[This Thursday marks the penultimate edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index as there will be one final edition once post positions are drawn next week. At this point in time barring any injuries or unexpected defections the field of 20 three year olds that will break from the starting gates on May 4th at Churchill Downs has been set. As such only runners that are expected to race next Saturday will merit inclusion on the BUY List. In order to make a final determination as to which of these three year olds would be included, a number of factors were used (Brisnet and TimeForm speed figures/ratings, running style, potential pace scenario, recent works, historical statistics, etc) to help discern those runners that potentially stand the best chance of either winning the Derby or at the very least hitting the board at a solid price. Going forward, the SELL List portion of the Futures Index will no longer be included due to a conscious decision of my own. There are more than five runners that do not appear to have any chance whatsoever at finishing in the top four in the Derby and additionally, at this time of year it appears that many individuals are much more concerned with determining those runners that will actually hit the board rather than those runners that will not. However, there will be one new portion that will appear at the end of this feature and that is a compilation chart of all the necessary stats and figures used when determining which of these three year olds should warrant inclusion on the BUY List.
With regards to the various parts of that chart, first and foremost the pace for this year’s Derby is expected to be fairly slow (relatively speaking), possibly on par with the pace from the 2015 Derby. As such those horses possessing a Brisnet Running Style of either E or E/P that will allow them to be forwardly positioned stand to benefit the most from a moderate initial pace. Meanwhile those horses possessing a P or S running style appear to be at a disadvantage in this race. Next, when looking at the past performances of the last 19 Derby Winners dating back to 2000, two trends stood out. 15 of those 19 winners earned a 102 or higher Bris Speed Rating (BSR) in one of their three year old prep races and also earned a 95 or higher Brisnet Late Pace Figure in their nine furlong prep race. Next with regards to the fractional times for the final nine furlong prep race, there are two important stats to consider. Since 1990, 26 of the 29 Kentucky Derby Winners ran either their final furlong in 13.0 seconds or less or ran their final three furlongs in 38.0 seconds or less. Furthermore, 22 of those 29 winners did both. Additionally, since 1992, 25 of the 27 Derby Winners earned or better career best Beyer Speed Figures. Finally, with regards to the OptixPlot trends, there are several tendencies to consider. Horses depicted as circles or squares in Quadrant I and horses depicted as squares in Quadrant III are the most viable win contenders for the Derby. Horses depicted as circles in Quadrants II and IV have never won the Derby and circles found in Quadrant IV have never finished in the top four in the Derby. Horses depicted as squares in Quadrant IV are generally best used underneath as they have the highest second place finish percentage out of any type of runner in any quadrant. Finally, Late Pace in the Derby is key and as a result, horses depicted as squares generally have better finishing ability and are twice as likely when compared to circles to finish in the money. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and see which of these three year olds cracked the Top 5 on this week’s Futures Index BUY List.]
BUY
1 (1). Omaha Beach: (War Front-Seeking the Gold; Richard Mandella; Fox Hill Farms; 7-3-3-1; 1st in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and 1st in the Arkansas Derby (G1); 137.5 Kentucky Derby points)
If the overall purpose of the Futures Index is to identify those horses that have the potential to not only finish in the money in the Derby but also offer good value to their backers, individuals might be wondering as to why then Omaha Beach still remains on this list especially considering the fact that this son of War Front could potentially go off as the post time favorite on May 4th. Well there are a multitude of factors working in this colt’s favor as to why he still warrants the top position on this particular list and it all begins with the man that will be in the irons next Saturday: Mike Smith. Last week, Smith had an incredibly difficult decision to make in terms of which mount he wanted to accept for the Derby. He could have elected to spurn Mandella and Omaha Beach in favor of Bob Baffert and Roadster but ultimately he decided to remain onboard the colt with which he has already beaten two of Baffert’s triumvirate and this was a very encouraging decision to see. Additionally, Smith’s record as a jockey basically speaks for itself and Omaha Beach should benefit greatly once again by having one of if not the best jockeys in the United States aboard in the Derby. The potential pace scenario for this year’s Derby should also work in Omaha Beach’s favor. While Brisnet bestowed upon him an E8 running style rating, Omaha Beach is by no means a need to lead type runner that will be looking to set the initial fractions from the get go (that duty will most likely fall to rival Maximum Security). Omaha Beach has push-button speed and it is quite likely that Smith will be content to sit just off the early leaders, biding his time to strike for the front and then when that moment comes, make a bold move and seize command of the lead before relaxing slightly in preparation for a possible battle down the stretch with any rivals that may come calling.
