[Welcome to the eighth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. As I had mentioned in several of the previous editions of this feature, specifically those that began starting in early January, I had imposed an eligibility deadline of February 17th for any runner to be featured on either the BUY or SELL Lists in this feature. The deadline was created to ensure that these lists were as accurate and relevant as possible and that horses that may have flashed brilliance as two year olds but had yet to make their three year old debut were not simply taking up a valuable position on either list that could have gone to a more deserving contender (Sorry fans of Dennis’ Moment, Eight Rings and Maxfield). Furthermore, the exact requirements of the deadline (which specified that in order for a runner to be featured on either the BUY or SELL Lists, they had to have run in a points awarding Kentucky Derby prep race between January 1st and February 17th) would also serve as a good way of preventing runners that may have made brilliant 2020 debuts for certain trainers in races other than Kentucky Derby point awarding prep races (Charlatan and Nadal come to mind) from being included on these lists as there is no way of guaranteeing the connections will even attempt Derby prep races for those runners in the near future. Thus with those specifications in place, I believe that the current BUY and SELL Lists on this week’s Futures Index portray a fair representation of a number of horses that are amongst the best and worst contenders on this year’s Kentucky Derby Trail.
Since the publication of the last edition of this article, five more critical Kentucky Derby prep races have been run. They were the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes run at a mile and a sixteenth at Tampa Bay Downs on February 8th and won by Patrick Biancone’s Sole Volante. Then there were the First and Second Divisions of the nine furlong Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes run down at Fair Grounds in New Orleans on February 15th and won by Brad Cox’s Mr. Monomoy and Bill Mott’s Modernist respectively. Also on that same day there was the nine furlong El Camino Real Derby (Listed) run at Golden Gate Fields and this race which not only confers Derby points but also awards automatic entry into the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes in May was won by Bob Baffert’s Azul Coast. Finally, on February 17th, Steve Asmussen’s Silver Prospector captured the eight and a half furlong Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the last of the minor Kentucky Derby prep races (minor in regards to the amount of points available to the top four finishers). Several of the winners of these races impressed me enough to merit inclusion on this week’s BUY List, although to be honest the overall feeling that I was left with after witnessing these races is the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby was not amongst the winners or even some of the runners that hit the board in those races; in fact, several of these races, most notably the two divisions of this year’s Risen Star Stakes, were run under such conditions that will likely never be replicated in the Derby on May 2nd and thus it makes it somewhat difficult to be able to accurately assess the true potential of these runners going forward. However, that is not to say that the winners of these races or even some of the runners up are without talent; moreover, I am of the opinion that there are one or two runners that are currently on this week’s BUY List that have run quite well in their last or even couple of most recent races that have a fairly good chance at hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby.
Before I reveal the BUY, ON THE VERGE, and SELL Lists for this week, it might be important to address some of the key prep races coming up in the next few weeks. This weekend, on Saturday February 22nd, there are no Derby preps to be run but the following weekend there is the eight and a half furlong Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes held at Gulfstream Park. This race is of notable importance as it marks the 2020 debut of Dale Roman’s Dennis’ Moment and quite possibly the debut of Chad Brown’s Structor, the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf all the way back in the beginning of November at Santa Anita. The following weekend is the second of three Super Saturdays on this year’s Derby Trail. On that day there is the one turn mile of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes run at Aqueduct, in addition there is the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby run at eight and a half furlongs as well, and then finally there is the mile and a sixteenth Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes run at Santa Anita. Each of these four aforementioned prep races will convey 50-20-10-5 points to the top four finishers. I anticipate publishing one more edition of the Futures Index prior to the upcoming Super Saturday on March 7th as it appears that a number of the contenders featured on each of the three lists are likely to run on that day and their performances in those races could have a major impact with regards to their standings on those lists. But that’s enough of discussing the future, let’s get to the here and now; so without further ado, it’s time to reveal the BUY and SELL Lists for this week’s edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index.]
BUY
1. (Last Week: 1) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 4-3-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1), 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and 1st in Holy Bull Stakes (G3); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)
As I had mentioned in last week’s edition of this feature, I was fairly impressed by Tiz the Law’s effort in the Holy Bull Stakes which marked this colt’s 2020 debut. The 117 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance that day was a very solid figure and at the moment it ranks amongst the top five figures produced by three year olds in Derby prep races this year. The new found versatility in his running style was also a positive sign as Tiz the Law flashed some early speed out of the gates before ultimately being wrangled back by Manny Franco into his more customary stalking role. Going forward, I think this adaptability should serve him quite well. However, there are two major negatives surrounding this colt that need to be addressed.
