[Welcome to the eleventh edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! Now this feature has been away for quite some time, well basically since the latter portion of March when this country was just beginning to shut down to try and get a handle on the coronavirus pandemic (unfortunately not much has changed in this country in the nearly four months since the last writing), so perhaps it might be a good idea to provide a brief refresher as to the purpose of this piece and what the particular rules are the govern the inclusion and exclusion of the various potential three year old Derby contenders. For those of you that might be unfamiliar with this piece or perhaps need a brief overview on why it was created, I have included the hyperlink for the first article in the 2020 series dating back to November 8th that contains all the pertinent information here: http://thedailygallop.net/the-kentucky-derby-futures-index-week-1-friday-nov-8-2019-by-joe-wulffe/ (or if the link doesn’t work, just search The Kentucky Derby Futures Index Week 1 on thedailygallop.net). Now as for the particular criteria that is being used for determining the eligibility of horses for making both the BUY and SELL Lists, it is fairly simple. A horse must have competed in a points awarding Kentucky Derby prep race since the beginning of this year, the horse must be in the current Top 20 on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (with so much chaos going on within the horse racing world at the moment and so much movement amongst the potential contenders for the Kentucky Derby, this seemed like the most logical means of limiting the pool of potential horses from which to select), and finally the horse cannot have accrued points but is currently injured or has been temporarily removed from the Derby for one reason or another by his or her connections as there is no telling if that horse would even be able to return to competition by September 5th. With that being said, I would like to briefly touch on all that has gone on since the last edition of this piece, focusing mainly on what prep races have been run, which preps remain, and also discuss which notable runners are no longer on the Derby trail.
Since the running of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 21st at Fair Grounds, which was won by Wells Bayou, there have been 10 points awarding Kentucky Derby prep races run here in the United States; however, there actually were no races run at all during the entire month of April. On March 28th, Barclay Tagg’s Tiz the Law won the nine furlong Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in particularly dominant fashion and picked up 100 Kentucky Derby points. Then on May 2nd, after some questionable decision making by the officials at Oaklawn Park, trainer Bob Baffert “managed to win” both divisions of the nine furlong Grade 1 Arkansas Derby with his colts Charlatan and Nadal and each of those runners accrued 100 Kentucky Derby points and did so rather convincingly. Following that, the Godolphin homebred Maxfield made his triumphant return after a rather long layoff (since last November) and ran down NY Traffic in deep stretch at Churchill Downs to pick up the win and 50 points in the newly promoted Derby prep, the eight and a half furlong Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes. After that John Shirreffs’ Honor A.P. was able to turn the tables on Bob Baffert’s Authentic and garner 100 Kentucky Derby points through winning the nine furlong Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Are you sitting down at the moment reading this? Good, because if you haven’t been paying attention to horse racing for the past two months, what comes next might shock you.
The next prep race to be run was the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes run on June 20th as a one turn nine furlong race. Now the reason for the strange configuration of this race can be traced directly back to Bob Baffert who argued that it was far too difficult to force the normal mile and a half distance of this classic race upon these lightly raced three year olds who had yet to even compete at a mile and a quarter. NYRA officials caved to Baffert’s suggestion that the race be cut back to a more suitable nine furlongs (while at the same time still managing to run the race in June, albeit a few weeks later than originally intended). Now the reduction in distance for the Belmont Stakes is somewhat ironic given that in the end, Baffert did not send any runners to compete in the race (but more on that later). Tiz the Law once again prevailed over a decent field and picked up 150 more points towards the Kentucky Derby which all but crowned him as the top contender heading into the Derby on its new date of September 5th. Following the Belmont Stakes, the nine furlong Grade 3 Ohio Derby (also a new points awarding prep race) was run on June 27th at Thistledown and Tom Amoss’ Dean Martini picked up 20 points against some questionable competition and threw his name onto the list of contenders (though he is not Triple Crown nominated and would need to be supplemented into the Kentucky Derby at a price in order to run). Despite losing his top two Kentucky Derby contenders in the prior weeks (more on that later), Bob Baffert’s stable still had plenty of capable three year olds in it and one of them, Uncle Chuck, captured the nine furlong Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby to earn 20 points as well whilst taking on a fairly weak field of four other rivals.