Furthermore, when looking at the chart referencing all the pertinent statistics, Omaha Beach checks off all the boxes save for one; he has yet to crack triple digits with regards to his BSR. However, it should be noted that three other winners of the Derby did not earn a 102 or higher BSR but were awarded a 95 or higher Brisnet Late Pace figure for their final nine furlong prep effort. In addition, TimeForm did award this colt a 119 speed rating for his performance in the Arkansas Derby and that figure is amongst the highest earned by any of the contenders in this year’s field. Omaha Beach has gradually and continually improved his speed figures since he began racing last September and it does not appear that this colt has finished improving and maturing yet; thus another forward progression in the Derby is certainly possible. Finally, although the advance weather forecast for next Saturday has only suggested that there is the possibility of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, that could very well change a dozen times between now and then and as a result, there could potentially be a monsoon that envelops Louisville late next week (similar to what occurred last year). Omaha Beach is just one of the few runners in this field that has been tested and proven his prowess over a sloppy track and should the surface at Churchill Downs come up wet next Saturday, this colt appears to have a massive advantage over many of his rivals. All in all, Omaha Beach has the look of a budding Kentucky Derby winner and despite his possibly low odds on Saturday, his chances of winning the race must be respected at all costs.
2 (2). Tacitus: (Tapit-First Defence; Bill Mott; Juddmonte Farms Inc; 4-3-0-0; 1st in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and 1st in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2); 150 Kentucky Derby points)
The winner of the Wood Memorial has not won the Kentucky Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus did so back in 2000 and since then the best finish in the Derby by a winner of the Wood was in 2003 when Empire Maker (the grandsire of American Pharoah) ran second. Thus it would appear that history is not on the side of Tacitus going into this year’s Derby. But this son of Tapit is a very talented colt and his trainer, Bill Mott, is fairly exceptional. Not only does Tacitus possess the career co-highest BSR in the field (a 103 shared with Tax, which also happens to be the highest speed figure earned by a runner in any prep race this year) but Tacitus is also the only contender in the entire field to earn both a triple digit middle pace figure and a triple digit late pace figure for his effort in the Wood Memorial. This feat suggests that he can sustain a fast pace for a long time which translates well into him making a long sustained drive from the final turn and through the entire stretch run in the Derby. Furthermore, this colt has shown that he can handle large fields and adversity quite well. Tacitus squared off against ten other rivals in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial and bested them all both time; he also survived a rather rough and tumble start to the Wood Memorial and still was very game down the stretch. Even though Brisnet gave him a P2 running style designation, Tacitus has shown that his running abilities are much more versatile than a late-running pace stalker and that should work to his benefit next Saturday. Although this colt did not quite meet either of the time standards for his final nine furlong prep effort and his OptixPlot shape suggests he might be better off being used underneath, this colt’s two most recent efforts have shown how much untapped potential and talent there is that exists within him and as such he warrants an outsider’s chance at winning the Derby.
