Fairgrounds Friday
Race 1
9-3-11
#9 Rule Taylor Rule 5/1: I really think this 2 year old daughter of The Factor will take to the turf here. She should be able to sit a couple lengths off of the front and make her move down the stretch. Her trainers numbers should give us a square price. If I see anything close to her 5/1 ML she’s a major play for me.
#3 Irish Hustle 8/1: This 2 year old filly went turf first time out at Saratoga and never lifted her feet. After 2 tries against open company on the dirt Calhoun gets her back on the turf and drops her down to face statebreds for the first time. I believe she is bred to run on the turf and switch back should do her wonders.
#11 Cicada’s Song 7/2: This 2 year old filly out of twirling candy is a horse I would normally hammer first time out as Albert Stall is 23% with firsters and 17% with turf debuters. Stall is currently 1 for 37 at the meet but he has 15 places. Maybe this girl can get him over the hump.
Off Turf: 7-9-14
Race 2
7-5-6
#7 Betwithbothhands 9/2: This Uncle Mo colt is in my opinion the best bred miler in the field. Couple that with first off the claim for Eddie Kenneally (30%) we have a top play for me. Now he has never shown any speed in his 3 life time outs and that could hamper him a bit but with a few of these stretching out for the first time I’m hoping a battle up front will occur.
#5 Dad Said No 4/1: First off the claim for Delta mainstay Justin Jeansonne (25%). Justin doesn’t run a lot at fairgrounds but when he does he has them ready to go (10-2-2-2). He claimed this colt off of Joe Sharp on the 7th and put one good work into him over at Delta. Bringing him back here for this race shows me he has some confidence in him.
Race 3
3-6-5
#3 I’m Amazing 5/2: This $1.6 mil yearling purchase from 2014 has obviously been a major disappointment. He’s coming in here off of a 5 month layoff but gets 1st time Amoss (25%) and first time maiden claimer (32%). Graham and Amoss have been on fire lately hitting at 33% the last 60 days. His numbers tower over this field and to me he looks unbeatable. We’ll bite the very short price.
#6 Moon Unit 4/1: We’ll cross out his first time against claimers as it was on the turf and this son of Malibu Moon looks like a major contender. This race is void of any major speed so he could find himself on the front end or just off the front. He’ll be in the lead turning for home and try to hold off I’m Amazing.
Race 4
6-7-5
#6 Stealth Drone 5/2: I think this mare 2nd off the claim for Assmussen (27%) is in a perfect spot. She comes in off a 2 month freshening (19%) and has tactical speed. I don’t believe she needs the lead but she could also go to the front and not look back. If the 1A and 5 get in a heated battle Ricardo will lay off the pace and make his move down the stretch. If they don’t duel up front he can send her and run away from them late. Let’s take the short price and move on.
#7 Ceremony 3/1: This filly was running against stakes and allowance company in Texas and Oklahoma this summer. Pish drops her into this claiming spot after 3 months off. She will sit in the back of the field and try to make her move late. I see her passing tired horses but not having enough to catch our top choice.
Race 5
2-1-3
#2 Ed’s Rocket 8/1: Now I’ll be the first to admit this horse shows a lot of negatives on the form. 0% trainer at the meet, 1% jockey, never won at the distance but I think this race is completely void of any speed other than this guy. We get a 5lbs bug and all systems should be on go to wire this field. Bruggemann is an excellent trainer and will get out of the slump sooner than later. Let’s jump on and get a square price.
#1 Cookies are Good 3/1: This 4 year old gelding takes a slight jump in class first off the claim for Joe Sharp (21%) Last out he sat behind the pace and made his move down the stretch to win by 2.5 lengths at 9/5. I look for Beschizza to use the same tactics today to try and run down Ed’s Rocket.
Race 6
In a race where I think any of them can win let’s pass
Race 7
8-1-6
#8 Arch’s Li’l Neita 5/2: This is as simple as using a filly that is stretching out to a mile for the first time against a very very weak field of maiden claimers. Sam David Jr has very good numbers Sprint to Route (24%) and First time Route (33%). I think this horse will be much the best against this weak field. Let’s eat the short price.
#1 Proudmoney 3/1: This filly has shown a love for using her early speed and fading down the lane thru her first 12 starts. I believe today will be much of the same for her but against this field she will hold onto a minor award just falling to our top choice.
Race 8
Statebred maiden claimers that I can’t get a read on Let’s pass on the race
Race 9
4-1-7
#4 Take Charge Chase 8/1: In this cheap statebred maiden claimer we will take our chances with the only FTS of the field. This colt is debuting for Sturges Ducoing who is 17% with debut maiden claimers. He gives the mount to Sophie Doyle who’s quietly having a good meet. He won’t have to be anything great to beat this field and we should get a square price.
#1 Comebackwilson 3/1: this colt is the obvious horse to beat in this field. He improved by leaps and bounds 2nd time out after not lifting a foot on debut. With that same effort he will be tough to beat in this spot but I don’t think we’ll like the odds we’d have to eat especially with a bounce chance from the rail.
#7 Run Parker Run 8/1: I’m not one to make bets off names very often but with my first born “Parker” to be here very soon I will have a little side action on this horse.
Good Luck and let’s Cash!!