More recently, two additional prep races have been run within the last week. The first was the Grade 3 Indiana Derby run at nine furlongs at Indiana Grand. Long considered one of the Midwest summer derbies (along with the Ohio Derby), the Indiana Derby was newly elevated to Derby prep point awarding status this year and Brad Cox’s Shared Sense captured the race in remarkable flourish to give Godolphin another chance at making it into the Derby starting gates this year by earning 20 points (although Shared Sense is not Triple Crown nominated and would have to be late supplemented for a fee to get into the Derby field, in addition to likely needing to accrue more points). Finally on July 11th, at a new boutique summer meet at Keeneland to replace their canceled spring meet, Thomas Drury Jr’s Art Collector emerged triumphant in a thrilling edition of the nine furlong Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes, drawing level with and then easily clearing Kenny McPeek’s fantastic filly, Swiss Skydiver, to pick up 100 crucial Derby points in his first try versus graded stakes company on dirt.
This week, specifically this Thursday July 16th and on Saturday July 18th, there are two more points awarding Kentucky Derby prep races. The first is the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes to be run at nine furlongs at Saratoga. Normally this race is run in May at Belmont Park as a prep race for the Belmont Stakes but the timing did not quite work out and instead it was shuffled to opening day at Saratoga and as it is a new prep race, it will award points on the 50-20-10-5 scale to the top four finishers. In addition, there is the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes to be run at a distance of nine furlongs at Monmouth Park. Normally this race is just a Win and You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup with automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Classic for the winner; however, now it will also bestow Kentucky Derby points to the top four finishers on the 100-40-20-10 scale. Following these races, there are four more Kentucky Derby prep races to be run before September 5th. They are the Shared Belief Stakes (Listed) to be run at a mile at Del Mar on August 1st with 50 points available to the winner (though this race may be in jeopardy of not being run in light of recent events taking place this week at that track regarding its jockey colony and a massive outbreak of Covid-19 cases). Then on August 8th is the Midsummer Derby, the Grade 1 Travers Stakes run at ten furlongs (the first time any of these three year olds will have contested such a distance) at Saratoga and 100 Derby points will be on the line for the winner. The following day, August 9th, there is the Ellis Park Derby (Listed) to be run at nine furlongs with 50 points available to the winner. Finally, on August 15th there is the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes to be run at eight and a half furlongs at Monmouth Park with 20 points on the line for the winner.
Now for a bit more somber news. Since the publication of the last edition of this article, there have been several unfortunate injuries and other sordid issues that have befallen several of the potential top Kentucky Derby contenders. Let’s begin with a pair of Bob Baffert runners. Now you may recall that Charlatan and Nadal won their respective divisions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby back on May 2nd. Baffert had originally intended to campaign both Charlatan and Nadal in the Belmont Stakes following their victories; however, luck was not on their side and neither of these horses are on the Derby trail and neither will return to contest the Derby itself. Nadal sustained a freak injury on May 28th to one of his legs during training and although the surgery was successful, he will not ever race again and has since been retired (Spendthrift Farm is the most likely candidate for him to stand stud at). As for the rather ironically named Charlatan, he was removed from Belmont consideration due to some filling in one of his ankles that will prevent him from running possibly until the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in October or even later. Moreover, while it was well known that Charlatan was one of two Baffert runners that had tested positive for a banned substance following his win at Oaklawn in early May (the other was Baffert’s top filly Gamine), it was not until July 15th that it was announced that following a second sample coming back positive that the Oaklawn Park Board of Stewards had elected to suspend Baffert for 15 days and disqualify both Charlatan and Gamine from their wins and thus strip Charlatan of the 100 points that he had accrued in his Arkansas Derby victory and instead award those points to the runner-up, Steve Asmussen’s Basin. Unfortunately more bad news followed Nadal’s retirement as not only was it reported that Brad Cox’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby hero Wells Bayou had sustained a bone bruise and was off the Derby trail (a massive blow to that barn as he had lost Grade 2 Risen Star victor Mr. Monomoy earlier in the year) but also that Brendan Walsh’s Maxfield had suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture in his right front cannon bone during training and thus was no longer under Derby consideration. However, it appears that Maxfield’s injury is a bit less severe than that of Nadal and Godolphin has hopes that there is a chance for Maxfield to return to training late in the year and possibly make a comeback as a four year old. Thus it would be fair to say that this year’s Kentucky Derby field has been decimated as a number of the potential top contenders for the race will be unable to compete.
