Welcome back to Santa Anita! We had a pretty strong day last week, managing to go profitable once again. More impressively, we got the longshot of the day in race 3 #5 Odysseus home, paying $21.20 to win! Let’s try to keep the winners coming!
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 43% (3/7 win, 7/7 ITM), $4.66 ROI per $2 win bet ($14 wagered, $32.60 returned)
Santa Anita Winter 2020: 46% (11/24 win, 22/24 ITM), $4.94 ROI per $2 win bet ($48 wagered, $118.62 returned)
Race 1: [F]Mdn 55k 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 3,6 / 4
We begin the day with a pretty tough race to get a handle on. None of these horses have shown to be particularly fond of winning, none less so than #4 Unicorn. This filly has managed to run in the money in all four of her turf starts, but she always seems to find one better. Even Prat was unable to will this one home, and I start to wonder if perhaps a mile is just a little too far for her. Everyone knows I am a huge Rispoli fan on the turf, but Unicorn is a tough horse to love at a short price given her knack for finishing second and third. It isn’t like she has been losing to bad horses, however, as Apache Princess, Maxim Rate, Desert Oasis, Carressa, and Bodhicitta are all highly promising fillies. Regardless, I’m inclined to go another direction. #6 Saving Sophie is the top pick. She has been running over dirt lately, and she also deserves some criticism for settling for second rather than winning. However, she initially debuted on grass, which tells me that Ellis originally had her pegged as a grass horse. She didn’t do much running in that debut, and has never raced on grass since. Ellis has great numbers with dirt to turf, with a strong $4.53 ROI the last 3 years. I think she is a much better horse than she showed back in May 2019, and Drayden retains the mount. #3 Miss Tokyo is another interesting player here. This Baltas trainee ran a couple respectable turf sprints to start her career, and Baltas horses normally aren’t fully cranked up for their debut efforts. She was hounded on a tough rail draw last out in her first try around 2 turns, but horses often improve second time going long, and she definitely appears to be the pace of this race. If she gets a comfortable lead, she could get bold on the front.
Race 2: [F][S]Mdn 55k 6 Furlongs
Picks: 5 / 2,4
#5 On Mars exits a promising debut effort where she was off a bit slow, rushed up inside to make the lead, held for about 5 furlongs before ultimately yielding late. She has every right to take a step forward from that effort, Cedillo remains on board, and with a cleaner break I expect her to set the pace and never look back. #2 Yellow Shirt is the most promising of the first-time starters, debuting for the always dangerous connections of Reddam Racing and Doug O’Neill. Longtime first call pilot Gutierrez takes the mount, hitting at 20% for O’Neill the last 60 days. This one has a lot of precocious, pure sprint win-early pedigree, as Square Eddie gets 17% debut winners. Have to wonder if this one might ultimately find her best game sprinting on turf. #4 Lucky Long Legs makes her first start for new trainer Phil D’Amato after failing to threaten last out. While Clifford Sise is a respectable trainer, D’Amato is one of the top west coast turf trainers, and all morning workout reports suggest this one has been working better lately than ever before. She held her own against recent allowance winner Desmond Doss, and at a moderate price she is interesting. #6 Rickie Nine Toes is another horse who always finds one better. While the speed figures make him strong in this field, those came against much weaker maiden claiming fields, and he appears to have serious stamina concerns. He is one I will let beat me moving up in class.
Race 3: [F]Alw 25000s 6 Furlongs
Picks: 5,2,6 // 4
Race 3 sets up as a very interesting affair from a pace perspective, as of the 6 horses entered, 3 of them are true need-the-lead type speedballs. Therefore, I’m going to prioritize horses who will be coming from off the pace. #5 Mongolian Humor is the classiest of this bunch, exiting a few graded stakes and high-level optional claiming races. This is a very crafty spot for Cerin to place this mare, as she is protected from claiming and is set up to score a decent purse against a field she has a massive class edge over. As long as the pace is as hot as it seems on paper and that none of the speed horses scratch, Mongolian Humor should get an excellent setup and blow by them all late. #2 Eternal Endeavour is the next closer I’ll be using. This horse clearly has had some soundness issues in the past, but she now makes her fourth start off the layoff, and Powell appears to finally have her healthy and fit. She nearly pulled off the upset against tougher last time out, and simply running a repeat of any of her last 3 races will make her awful tough in this spot. #6 Nomizar is not a true closer, but this filly could be the one who ultimately gets the best trip. Prat will have her behind the 3 dueling leaders, but she likely will be getting a few lengths head start on the other closers mentioned here due to her tactical speed. She gets an excellent outside draw, and she also brings some back class to the table, although mostly on turf. While I likely won’t go this deep on most tickets, the one speed horse I like best is actually the one at the longest price, #4 Square Peggy. I believe she is the quickest of the 3 speed horses, as it appears that the #1 Uno Trouble Maker has tailed off form lately and been unable to make the lead, albeit against tougher company. #3 Love a Honeybadger was able to set moderately slow fractions on an uncontested lead last out against a mediocre field, and now she leaves the Peter Miller barn to go to Koriner, who is only 4% first off the claim. Square Peggy is dynamite quick, and she makes her first start for savvy claiming trainer Knapp who hits at 21% first off the claim. Unlikely she takes them all the way, but she is an exotics player for sure.