The first deals with his immaturity. It was fairly apparent that Tiz the Law is still a young horse figuring things out as he was rather green during portions of that stretch run for the Holy Bull. With some more works underneath him and more race experience, theoretically he should continue to mature and improve and display a more professional attitude throughout the race. The problem is that his connections and trainer have elected to give him only one more prep race before potentially throwing him to the wolves in the Kentucky Derby. While a long layoff of eight weeks between his Holy Bull effort and the Grade 1 Florida Derby held at the end of March could do wonders for helping this colt mature, it also does not leave a lot of options available to them should something go wrong in that race and Tiz the Law finish outside of the top three. Moreover, attempting a test as grueling as the ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby with such a light foundation of just two races as a three year old underneath is not ideal, at least that’s my opinion of such a race regimen; although, there is some analysis that suggests that the third race in a form cycle usually ends up being the best effort for these young runners.
But none of this matters much if Barclay Tagg and Sackatoga Stable persist in keeping Manny Franco aboard their Derby contender. Franco has given this colt brutal rides the last two efforts and has been fortunate to have been bailed out by this colt’s supreme talent otherwise Tiz the Law’s last two starts could have been abject failures. A new more experienced rider that can establish a better rapport with this colt, hopefully during some of the morning workouts, is an avenue that the connections desperately need to explore if they want to continue to have serious aspirations about winning this year’s Kentucky Derby. Going forward be sure to watch Tiz the Law’s posted works (usually on XBTV) to see if he is exhibiting signs of progression as that should give a could indication as to whether or not he will be a legitimate contender in the upcoming Florida Derby.
2. (Last Week: 2) Enforceable (Tapit-Dixie Union; Mark Casse; John C. Oxley; 8-2-2-2; 3rd in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 4th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2),1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 2nd in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 33 Kentucky Derby Points)
Every year it seems that a talented son of Tapit pops up on everyone’s Derby radars as a legitimate contender to win the Derby following some impressive prep race efforts; this year is no different. Once again I was wowed by Enforceable’s latest performance and he didn’t even win the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes! The field that he was entered into did not project to have much early pace signed on which is usually a bad sign for deep grinding closers like this colt. Well as it turns out, the start of the race developed in such a way that I am still surprised at how Enforceable was able to get home down the stretch in the way that he did. Mr. Monomoy with Florent Geroux aboard ultimately took command of the race when none of the other expected early speed types broke well or seemed less than keen to dictate the early fractions and as a result the initial pace of the race was quite pedestrian. Enforceable actually broke a step slow and was towards the rear of the field early on but Julien Leparoux never panicked. He gradually began to guide his charge up through the field and despite being six wide at the quarter pole, he had Enforceable in a good position to begin his drive as the field hit the top of the long Fair Grounds stretch. Although he was not able to ultimately catch Mr. Monomoy, he did show good ability by willingly driving past Silver State in the waning moments of the race to secure second place.
Now the 107 TimeForm speed that he earned for that effort is quite low, yet this colt’s speed figures have improved in each of his past three starts which is always a good sign. Mark Casse has indicated that he will keep him down at Fair Grounds to run in the mile and three sixteenths long Grade 2 Louisiana Derby next month and given the affinity that this colt has show for that track, I see now reason why he should not run well once again on that day. Even though Enforceable is a closer he has effectively demonstrated that he is not particularly pace dependent and with a veteran jockey like Leparoux aboard he should continue to receive quality rides. Furthermore, the stretchout in distance should not bother this son of Tapit in the slightest and may even give him an advantage over some of his more distance compromised rivals. Be sure to pay attention to how Enforceable is working in the next several weeks as a bullet work or two should be a good indicator that this colt is ready to fire off a massive effort in his next prep start; although, he likely needs to only finish third or better to accrue enough points to make it into the starting gates at Churchill Downs.
