be running late and be able to grab a piece, another colt improving form wise. #4 Waynes Footsteps would be the next logical contender, another early speed horse with Luis Saez in the saddle who does well with those types, 2nd start now for trainer Brad Cox and second off the layoff. Wouldn’t be a bad idea to watch the board and play the higher price of the 4 or the 7.
Race 3 Fleet Indian Stakes 200k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
5-4-3-1
Seems like the type of race where you hit the all button but I ended up on #5 Behind the Couch. This is a lightly raced filly who has improved with every race, Jeremiah Englehart has a positive ROI in non graded stakes and she should have no problem running to today’s par. #4 Wait a Minute should not be discounted with the lesser known connections from Finger Lakes, probably won’t get much love on the toteboard but fits well in this group after winning in the New York Oaks. #3 Elegant Zip makes sense as a contender based on the pace scenario, not the best form of late but has a right to turn that around as a still developing 3 year old and should get a good trip from Manny Franco.
Race 4 Msw 78k state bred 2 yo, 5.5 furlongs
6-4-8
I landed on #6 Tapizearance here, brushed the gate and broke slow in his debut, was never involved and that was at 23-1 so expectations weren’t too high that day, and for what it’s worth the winner of that race, City Man, is entered in today’s Funny Cide. Now has experience under his belt plus he’s a first time gelding which could give him a wakeup call. #4 Lord Camden makes the most sense on paper, but I was skeptical to use him on top since connections are switching him to dirt after what was a decent enough effort on the turf. Grass seems more like his calling but should run close to par today. #8 Scilly Cay would be my top first time starter, Jose hops on for Linda Rice, sharp last work prepping for this race and the duo has a positive ROI when they team up this meet.
Race 5 Yaddo stakes 150k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 1/16 miles
1-6-3-9
#1 Fifty Five is a horse I actually picked in a previous Daily Gallop writeup and I’m sticking with her again as she seems pretty tough to beat in this spot, but don’t expect to get much value since she may very well go off under even money. She has been running very consistently at the same level with speed figures close to today’s par, was beaten only a half length in a grade 3 at Parx last out and there’s enough pace in this race to benefit her stalking running style. #6 Munchkin Money seems like a good candidate to finish in the exacta, can close with fast fractions and this presser type should be close to the lead all the way around. #3 Wegetsdammunys has been consistently hitting the board as of late and is improving in form since being claimed by Christophe Clement.
Race 6 Alw n1x state bred 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
10-7-4
Tough looking group in this turf sprint but I landed on #10 Bourbon Mission. 2nd off the claim for Joe Sharp who has a positive ROI with that move and has the best ability times of the group. Needs a clean trip drawing from the outside but Irad should give him the ride this gelding needs to get to the winners circle. #7 Constant Knight ships from Monmouth and is a logical candidate for the exacta, last race against open company was beaten second by a length at this distance and now faces state breds which should give him a figure boost. Would expect big odds on him but don’t discount him from your exotics. #4 Red Zinger is the next logical candidate in this sequence, competitive ability times and will be in the mix early for Junior Alvarado and Gary Contessa, would expect him to have enough to hit the board.
Race 7 Seeking the ante stakes 200k state bred fillies 2 yo, 6.5 furlongs
6-2-5-3
I landed on #6 My Italian Rabbi who I would expect to take a lot of money and be the favorite by post time. Comes off a win in the Stillwater with a speed figure that was above par for today’s level, Luis Saez stays on and she’ll be on the pace early. Looks very tough to beat in this spot. #2 Big Q has a good shot to finish in the exacta as a potential overlay, ran against tougher last time and was only beaten 6 lengths in the end after staying on the pace early, first time lasix could help this filly out as well. #5 Fierce Lady seems like the toughest challenger to My Italian Rabbi, battled with her all race long in the Stillwater but just didn’t have enough in the end, unfortunately for her I would expect a similar result but do like her as an ITM candidate.
Race 8 Funny Cide stakes 200k state bred 2 yo, 6.5 furlongs
5-8-3-2
#5 Opportunist could be a sneaky play at a potential price. Came from way off the pace (was 8 lengths back at the top of the lane) before being urged and winning by a length and 3 quarters, and that was at Gulfstream Park with a bug rider. Now ships up here and gets Tyler Gaffalione who is a somewhat regular rider for Mark Casse and adds weight from 113 to 122, normally I don’t pay attention to weight but horses who exit impressive performances and now are over 120 lbs. In sprints deserve extra attention. #8 Sky of Hook would be a logical exacta contender, won the Rick Violette (in the pouring rain) and Luis Saez stays aboard, not sure how strong that race was given the weather conditions but he’ll be on the pace early and in the mix late. #3 City Man steps up to face tougher after breaking his maiden in an off track race, Rosario stays aboard and has the ability to run close to today’s par.
Race 9 West Point stakes 150k state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
3-7-5
It’s Chad Browns world and we’re just living in it. He’ll send out #3 Offering Plan who is my top pick, has the best late closing speed of the bunch and raced against grade 3 company last time out, now drops into softer company, actually finished second in the West Point last year and needs a good trip but seems the one to beat in this bunch. #7 Voodoo Song will go out and set the early pace with Jose Ortiz, has the back class to compete here and adds blinkers so he’ll be running early and could hang on for a piece. #5 Mo Maverick is another early speed horse with Luis Saez aboard, figures to get a good trip and Saez is a good enough jock on these early speed types for him to hit the board.
Race 10 Albany stakes 250k state bred 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
2-9
#2 Bankit was being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby and actually ran some decent races in a couple of those prep races. Now he’s coming off a win in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes beating a lot of the same horses and today’s field and with his stalking running style he will benefit from what I foresee as a pace meltdown up front. Steve Asmussen teams up with his top jock in Ricardo Santana and he should be running as they turn for home. #9 Dopus Point could be a nice price play at 8-1 ML, improving in form and takes a step up in class but Joel Rosario knows this colt well enough as he has been consistently in the money and cycles back to put a potential career best figure. Don’t discount at a price.
Race 11 Mcl 40k state bred 3up, 1 3/16 miles turf
9-2-5-4