3 (4). Game Winner: (Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; Gary and Mary West; 6-4-2-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1); 85 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Now what exactly does one make of Game Winner’s two most recent prep efforts? In the Rebel, when this colt lost to Omaha Beach by a nose, it can be argued that perhaps he wasn’t fully cranked up yet and may have still been a bit rusty. But what was Game Winner’s excuse for being beaten half a length by stablemate Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby? The possibilities are numerous as perhaps it could have been the deep, slow track or the fact that Game Winner ran wide throughout the entire race or even a little strategery on the part of Baffert to ensure that both of his runners accrued enough points from that race to get solidly into the field for the Derby. Whatever the reason may be, this year as a whole has been quite puzzling in terms of assessing Game Winner’s true potential. The dominant colt that went undefeated in four starts as a two year old has yet to reappear and the weapons that he has at his disposal are not all that impressive as he does not have raw speed and his late-closing kick is fairly weak. However, there still is some upside to Game Winner. First and foremost, he is trained by Bob Baffert and the name alone speaks for itself. Second, this colt is a grinder and will keep coming after his rivals using his heart, his guts and his ability to sustain a drive for a long way. Third, if Rosario can finally give him a decent trip in the Derby and avoid running him wide throughout the entire trip, Game Winner’s figures are solid enough that he will likely be in contention late as the field turns for home. Finally, Baffert appears to be tightening the screws on Game Winner back at Santa Anita and out of the limelight at Churchill Downs as this colt recently turned in a very solid handily worked five furlong effort in 1:00.80. Game Winner simply may not be fast enough to beat all his rivals in this field next Saturday though he will most definitely give another good account of himself throughout the race and should be considered a major contender to hit the board underneath.
4 (NR). Spinoff: (Hard Spun-Gone West; Todd Pletcher; Wertheimer et Frere; 4-2-1-1; 2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 40 Kentucky Derby points)
There are just two colts in this entire field that check off every box (i.e. meet or exceed every standard set forth) in the chart listed at the end of this piece. One of them is Maximum Security while the other is this son of Hard Spun trained by Todd Pletcher. After recent review of all of the Derby preps, I’ve changed my opinion on the Louisiana Derby and am starting to view it as one of the more quality nine furlong prep races this year. Spinoff’s effort down at Fair Grounds was fairly impressive especially considering that he was bumped almost immediately after breaking from the gates, ran four wide throughout each turn, was eventually able to seize command of the lead in the upper stretch and unfortunately just could not hold off rival By My Standards in the deep stretch as he lost by three quarters of a length at the wire. The two runners up that he beat in that field, Sueno and Country House, both ran well enough in their final prep races that it gives the Louisiana Derby credibility. The 102 BSR that Spinoff earned for that effort is a rather solid figure and considering how this colt has slowly but steadily improved from a speed figure standpoint in each of his four career starts, it is to be expected that he can continue to move forward as he matures.
Spinoff does possess very good early speed but again like Omaha Beach, he is not a horse that needs to be on the lead (in fact he has never raced on the initial lead in any of his first four efforts) and it is much more likely that he will be content to sit back and employ his tactical speed with new jockey Manny Franco aboard, by pressing or stalking the pace being set forth by the likely frontrunner Maximum Security. There is some question as to whether or not Spinoff’s pedigree is ideally suited for handling ten furlongs although both his sire and damsire were successful stakes placed routers throughout their careers. Finally, even though Spinoff will be coming into the Derby following a six week layoff, Pletcher has been quite sharp over the past three years not only with runners making their third start off of a layoff (this will be Spinoff’s third start of 2019 following a lengthy layoff at the end of 2018) but also with runners making their first start following a layoff. Since his efforts in the Louisiana Derby, Spinoff has turned in three very professional four and five furlong breezes over the training track at Palm Beach Downs and by all accounts appears to be quite fit. Unlike in previous years, when the trainees for Pletcher were receiving a lot of hype and attention coming into the Derby, Spinoff and stablemate Cutting Humor appear to be flying under the radar. As such there exists the possibility that this colt could go unnoticed on the tote board and may go off at a big price which bodes well considering I view him as being a live longshot in this race that has the potential to score a major upset and win.
