It’s El Camino Real Derby day! For the regular folks reading on this Saturday you might notice I’m not Warren but I’ll still try to give you some winners on one of the biggest racing days on the calendar at Golden Gate. We have a couple jockeys flying in from SoCal to ride for trainers shipping in. The big race goes as race 7 with 10 points to the Kentucky Derby as well as an automatic entry to the Preakness. I’ll go through all 11 runners below. On a side note another NorCal runner is running in a big Kentucky Derby prep at the Fair Grounds. We’ll be rooting for Anneau d’Or to hopefully punch a ticket into the Kentucky Derby. The weather is going to be nice here in the Bay Area and a great day of racing should be in store. Here is a look on how I see the card.
Race 1: 5 Furlongs $5,000 Maiden Claiming 4 year olds & up (5-2-1)
5 North Cross makes his second start off an 11 month break. Off the layoff he dropped in class and ran a decent fourth. I expect this horse to sit close off the early leaders and get first run turning for home.
2 Legally Gray finished third last time at this level. He sat off the pace and rallied by in the stretch. I expect a similar trip this time and leading jockey Juan Hernandez retains the mount.
1 Badger makes his second run off a 6 month break. Showed speed last time and got passed late. I expect from the inside he will be forced to send. There’s other speed to his outside. Will be tough to wire the field but definitely could improve second start off the layoff.
Race 2: 5.5 Furlongs $6,250 Claiming F & M 4 & up (6-5-4)
6 Circulodeganadoras has broke the maiden for 5 three starts back. Since has run for the 4K n2L claiming condition. Both races were similar finishing second beaten half a length. I expect this filly to lay off the early leaders and go by in the stretch. Is stepping up in class a level.
5 Acadia Fleet might be spotted in a better position today. In the past she has always been in against tougher. In fact she broke her maiden against winners. The price is not intriguing at 8/5. Her race two starts back against tougher n2L will win her this race. She’s a bit inconsistent so 8/5 is not the play.
4 Thanks will be coming in from the night time racing at Los Alamitos. This horse will probably be part of the speed duel up front. Trainer Quinn Howey having success winning at a 33% clip this meet. She could carry her speed gate to wire.
Race 3: 1 Mile $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (2-5-6)
2 It’s Big Aine appears to be the one to beat. She will drop two levels in class and face much easier competition than she’s seen in the past. She has been close a couple times and will take the blinkers off today. Only thing not to like will be the odds at even money.
5 Satin Music has taken some nice steps moving forward going long. She’s sat off the pace to rally late. She hopes for a speed duel to run at. Third time going long should bring improvement as well.
6 I C Fire disappointed first time routing last time out. She face a bit tougher competition than she’s seen before and drops back into an easier spot today. First time Kent Desormeaux might start becoming an angle here in NorCal.
Others to consider: 8 Musketier Waltz ran a good race last out at a big number. In fact she’s never been less than 20/1. If she can duplicate her race last out and get some help she could pull off the win.
Race 4: 6 Furlongs $4,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (5-7-3)
5 Cash Money will drop back in class today after facing tougher last out. There isn’t a super horse in here so a good effort will do. I think he will sit midpack and make his run on the turn.
7 Carters Blue is 0 for 15 here on the Golden Gate tapeta. However he does have 7 second or thirds. This race is also 6 furlongs so based on his last run this extra half furlong benefits him late.
3 Changing Image is another who has gone winless on this tapeta surface. However he is a late runner. In fact at this 6 furlong distance he hasn’t missed the trifecta. Will probably be coming on late in the stretch.
Others to consider: 1 Baby You Got It fits under the category of winless over the surface. Had the lead and lost it mid stretch last out. Considerable to use underneath. 6 Fort York wheels back from a route to a sprint and also drops in class. Could have stamina over the others from the route races. Question is will he go by tired runners late.
Race 5: 1 Mile $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds (8-2-6)
8 Qick Quack Quo will probably be a hunch play for the duck loving track announcer. But he appears to be a real contender as well. He was able to stalk the pace and make up ground two back. Sprinted last time and made up ground. Today she stretches back out looking to break the maiden.
2 Gregs City Zip will make his second attempt routing. He set quick fractions last time battling for the lead. I think if he can relax he might have a chance to go wire to wire. Could possibly be the lone speed in the race.
6 Speeding Runing will be a price play to consider. I don’t know if he’s good enough to win but his odds definitely shouldn’t be 12/1. I expect him to sit midpack to make his run. He would like a pace to chase but could pass tired runners if not.
Others to consider: 3 Our Expectation is a second time starter doing a couple things. Drops in class and goes from a sprint to a route. Didn’t break too well last time and was rallying late. The added ground should help.
Race 6: 1 Mile $12,500 Claiming F & M 4 & up (3-2-1)
3 Jaimi James makes a quick return to action in 9 days. The last time she was routing at this level she stalked the pace and just missed. I expect a similar trip today and the pace up front could help her as well.
2 Rouge Bouquet comes in here with a lot of underneath finishes on the tapeta. However I like her chances with all the early speed signed on. Jockey Brayan Pena has a couple nice off the pace wins yesterday and he could do so again today with this runner who does his best running late.
