Race 1: Clm $16k F&M 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #8 Auriga, in an uninspiring field where the two top choices are the horses that finished 2nd and 3rd by a decent margin in a race with the same conditions I’m going to look elsewhere for possibly a chance at a price or just a different angle. With this one you have a starter who hasn’t been out since December of 2010 when she broke the maiden at this level. The form shows 4 published breezes but what you’re really getting is the combination Jamie Ness/Trevor McCarthy connections. They’re teaming up for a 25% winning percentage since the start of last year and Ness is 21% with horses new to his barn. ML is 12-1, don’t think she’ll be that high but 6 or 8-1 seems reasonable.
2nd: #10 Artful Splatter, one of the aforementioned runners up in her last out, she was 4 lengths behind the winner in that event earning a field-best 68 Beyer. Distance is certainly a concern as she’s faded in each of her last 4 starts since moving to two turns. She should be among the early pace setters at least. Probably stays up for 2nd or 3rd.
3rd: #6 Sheza Handfull, long shot play here I’ll include in my exotics. Hugh McMahon is 40% with 1st time blinkers, a number you simply cannot ignore return $2.45 on every $2 bet. Connections back in February thought highly enough to try a stakes event at Oaklawn Park and she didn’t embarrass herself although she was 6th by 6 lengths. Her most recent turf try at 5 & ½F show a horse that wanted to run in the end, making up 9 lengths in the last couple furlongs.
Race 2: MdClm $25k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #6 Rising Perry, going chalk on top here, this one has a running line that screams more distance and has shown some impressive speed in previous attempts including the field’s best Beyer 77 back in May at Pim.
2nd: #5 Mystic Times, once highly thought of 3 year old that was purchased for $180k as a yearling was claimed by Jose Corrales from George Weaver for $16k last month when he was brought down to Laurel for a turf claimer that got washed off. Corrales 24% first off the claim including a gigantic $9.38 ROI on 17 tries.
3rd: #7 Striking It Lucky, second time starter, 1st time to the turf and first time blinkers. Has mixed in a couple nice drills at Del, expect improvement.
Race 3: MdClm $25k F&M 2 Year Olds 6F
1st: #6 Win Then Grin, absolutely cannot take my eyes off Dale Capuano’s numbers with debuting maiden claimers—5 for 9 so far with a $4.47 ROI. Since 2018 he and Avery Whisman are 29% together and Whisman still gets the 7lb apprentice allowance. I’m really looking for something with speed here. Some solid gate drills among the published works.
2nd: #5 Speed Talks, New York shipper for Gary Contessa has faced much tougher so far up at Saratoga. Draw a line through the turf try, the previous 53 Beyer is the field’s best. She’s been stalking very hot paces and should get something a little softer here.
3rd: #3 Olive’s Bumpa, presumably the post time favorite and for good reason—Claudio Gonzalez so good with 2 year old dirt trainees. The recent race was a marked improvement from her first two tries but upon closer consideration she got away with a really easy first quarter going 23 seconds flat. Final time of 1:05.20 is not pretty and to have been passed setting the early fractions there is not a good effort.
Race 4: Alw $42k 1M Turf
1st: #3 Back to Back, the addition of blinkers in the last out were a welcomed change for a horse that was languishing in the rear of some decent field. He got the lead in the stretch but surrender at the wire by a head going slightly longer than today’s 8F
2nd: #9 Speed Game, just a length and a quarter behind Posterity, the horse that just finished a length in front of Back to Back, so these two are pretty even. Only 1 for 9 over the Laurel sod.
3rd: #6 My Brothersledge, all chalk here, this one a reliable finisher that was just a half length behind Speed Game in the last out. Very close bunch.
Race 5: OC$25k F&M 5 & ½F Turf
1st: #6 Judi Blue Eyes, I’m really not a fan of horses that have just broken their maiden and are facing winners for the first time, but those one overpowered her rivals so convincingly running away to win by 6 after stalking some very fast fractions. The final time and the Beyer came back really solid. If you throw out the off-turf effort her resume is stellar. My only reservation is the jockey switch, as McCarthy comes off to ride Jane Cibelli’s shipper. Bullet drill last week confirms her desire here.