Race 4: [F]Clm 32000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 2,4,6 / 5
Race 4 is a very tough race of evenly matched horses going one mile on the turf. The Santa Anita turf course has played differently lately, as it has been favoring speed for most of the meet. Last week, however, there were 0 wire to wire winners from 7 races, despite the rail being out, and most horses were winning from 2-4 lengths off the pace. I’m going to tentatively go with #2 Sugary as the top pick. She has had a lot of trouble staying on the race track, but her last 3 races have all been strong efforts. She was a good second place to Zuzanna two races back, and Zuzanna came back to win a graded stakes event over a promising field. She has the right run style that has been winning at SA lately, and it’s always good to see Drayden back on board. However, the one concern is she does seem to be a little better when second off the layoff. Her first races off the layoff aren’t exactly poor, but she seems to improve more in that second race. At 3/1 she is the pick, but if she floats down to the 9/5 range I’d look elsewhere. #4 Swing Thoughts gets some class relief here after finding mid-level allowance company too tough. Rispoli is riding an excellent 17% on turf this meet, and she is another who may sit the right trip. While she was beaten by a few of today’s foes 2-back, note that she ran that race for a new trainer on less than 1 week’s rest, so it’s fair to wonder if she was a bit fatigued that day. She should be fresher here, and as one of the few 4-year-old’s in the field she has a good chance to continue improving whereas others may have already reached their ceiling. #6 Seaside Dancer is one who you can’t let beat you, as she’s a remarkable 3 for 4 over the distance and 4 for 8 lifetime on turf. She loves Santa Anita, getting 2 wins from 3 starts here, and she makes her second start for red-hot Peter Miller. 9 furlongs seems to be a bit too far, so the cutback to a mile should hit her right between the eyes. The main question mark for her is how will she handle the likely early pace pressure from stretch-out runner #5 Swirling. If that one is unable to pressure Seaside Dancer early to keep her honest on the front, the others could all be competing for second.
Race 5: MC 20000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 10,3,9 / 12 / 11
Race 5 gives us a surprisingly large field for a group of maiden claimers, and this race feels absolutely ripe for a bomb. There are countless different ways to approach this race, and I find a number of price horses very appealing. I strongly recommend spreading deep in this race, as the favorites are drawn very wide and could lose a lot of ground into the turn. My top pick and longshot of the day is #10 Rough Ride. In a field full of uninspiring horses, I always like to give the new shooter a chance, similar to last week’s longshot winner Odysseus. David Hoffmans has excellent numbers with debuting horses in maiden claiming events, winning 24% with a $4.03 ROI, as well as being an overall 28% maiden claiming trainer. He is off to a strong start this meet, with a record of 8-2-2-1, indicating he spots his limited horses very realistically. This son of Into Mischief only sold for $12k at auction and is debuting at 5-years-old, so there are some red flags there, but this isn’t exactly a stellar field. Into Mischief progeny win at over 15% at first asking, making this one a live play at the 8/1 morning line. #3 Peedie has been running against better for his entire career, but he finally gets dropped to a reasonable level today. While the layoff is cause for concern, it’s encouraging Gutierrez stays on. He’s been working reasonably well in the mornings, and if he’s fit off the break he might get it done on the class drop today. #9 King Parker is another long shot I want to use, and he was very nearly the longshot of the day selection. His last race was very impressive, as he broke poorly, coming out last by over 10 lengths, but he was flying late to get up for third and ultimately promoted to second. It’s incredibly challenging to make up that kind of ground when only traveling 5.5 furlongs, and this horse is not one who is usually so far off the pace. Velez and Lewis have been hot together lately, so don’t sleep on King Parker at a generous price. #11 Time N Money & #12 Cryin’ Chuck are the two favorites, but neither one particularly interests me. Time N Money is coming off of a year layoff, has a wide draw to deal with, and gets a jockey who is 0/19 at the meet so far. Perhaps the layoff and gelding will wake him up, but he’s not one I’m too keen on. Cryin’ Chuck is more usable to me in this race, as his dirt effort wasn’t bad at all in debut, and he clearly didn’t care for the turf last out. He returns to his preferred surface and distance going out for by far the strongest connections in this field. He’s easily usable, but it’s just a question of how short of a price do you want to take.