3. (Last Week: 3) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 8-3-0-2; 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), 4th in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed), and 1st in the Southwest Stakes (G3); 21 Kentucky Derby Points)
Is Silver Prospector Steve Asmussen’s best chance at making it into the field for the Kentucky Derby? After what I witnessed in the Southwest Stakes, I would be inclined to say yes. In his second start of 2020 and trying to rebound after a disappointing showing in the Smarty Jones Stakes, Silver Prospector could not have run a better race if he tried. This son of the remarkable Declaration of War broke well from the gates, was guided towards the rail and taken back to mid-pack by Ricardo Santana Jr and from there commenced a ground saving trip during the early stages of the race whilst stalking the fast initial fractions being set forth by Florent Geroux aboard Wells Bayou. Turning for home, Santana tipped Silver Prospector to the outside of the field and thereupon made a bid to seize the lead from Wells Bayou. Silver Prospector took command with authority and managed to finish a length ahead of Wells Bayou at the wire. The 119 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts is an absolutely massive number, a 21 point increase from his Smarty Jones figure, and 16 points higher than the number he posted after capturing the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in the slop last November.
Going forward, the connections and Asmussen have indicated that they would like to keep Silver Prospector at Oaklawn Park to continue prepping for the Derby. They suggested that the Grade 2 eight and a half furlong Rebel Stakes run on March 14th would be this colt’s next start and if all goes well after that then he would run in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 11th. There is a bit of concern, at least from my point of view, with regards to the amount of time off between these races as Silver Prospector has a layoff of 55 days between the KYJC and the Smarty Jones, then a layoff of 24 days between the Smarty Jones and the Southwest. It is just 26 days until his next start in the Rebel and then it would only be 27 days after that that he would run in the Arkansas Derby and then if everything worked out all right, it would be just 21 days until the Kentucky Derby itself. My concern is that this might be a lot of racing to force upon a colt that has already made eight starts thus far in his career and thus perhaps he might be worn out by the time May 2nd rolls around. Furthermore, it appears that there was some tail-swishing or raising going on during Silver Prospector’s stretch run in the Southwest. Usually this is a negative sign as it indicates an irritated horse but more often it occurs when the runner is being passed by rivals or has to work really hard to gut out a win. Perhaps it is nothing but maybe this is something to at least keep in the back of your mind when observing Silver Prospector in the Rebel Stakes, especially if he is faced with more adversity. As an ending note, I will say that I really like this colt’s chances of making it into the Derby as he realistically needs to just hit the board in each of his next two starts to qualify with enough points for the Derby (a win in either race automatically guarantees him enough points for entry).
4. (Last Week: 4) Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile-Pomeroy; Bob Baffert; Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 20 Kentucky Derby Points)
Bob Baffert’s Thousand Words will make his next start on March 7 in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and truthfully that start couldn’t come any sooner. This colt’s stock took a bit of a hit last Saturday after one of the competitors that he struggled to put away last December in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Anneau d’Or, failed to show up in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes. Given how close the margin of victory was in that race for Thousand Words coupled with his victory of less than a length in the Robert B. Lewis, I’m still at a loss as to how this colt currently represents the best chance for any of the numerous talented three year olds in Baffert’s barn to make the field for the Derby. Now it is true that Thousand Words has been able to dig deep in each of those last two efforts and pull out wins but one does have to wonder how many more times that can happen and what might occur when the level of competition steps up significantly.
In deference to Thousand Words, his three most recent TimeForm speed ratings are amongst the best of any contenders currently on the Derby trail and his tactical speed and stalking ability continue to make him a threat in each of his starts. Furthermore, his most recent work of five furlongs over the surface at Santa Anita suggests that Baffert is getting him cranked up for what will likely be his toughest test yet: namely facing off against his stablemate Authentic in the San Felipe in a few weeks time. Is Thousand Words the best three year old colt in Baffert’s barn right now? With the recent emergence of Nadal and Charlatan, I’m leaning towards answering no but as those two have yet to be tested in a Derby prep race, and considering Authentic has yet to stretch out beyond a mile, Thousand Word holds the title…for now, but that all could change next month.
5. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Mr. Monomoy (Palace Malice-Henny Hughes; Brad Cox; Madaket Stables LLC, Michael Dubb and Doheny Racing Stable; 5-2-1-1; 3rd in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and 1st in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 52 Kentucky Derby Points)
I’ll be the first to admit it, I was dubious of Mr. Monomoy’s abilities going into each of his last two starts. Prior to his Lecomte effort in which he ran a decent third, I questioned as to whether or not his pedigree would allow him to handle the stretchout to a mile and a sixteenth. Following that race, my opinion of him increased somewhat but not enough to consider him as a legitimate threat to win the Risen Star Stakes (I also still had some doubts as to whether or not he could continue stretching out in distance, regardless of the fact that his half-sister Monomoy Girl could handle nine furlongs with great ease). After Mr. Monomoy’s gate to wire victory in the 1st Division of the Risen Star, I’ve begun to buy into this colt. Yes, the 110 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that performance is fairly paltry when compared to some of the other figures that his rivals are putting forth right now and yes, he got away with setting a fairly easy pace early on in a race where the other projected early speed types either failed to break well or had no intentions of contesting the lead with Geroux and his mount. While such a scenario is unlikely to unfold in Mr. Monomoy’s favor again, the incredibly versatile running style that he has displayed thus far could be a major asset that may give him an advantage over many other contenders in the Derby.
Speaking of the Kentucky Derby, it sounds like both the ownership group and Brad Cox are over the moon that this colt has already qualified for the Derby. Thus that would likely be why they’re electing to give him some extra time off and instead of attempting the nine and a half furlongs of the Louisiana Derby in March, they’re content to wait until the nine furlong challenge of the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4th. I would highly recommend keeping an eye on this colt going forward (definitely watch how he’s performing in the morning workouts) as there is a chance he can make some noise on Derby Day. Finally, it doesn’t hurt that Geroux has an outstanding relationship going on right now not only with Cox but also with Mr. Monomoy as that intangible effect, while hard to measure, can be a major difference maker in many of the challenging tests that these three year olds face.
ON THE VERGE:
Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D Fielding, and Golconda Stables; 2-2-0-0, 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
If it seemed like I was wavering in my support for Authentic’s stablemate, Thousand Words, let me make one thing clear: the only reason this colt is even on this list is due to the fact that his trainer is Bob Baffert. I’m not in love with this colt’s pedigree at all, as it is filled with sprinter’s speed and while he might be able to get away with routing eight and a half furlongs, any stretchout beyond that I believe is going to be a bridge too far. His two most recent works going six and four furlongs respectively over the Santa Anita main track have actually been fairly sharp, thus it would appear that Baffert is tightening the screws in order to get his charge prepped for his next effort on March 7th in the San Felipe. If all things go well, I would expect Baffert to run him in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in early April, otherwise he could very well be shipped off to Sunland or Oaklawn to run. Look for Authentic to encounter a stern test next time out as Thousand Words is not going to make it easy for him to win that race, given how much grit and determination the latter has displayed in each of his last two prep efforts.
Modernist (Uncle Mo-Bernardini; Bill Mott; Pam and Martin Wygod; 4-2-0-1; 1st in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 50 Kentucky Derby Points
We’re starting to get to the bottom of the barrel here in terms of qualified three year olds that are even eligible to make any of these lists. Thus, that means I do have to recognize Modernist’s victory in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star last Saturday even though that race was arguably one of the weakest if not the weakest prep race run this month. Modernist came into that race as the only runner in the field having an experience at nine furlongs and in the end it certainly showed. He pressed the initial crawling fractions being set forth by rival Ny Traffic whilst along the rail under a tight hold by Junior Alvarado before seizing command of the lead in the final turn and then eventually shaking clear of that rival to prevail by a length at the wire following a solid driving effort. The 105 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his stakes debut is a nice figure but pales in comparison to some of the other times being set forth in this year’s prep races. The connections have indicated that they would like to race Modernist again in the Louisiana Derby next month, despite theoretically having enough points to qualify for the Derby. Still I’m not buying into this horse and unless he demonstrates that he can take on and beat more talented rivals on the square next time out then he’ll quickly be off this list.