1 Loretta is a horse that has options. It will be up to jockey William Antongeorgi to see what he does. He could engage and be on the early speed if other horses aren’t going fast. He could also rate this filly right off the leaders if the pace is fast because why engage in a 3 way battle. Definitely a horse with a chance.
Others to consider: 7 Live It Well first off the claim and stepping back up against tougher competition. Two starts back didn’t have the kick in the stretch that she possessed sprinting last time. Rene Amescua 19% off the claim from 16 runners. 6 American Royalty has been off form since the first start off the break. Liked this horse on opening day and maybe one more chance for this mare who has been lackluster of late.
Race 7: $100,000 1 Mile ⅛th El Camino Real Derby 3 year olds (1-11-9-8-7)
The big race of the day. Let’s go through our top picks then round out with the other contenders as well.
1 Indian Peak will be our top pick. Ignore his last race on dirt as he stumbled into the turn. Two races back won a very good allowance race. Note that leading jockey Juan Hernandez opts to ride this runner here for a barn that’s having quite a year from 2019 to today.
11 The Stiff comes in off a win in the local prep race. He rated off the speed and came home late just in time. An extra eighth of a mile benefits his style. I don’t think 8/1 odds will hold up for a trainer who’s had success shipping up north. Only negative if any is the outside post.
9 Azul Coast might be the standout superstar here. Was purchased for 320k and won impressively on debut. Came back last time in the grade 3 Sham well beaten by Authentic. It’s Bob Baffert in a Derby prep and Rafael Bejarano comes in town to ride. Only question will be whether the dirt form transfers for him to handle the tapeta.
8 Ajourneytofreedom is the little brother to last years winner Anothertwistafate. Connections will be busy saddling another 3 year old across the country when this race happens. However not without a shot especially considering the 12/1 m/L just based off a three quarter length beat as a favorite last out. Ricardo Gonzalez gets the call with Hernandez riding another contender.
7 Sacred Rider ran a giant second at big odds in the Cal Cup Derby last out. The extra sixteenth should help but note his lone win came on the turf.
Rest of the field: 10 Czechmight makes his first start for the new connections. Jockey Jose Valdivia Jr comes north to ride. Will probably be on the lead early. Don’t know how long he will last. 4 Wine and Whisky finished second to The Stiff in the prep for this race. He will hope for pace to chase and the extra sixteenth benefits him. 5 Mysterious Stones is the lone three time winner in the race. Lost the lead in mid stretch last time and will need to grind out an extra half furlong. 3 American Farmer faces enters stakes company just off his maiden win. He was able to sit off the pace and rally. Expect him off the pace but will need to show continued improvement for a shot. 6 Final Final finished 5th out of that common prep race. Will need to past the other four in front of him. Maiden win was on turf this is on tapeta. 2 Praise Loudly comes out of a starter allowance event. Facing much tougher competition as the morning line reflects at 50/1. Needs huge improvement.
Race 8: 1 Mile ⅛th Allowance Optional Claiming 4 year olds & up (8-2-7)
8 Cono gets the top pick here. Jockey Mario Gutierrez comes north just to ride this horse and this isn’t even a stakes event. Two starts ago won an allowance race sitting just off the pace. Last out third was in a much tougher turf classic. Appears to be the one to beat here.
2 Gobsmack could outrun his odds. A horse that will be sitting off the pace and coming late benefits from the 9 furlong distance but will hope for a super hot pace to chase.
7 Friday’s At Shady comes in off a win at the 20 claiming level. Will look for back to back wins and comes from a barn who is striking at 35%. Trainer Ari Herbertson actually had 3 wins yesterday.
Others to consider: 5 No Name Fred was able to stalk and rally two back in a 20 claimer. Stepped up to allowance company last start but faded after stalking the pace. Gets Kent Desormeaux today.
Race 9: 6 Furlongs Maiden Special Weight F & M 4 & up (2-6–9)
2 Envy will be the pick in the last. I’m hoping he sits midpack off the early leaders. There will be speed to set up this mare who likes to run by runners late. Price is right at 6/1.
6 La Shirimp makes her first start in the new barn of Andy Mathis. Was second routing last time. Has been off for a couple months and returns sprinting. Has done well off a freshening in the past. Could be the one to beat.
9 St. Annie’s Indy is a price horse underneath. She should benefit from the speed up front. Last time she was making up ground before slamming and steadying at the ⅛th pole. Debut was a rallying fourth finishing just behind the top pick here.
Others to watch: 5 Illapawnie is making her first start off a nine month break in a protected maiden special weight race. She could be rallying from off a hot pace if she’s fit. 4 Justalittleviolent is a second time starter for the Jonathan Wong barn. Made a six wide rally that debut. Returns off a 5 month break.
Best bet: Race 5 Qick Quack Quo 4/1
Price play: Race 9 Envy 6/1
Good luck on El Camino Real Derby day! Reminder dollar day tomorrow and a special holiday program on Monday. See you then.