November 2
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Race 1: 3-7-8 (Dirt: 11-2-8)
Shifra Magician (3) takes a pretty big drop in class here, and ran 3rd against similar at this same trip in August. It looks like she’ll get a nice pace set-up here as well. Ashby is just 1/4 in the last 5 years with 50% droppers, with 2 in the money. Meddybemps (7) lost by a neck last out at this same level at Delaware after taking the same drop as the top pick does here. She’s been knocking heads with optional claimer types so she clearly fits here. Spicy Girl Red (8) is another that will be coming late, and she outfinished my place pick in July.
Race 2: 5-1-2
Strong connections for the firsters in here, but I’ll go with the experienced horse in Needs Supervision (5) who was slow to go in her debut but took the lead around the turn and fought gamely but was outfinished. Delacour sends out 2, and watch the board. In the last 5 years at Laurel, he’s on the board with a favorite 9/10 times, and a winner 5 of those, with a FTS that’s favored. In the last 2 years, he’s 8/15 winners (12/15 in the money) overall with firsters on the dirt here. I’ll go with Fashion Faux Pas (1), a Flatter filly, who has a gate bullet work followed up by a 5f bullet, both at Delaware. He legs up his top jock Lynch with this one. Vada (2) is a $300k purchase out of More than Ready for the Irish War Cry connections (Motion/Haskell). She has some siblings who won on turf, which is where this one’s future might be.
Race 3: 13-5-6 (Dirt: 12-6-11)
Another interesting maiden race. Crazy Magic (13) had the deadly outside post going a mile in his debut, and he’s subsequently gained additional 2-turn experience at the straight maiden level, taking the drop into claimers for the first time. Rice’s stats with firsters going long on the turf are not good (1/25 over the last 5 years, and 0/12 in the money with maiden claimers), but Overlord’s (5) pedigree is too much to pass up. Dam was a 3-time turf winner, sibling Blue Pigeon won on debut going long on turf eventually taking an allowance race in NY, sibling Fulmer was 2nd on debut and won next out on turf, and sibling War Canoe won at first asking on dirt and is a winner on turf. I think she’ll be better odds than stablemate Poppy Joe Rocks because Karamanos, her first-up rider, takes the call on that one.
Race 4: 1-9-11 (Dirt: 10-7-2)
I’m taking Tree Shaker (1) on top here because he gets the optimal post in this mile turf race while the other main contenders are stuck outside. He’s really improved in his last 4 turf starts including a win at the open claiming level 2 back. Both Buddy’s Tiz (9) and Intrepid Citizen (11) are contenders but the posts are just too much to overcome for me.
Race 5: 8-7-2
Visual Effect (8) drops to this lowest conditional claimer level from the Maryland Million. His last 2 at this track and distance are good enough, and gets a good post to stalk the speed. One Step Closer (7) is second off the claim for Magee, and should sit a similar trip to the top pick.
Race 6: 1-2-3
Hopefully easy as 1-2-3 in this one. Brahms Romp (1) is an improving 3 year old who gets back to 2 turns after his win 2-back at Delaware. He’s 7/11 in the exacta at Laurel and gets the advantageous inside post. High Society (2) takes a pretty significant drop to this bottom-level beaten claimer, and his 2-turn numbers are good enough to take this one. He’s only 2/35 lifetime though, and hasn’t won in a long time. Smart Two a T (3) was wide throughout and weakened in last, but if he can replicate his race 2-back he’s a major contender at a potential price.
Race 7: 3-6-8
I think Rare Eagle (3) can turn the tables on Dazzling Okie (8). They matched up on October 12th going 2 turns and Rare Eagle was too far back. I actually think the cutback favors him, as his last 3 times going this route at Laurel he’s won and he’s 11/13 in the exacta at the distance. He’ll be a much better price than his rival, who is only 2/17 lifetime at the distance. Gadget Man (6) takes a big drop from his latest, where he was 3 clear of 4th. He’s a 5-time winner at the distance.
Race 8: 9-7-10 (Dirt: 8-12-6)
This race is crying out for a closer, so I land on Kitty’s Right (9) who should also be a price. Her last turf sprint resulted in a career best Beyer and should get a great pace set-up. There are some pretty classy fillies and mares who figure to be disputing the pace here. She only has 3 career wins, but 2 of those came at this distance. Majestic Won’s (7) maiden breaker resulted in a huge Beyer and she was favored at a first-level allowance at Saratoga in her first start against winners. She gets back to turf and might be the speed of the speed. Hip Hop (10) hasn’t done much wrong in her last 4 on the grass and she doesn’t need the lead, so she can stalk the pacesetters here from the outside. Wide trip is a concern.
Race 9: 1-4-9 (Dirt: 7-12-13)
Eye on Berlin (1) was wide throughout at the optional claiming level last out, so she gets a tremendous post position switch and her race 3 back is good enough here. Bye Bye Blues (4) gets back to the turf after romping on a sloppy track last out, but her best Beyers are on the turf. She’s 6/7 in the exacta in her short career. Missworldvenezuela (9) takes a drop and figures to be outside the speed in here.
Race 10: 2-4-7
E Lizzy (2) presents an interesting case for the conditions here. Last out she was against non-winners of 2 for the period, though it was at the $4k level, and finished 2nd. Part of the condition for today is non-winners of 1 over the period. She’s done pretty well at this $5k beaten condition (2 seconds and a third in her last 3) and owns 9 wins (11/19 in the money at Laurel, and next most wins in the field is 5). Angelinthemorning (4) has cleared her lifetime conditions pretty quickly, including her latest where she won the N3L level at Delaware at today’s distance. Note that she broke her maiden at this track and distance in her first start for Claudio in August. I’m not sure what happened to Megstone (7) in her last, her first start for Farrior off the claim. He showed a lot of confidence in her there, stepping her up multiple levels after expiration of the jail period. If you ignore that one, she obviously fits, and if she’s anywhere near the morning line she presents pretty good value.