Silver State (Hard Spun-Empire Maker; Steve Asmussen; Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC; 4-1-2-1; 2nd in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and 3rd in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 14 Kentucky Derby Points)
I debated for quite a long time about the inclusion of this Asmussen trainee and ultimately elected to mention him in this spot. Let’s put it this way, Silver State was able to endure a brutal trip and ride by Santana in the Lecomte and still finish second as the quality of that field was not all that great, aside from the top three finishers. Last time out this colt, who had a history of breaking poorly or encountering trouble after exiting the gates, actually broke quite well and was guided to an ideal position in mid-pack by Santana in the 1st Division of the Risen Star. Silver State managed to sit a good trip early on, was asked to go at the 3/8ths pole by Santana and responded quickly which allowed him to get the jump this time on Enforceable and thereupon commenced a drive down the stretch. This colt should have finished second in that race but was just simply run down by a better closer in Enforceable. It did not appear that he was struggling for the wire as he ran down that long stretch at Fair Grounds; rather, it actually appeared that he was skipping down the track and that is a promising sign. It suggests that Silver State should continue to run well as he stretches out in distance, especially considering that the distance of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is now nine and a half furlongs. The 106 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that effort is an improvement off of his Lecomte number but it still is quite low and he would need to improve significantly in order to truly contend with many of more talented rivals currently on the Derby trail. The only downside for this colt is that he is going to need to run at least second in that race in order to accrue enough points to qualify for the Derby and that will have to come against what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive fields in Fair Ground’s history. Thus keep an eye on how this colt is working in the morning and make sure to give him some major consideration if the field for that race has plenty of early pace signed on which should benefit his mid-pack running style.
SELL
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 1) Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 6-1-2-0; 2nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 5th in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and 6th in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)
To put things very simply, I believe that it is time for the connections to end their Derby aspirations for Scabbard. This colt has not won a race since breaking his maiden at first asking last summer and he has failed to hit the board in each of his last three attempts in graded stakes races. Last time out, Scabbard was towards the rear of the field early on in the first division of the Risen Star and after the race commenced really did not do much as he ended up finishing a non-threatening sixth in that race. It has been postulated by others that given Scabbard’s pedigree (especially that of his dam’s side) that perhaps going forward he would be best suited racing at a mile or one turn sprint races. Whatever the case may be, further stretch outs in distance do not appear to suit this son of More Than Ready and it would not surprise me at all to see the connections elect to give him some time off before contemplating his next race.
2. (Last Week: 2) Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 7-2-1-1; 2nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st in Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed), 3rd in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed), and 4th in the Southwest Stakes (G3); 13 Kentucky Derby Points)
Shoplifted’s most recent effort in Monday’s Southwest Stakes was at the very least disappointing and most certainly was a head-scratcher as well. In a race that should of and in fact did set up very well for his closing running style, this son of Into Mischief really did not run as well as he could have. Shoplifted was well behind most of the field early on, he did encounter some traffic issues during the second turn (which may have blunted his effectiveness a little bit), then was wisely tipped out into the clear turning for home from whence he commenced his drive only to wind up running evenly and finishing a well-beaten fourth, nearly nine lengths behind his victorious stablemate Silver Prospector. Well the 108 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts was indeed a career best, I’m having a hard time finding any silver lining in the performance by this colt. Monday’s race marked the third attempt in his career at a distance of a mile and a sixteenth and for the third straight time, Shoplifted finished off the board. He failed to better his third place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes three and a half weeks prior (which was run at a mile over the slop at Oaklawn) and thus it might be time for the connections and Asmussen to begin considering that perhaps this colt really does not want or is not suited for racing at distances beyond eight furlongs. I simply do not know at this time but I can say with great certainty that it would take an absolutely monster effort from Shoplifted in his next prep race (if there even is a next one) to change my current opinion of this colt.
3. (Last Week: 4) Anneau d’Or (Medaglia d’Oro-Tapit; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 4-1-2-0; 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 2nd in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G2), and 9th in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
Amongst the list of worst performances by horses making their three year old debuts this year, Anneau d’Or’s effort in the second division of the Risen Star Stakes (arguably the weaker of the two divisions) last Saturday has to be at or at the very least near the top. It’s still somewhat unclear as to why the connections targeted that race for their colt’s 2020 debut considering that Anneau d’Or is based at Golden Gate Fields, had been training there incredibly well, and even had a prep race in the El Camino Real Derby being run there on February 15th that not only awarded Kentucky Derby points (albeit on a lesser scale than either of the Risen Star divisions) but also bestowed guaranteed entry into the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes to the winner! Perhaps the ownership group was overcome with Derby fever or wanted a challenge for their colt; whatever, the case may have been, it simply did not pay off at all. Anneau d’Or was the heavy favorite in his division of the Risen Star and he quite simply did not fulfill the expectations of his backers that day. His trip in that race was pretty brutal as well: he broke tardily and ended up near the rear of the field, he bumped into another rival early on, he was in tight amongst other horses and was forced to drop even further back, he went five wide into the first turn and then was settled on the outside of the field before having to be urged along on the backstretch, and finally he went extremely wide through the final turn and simply gave up once he hit the top of the stretch. This was not an encouraging performance from a horse that had finished second in his prior two Grade 1 efforts and I’m somewhat surprised that the connections are still pushing forward with their plans to run him in the Santa Anita Derby in April. Anneau d’Or is going to have to finish at least second in that race in order to accrue enough points to make it into the Derby field and I’m simply not convinced that he is capable of such an effort. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race in which he was narrowly defeated by Storm the Court has since come back as being the weakest prep race thus far and his effort in the Los Alamitos Futurity was not all that great either. Perhaps I’m not giving this colt enough benefit of doubt as there were several factors that could be taken into account for his poor performance in the Risen Star, but I’m willing to take a stand against Anneau d’Or at the moment and wait for him to prove me wrong later.