5 (5). Code of Honor: (Noble Mission-Dixie Union; Shug McGaughey; W.S. Farish; 5-2-1-1; 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1); 74 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
One of several runners rated as closers in this field by Brisnet, this son of Noble Mission is rather intriguing and after it was announced that John Velazquez would retain his mount, this colt’s chances of making a splash in the Derby significantly improved. When analyzing him it is important to note that his two major prep efforts this year really have not been all that impressive. Although he paired up 95 BSRs in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, he was green in both races and it nearly cost him the win in the former as he barely held off Bourbon War at the wire while it factored in to preventing him from running down Bodexpress in the latter (though the ridiculous pace that evolved for that race likely played a greater role in compromising his chances at finishing better). Hopefully in the five weeks off since the Florida Derby, Code of Honor will have begun to mature and show improved focus down the stretch otherwise he could very well be in trouble next Saturday; however, with a master conditioner like Shug administering his training, it’s quite likely that he will do everything in his power to correct those tendencies and have his charge in peak form coming into the Derby. Now although Code of Honor has demonstrated that his running style is fairly versatile, this still is a colt that can be impacted by a dawdling pace on the front end. Yet, it is quite unlikely that he will encounter a pace in the Derby that is as slow as what occurred early on in the Florida Derby. If a moderate initial pace ensues, then that would greatly be to Code of Honor’s benefit as the 115 Brisnet Late Pace figure he earned last time out is the second highest late pace figure for a nine furlong effort and is in itself a testament to the excellent late closing kick this colt possesses. Look for Velazquez to try and position Code of Honor in mid-pack and employ a stalking trip early on before moving up into contention in the final turn whereupon he will look to commence his closing kick and hopefully pass many if not all his rivals. It does not appear that Code of Honor is on the same level as some of the main contenders in this race an as such a win is likely out of the question; although, it is quite possible that Code of Honor may still be able to hit the board at a solid price.
NR (NR). Tax: (Arch-Giant’s Causeway; Danny Gargan; R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, et al; 5-2-2-1; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3) and 2nd in the Wood Memorial (G2); 52 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
If there’s one term that should be used to describe this son of Arch, it’s gritty or maybe it’s gutsy or even tenacious. Whatever the case may be, I really like Tax. The Danny Gargan trainee really has done nothing wrong in each and every one of his three nine furlong efforts since he was claimed from the barn of Ben Colebrook. Tax is the only runner in the entire field to have earned three triple digit BSRs and his pedigree suggests that a mile and quarter is easily obtainable especially given the amount of stamina present on the top and bottom. This colt has excellent high cruising speed and figures to be forwardly placed stalking the initial leader/s once again in the Derby. The natural progression for Tax after winning the Withers back in February would have been to return to race in the Gotham Stakes (G3) in March and then finish up the prep season at Aqueduct with a bout in the Wood Memorial. Instead Gargan elected to give his young charge a nearly two month breather and it nearly paid off as Tax was just unable to withstand the late run from rival Tacitus and had to settle for second in that race. However, that race likely proved to be a valuable learning experience for him as he was tested early on and forced to survive some severe bumping and knocking about (some of which he may have initiated himself) and that involvement could potentially give him an advantage over many of his other rivals in this field that have yet to experience that scenario. Although Tax’s final times for his Wood Memorial effort were not quite fast enough to fall within the accepted values for potential Derby winners, he does check off every other box on the pertinent stats chart and as such needs to be considered a legitimate contender in this race. While Tax has yet to return to the work tab since his most recent effort (look for Gargan to potentially work him out this weekend over the Belmont Park surface before shipping him to Churchill Downs early next week), Gargan has done quite well in the past with runners making their second start following a layoff. I am not entirely sure that this talented colt has enough ability to win this race but he certainly stands out as a runner that must be included in all exotic wagers in this race as he will likely go off at a very big price and will definitely reward those who back him provided he hits the board.