Race 6: Clm 16000n3L 6 Furlongs
Picks: 4,6 / 3,2
While he let me down last time I picked him on top, I’m giving #4 Toothless Wonder another shot here today. He didn’t show much last out, but he’s since switched to the McCarthy barn and picks up one of the top jockeys in Prat. The January 18th workout saw him work with a Baffert pair and actually look much the best over those two when coming home strong. Perhaps the change of scenery finally woke him up? He doesn’t have tons of early speed, but he should be quick enough to get good position and make a move into the turn. #3 Whatsittoya ran a race 2 back at Del Mar that would beat this field easily, but he absolutely flopped last out at Turf Paradise against a weak bunch. Perhaps he needed one off the layoff or he didn’t care for the surface, but that’s a really poor effort to overlook as the morning line favorite today. It does him no favors that #5 Royal Song will be to his outside, who is the quickest of this bunch out of the gate and actually has a few quarter horse victories to his name. I don’t think he has any chance to stay on for 6 furlongs, but he can do enough to make life difficult for the favorite up front. #6 Rinse and Repeat has not had any luck finding the winner’s circle, but he’s repeatedly been running in races that are likely too tough for him. He finally gets a class drop here and makes his third start off the layoff, a 24% angle for Knapp. If the #1 Polar, #3 Whatsittoya, and #5 Royal Song all hook up and the pace gets too hot, this is the closer I’d want the most.
Race 7: Clm 50000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 9,4 //2,6
I will be the first to acknowledge that #4 Murad Khan is the horse to beat in this race today. He’s a very deserving favorite, and a repeat of his last would likely win this race. He was far from disgraced when losing to strong allowance type The Hunted, and Sellwood came back to win a Grade 3 last weekend. By no means am I against this gelding, but this race has drawn a pretty large field and there is a lot of speed in here. Murad Khan prefers to race midpack off the pace, so I don’t think the pace will really compromise his chances, but at his morning line of 6/5 it’s tough for me to be too excited about him. If you can get around this horse in the horizontal wagers, you will definitely be rewarded, so I’m taking a shot with #9 Battle of Memphis. I tend to believe that east coast turf horses are facing slightly better competition than their west coast brethren most of the time, so I’ve always been interested in this horse moving to California. He’s been facing a number of horses who have come back strong, including Ronald R, Overdue, and Wound Tight, all winners at the n2x allowance level, and it’s easy to forgive his last race when going a distance much too sharp for him. He gets dropped in for a tag for the first time, and Miyadi gets 25% winners when making such a move. Turf wizard Rispoli takes the mount, and he has the perfect off the pace run style that this race appears to be setting up for. #2 Truth Seeker is a bit of a wildcard in here, having never tried turf before, but this was a Winstar Farms & China Horse Club Into Mischief homebred who debuted in a maiden claiming 30,000 race. Clearly something was off, but he’s had some time away and now has a change of scenery moving out west and trying a new surface. His figures on dirt would make him competitive here, and if he can transfer that form to turf he could be a player at a generous price.
Race 8: MC 30000 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 4, 1 / 1,9,12
The finale for the day gives us a full field of 12 maidens going 6.5 furlongs on the main track. These low-level races are often won by horses on the lead, and 35% of the 6.5-furlong sprints at Santa Anita have been won in gate to wire fashion, slightly above the average. I’m going to take a shot with #4 Champs Success. While he has never run a complete race fast enough to win today, he has run opening fractions that are competitive. Perhaps maiden claiming $50k company was a bit too tough, but he finds a soft spot today. Edwin “all go” Maldonado is on board, and I’m expecting his aggressive style to put this one on the lead in a race that lacks a true front runner. Not sure if he will be able to hold them all off late, but I’ll take my chances that the hot Bonde barn (33%) can get him home on the class drop. #1 Taco Waco is the other likely speed in the field, but I’m not sure he’s truly fast enough to go with Champs Success. He should have a conditioning edge from his route races, and while Rispoli has been hot, he’s done most of his damage on turf races so far. The rail draw helps, and if he has enough speed to avoid getting shuffled back early, he should be right there late turning for home. #9 Golden Victory exits the same race as Waco Taco, and they actually ran a very similar race. Waco Taco got the best of him that day, but that was Golden Victory’s first start in nearly 3 months, and he may have just needed that race off the bench. Perhaps he can turn the tables today, as he was closing decently last out despite chasing a slow pace. #11 Arc Nation adds Lasix for Gallagher, a profitable 16% angle with this barn. He missed the break and was off slowly in his debut, where he just ran evenly and passed a few horses late. He catches a slightly softer bunch here, and he has a right to improve off of that educational debut. Last, #12 Overkoter has run 3 races that are all as good as the best race any horse in here has run to date. However, the one terrible race on his resume was the one time he raced here at Santa Anita. The track surface was much different back in October when they were slowing it down and making it heavy in preparation for Breeder’s Cup safety, and a lot of horses just weren’t handling the track during that meet. With the surface playing a bit more standard this meet, it’s fair to assume that one race was an outlier, and if he replicates or improves on any of his other 3 efforts, he should be very competitive at a great price. Note that the possible post-time favorite #10 Blazing Home is a very possible win contender; I just personally avoid Baltas first-time starters as a rule of thumb as he typically doesn’t have them ready at first asking (6% FTS with -$1.24 ROI, 4% debut maiden claiming with -$1.42 ROI).