With that being said, it is now time to reveal this week’s BUY and SELL Lists. Normally, I would provide a brief discussion of these horses and explain why they merited inclusion on one list or the other but considering that these lists are likely to change before the week is over (and given that there are no prep races for the next two weeks after the Haskell), I thought it best just to publish these lists and then take the time next week to dive on in and explore these possible Derby contenders in greater detail at that point in time. Furthermore, while the number of horses that have really distinguished themselves thus far to merit inclusion on the BUY List is quite small and therefore I had a rather difficult time determining which three year olds should be on that list (hopefully these two prep races this weekend will alleviate my decision making process for next week). Thus without further ado, it is now time to reveal the BUY and SELL Lists for this week’s edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index.]
BUY
1. (Last Week: 1) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 6-5-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1), 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), 1st in Holy Bull Stakes (G3), 1st in the Florida Derby (G1), and 1st in the Belmont Stakes (G1); 272 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: 6) Honor A.P. (Honor Code-Wild Rush; John Shirreffs; C R K Stable LLC; 4-2-2-0; 2nd in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and 1st in the Santa Anita Derby (G1); 120 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Art Collector (Bernardini-Distorted Humor; Thomas Drury Jr; Bruce Lunsford; 8-4-1-0; 1st in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2); 100 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: 6th on the SELL List) NY Traffic (Cross Traffic-Graeme Hall; Saffie Joseph Jr; John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing, and Paul Braverman; 8-2-2-2; 3rd in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), 2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and 2nd in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3); 70 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Dr. Post (Quality Road-Hennessy; Todd Pletcher; St. Elias Stable; 4-2-1-0; 2nd in the Belmont Stakes (G1); 60 Kentucky Derby Points)
ON THE VERGE
Modernist (Uncle Mo-Bernardini; Bill Mott; Pam and Martin Wygod; 6-2-0-2; 1st in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and 7th in the Belmont Stakes (G1); 70 Kentucky Derby Points)
SELL
1. (Last Week: 2) Storm the Court (Court Vision-Tejano Run; Peter Eurton; Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock; 8-2-0-3; DNF in the Del Mar Futurity* (G1), 3rd in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 3rd in the San Felipe Stakes (G3), 6th in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and 3rd in the Ohio Derby (G3); 36 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: 1) King Guillermo (Uncle Mo-Dixieland Band; Juan Avila; Victoria’s Ranch; 5-2-1-1; 1st in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and 2nd in the Arkansas Derby (G1); 90 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: 3) Mischevious Alex (Into Mischief-Speightstown; John Servis; Cash is King LLC and LC Racing; 8-4-1-1; 1st in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 50 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: 5th on the BUY List) Ete Indien (Summer Front-Mizzen Mast; Patrick Biancone; Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable, Horse France America, D P Racing LLC, and Patrick L Biancone Racing LLC; 7-3-1-1; 2nd in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1); 74 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 3rd on the BUY List) Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; Spendthrift Farm LLC, MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, and Starlight Racing; 4-3-1-0; 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3), 1st in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1); 100 Kentucky Derby Points)