2nd: #11 Sexyama, Jerry O’Dwyer has probably been running this one in over her head and she’s faced stakes competition—including against boys once—3 times so far in 9 career tries. She has never faced optional claiming company and I suspect she will enjoy some class relief.
3rd: #4 Hendaya, don’t understand quite why McCarthy chose this one instead of Merryman’s Judge Blue Eyes, but he must have a reason and Jane Cibelli is always a threat. This one has tried turf and really didn’t like it. Perhaps they’re just hoping for a washed off event.
Race 6: [R] Alw $35k 1M Turf
1st: #9 Smokin Hot Factor, ridiculous field here of 8 or so solid contenders. Picking this one based on the most recent performance where he wired the field over this ground earning a 79 Beyer. Pattern is similar as he worked a strong 47 and 4 before that win and just worked the same 47 and 4 last weekend in preparation. The horse he beat, Redeemed Gentlemen is the #13 horse here and all he did was come back to win at Colonial earning an 83 Beyer at 40-1 closing into some very slow fractions from 6 lengths behind.
2nd: #7 Street Copper, absolutely cannot leave this one off your exotics, he’s been just missing the last two times in similar company. The effort going two turns was over yielding ground and undoubtedly that aided the closer that nipped him. Has been keeping the classiest company in the field going back to a couple opens takes attempt last year.
3rd: #13 Redeemed Gentleman, also entered back at Colonial tomorrow, have a feeling they’ll keep him down at the site of his most recent win, a definite contender if he comes back up to Laurel, owner of the field’s best 83 Beyer.
Also: 2-4-5-6-14
Race 7: [R] Alw $35k F&M 6F
1st: #5 Friend Me Charlie, soft landing spot here for the second time out after a really bang up debut effort. Love the bullet drill last out but am bewildered by the comment that she bled upon the big debut effort. Should improve a bit which will be enough to win this one.
2nd: #4 Last Love, best dirt Beyer in the field coming earlier this year. As of late the efforts haven’t been quite as strong. Blinkers on at age 4 strikes me as a Hail Mary, especially since she tried blinkers back in March and it was maybe her worst effort since the debut.
3rd: #1 Eifs, really like seeing the step ups in class to go along with the increasing Beyers. Notice the improvement in the figures since the switch to turf, don’t really understand the move back to the dirt here.
Race 8: Clm $16k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #10 Broker’s Reward, has stepped forward considerably since getting on the turf and this time tries with the blinkers for the first time. Surprisingly Vargas+Trombetta haven’t teamed up for a win yet this year but you know they’re two of the top at their respective vocations in Maryland. Last time this one was at this level on the turf was a winning effort over this lawn.
2nd: #11 Mr. Discretionary, can’t blame you if you put this ever-consistent one on top, Cibelli sends him down from Monmouth and retains services of Victor Carasco. Expect him to be on or close to the lead.
3rd: #5 Ten Eyck, two tries since coming down from New York including last time out winner at this condition during which the third place finisher has already come back to win.
Race 9: Clm $8k 6F
1st: #6 High Roller, 3 for his last 4 since dropping down to the single-digit claiming and 4 of his last 6 overall, bit of a shock he hasn’t been bought yet. Certainly likes the wet track but it should be dry today and that’s okay too.
2nd: #3 Bo Vuk, drops down to the lowest level of his career, last time he was even near this level was the three back effort when he was claimed for $12.5k and won by 7 albeit in a short field of 4.
3rd: #4 Harlan’s Hunch, your probable pace setter switches to dirt today. Maybe he loves it, but typically his speed doesn’t last for 6F.
Race 10: MdClm $25k Two Year Olds 6F
1st: #1 Kobe, back to dirt for this one moving down significantly in class after starting his career in New York with Gary Contessa. The addition of blinkers in his last allowed him to focus on running early and that should pay dividends for him here back on the dirt with the class relief. Probably will be claimed.
2nd: #2 Imagine Winning, Claudio Gonzalez trainees always a threat on the dirt and you have to like the most recent drill.
3rd: #3 Once in a Lifetime, hard to know what to make of the Timonium races, but second place closing at the end is a good attempt.