4. (Last Week: 5) Max Player (Honor Code-Not For Love; Linda Rice; George E. Hall; 3-2-1-0; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
Is Max Player a legitimate threat going forward or did he merely take advantage of slow fractions in the Withers, an ideal trip and pace setup and then catching a flagging longtime leader in the deep stretch? My opinion of this horse leans towards the latter. Max Player really did not face all that much in this year’s edition of the Withers and when he finally drew alongside Shotski, that rival did not put up any fight considering how much he had been softened up earlier in the race having to deal with multiple other horses putting pressure on him throughout the race. The 114 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance is a massive number considering that this was just his third career start and his first against graded stakes company. I would not be at all surprised to see him bounce next time out given the 22 point jump in speed ratings. Furthermore, the connections are giving this colt a ridiculously long amount of time off before his next start as they have indicated that he will not race again until the nine furlong Grade 2 Wood Memorial in April. That is an absolutely insane amount of time off to give to such a lightly raced colt and with such little foundation underneath him, I doubt he will fare well in the Derby, if he even makes it into the field for that race.
5. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Independence Hall (Constitution-Cape Town; Michael Trombetta; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, Kathleen and Robert Verratti; 4-3-1-0; 1st in the Nashua Stakes* (G3), 1st in the Jerome Stakes (Listed), and 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3); 14 Kentucky Derby Points)
Some people may be questioning as to why Independence Hall is being included on this list as his effort last time out in the Sam F. Davis Stakes was not all that bad (though on the other hand it wasn’t a great performance either). This colt broke readily from the gates to seize command of the lead (and a ground saving rail trip) early on before being taken back by Jose Ortiz to take up a stalking position just off of the new pacesetters going into the first turn. As the field turned into the final turn, Ortiz prompted his mount to begin moving up whilst three deep before tipping him inwards back towards the rail before entering the top of the stretch. Independence Hall briefly gained command of the lead and showed some slight resistance as rival Sole Volante came calling in the deep stretch but ultimately he was unable to hold off that rival and had to finish second. This effort did mark Independence Hall’s first attempt at not only a two turn route but also at a distance beyond a mile. The 111 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts was not a terrible number as it marked a step forward in the right direction, but it is still a far cry from that scorching 122 figure that he earned for his performance in the Nashua last November. I actually have no issues with how Ortiz elected to rate him in that race and my overall impression of the trip that he received is fairly positive. My only concern is that when Independence Hall was in the clear and on the lead at the top of the stretch, he really had no response for Sole Volante and didn’t put up much of a fight when that rival drew alongside and then moved past him. Perhaps this colt has some distance limitations or maybe he was just gassed towards the end of his first two turn route attempt, I honestly don’t know. One thing to note though is that the pace up front in that race was fairly brisk and the two pace-setters that Independence Hall was chasing ended up finishing last and second to last, so that should be taken into account when considering his performance from that day. At the moment it is unclear as to where the connections are considering racing this colt next but do keep in mind that he is based at Tampa Bay Downs and considering that the Tampa Bay Derby next month is run at a mile and a sixteenth that would appear to be a logical landing spot for this colt. Just be sure to keep an eye on him for when he starts working (as he has yet to post a work since before his Sam F. Davis try) as that should give a good indication as to how seriously the connections are considering the Tampa Bay Derby for his next start.