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Race 1
SELECTIONS: 8-2-5
#8 Ticketformichelle 6/1 – This 2yo filly will get my checkmark to start the Friday card at FG! The first time starter for Alan Klanfer is well spotted in this event. Although there aren’t a slew of AM workouts that you’d normally see from a top trainer, I like the fact that Klanfer ended working this one twice going 5/8ths of a mile. Although slow, this shows that he is trying to build stamina in this filly. Her pedigree says that she would like to route and has a solid tree when it comes to OFF track which is what we should have today. NOTE trainer statistics… 25% with debuts going 1m or greater with +$2.25 ROI, 19% with Debut MdnClm with +$2.03 ROI, 24% with FTS (first time starters) +$2.43 ROI. Alan doesn’t have a big barn (90 runners total in 2018), but when he runs… he’s live and finds a nice spot in here with this one to debut.

#2 Top Ten Duchess 9/2 – This is the horse to beat in here without question. Having run at this level, this track and this distance last time out, the 2nd place finish only beaten 1 3/4 lengths is something that can’t be touched by any in here. As a matter of fact, this is one of only two horses in this event that has gone this distance. That type of effort first time over this track is something she can build on. She has tactical speed, drawn inside and is now 3rd off the layoff which typically means we will get a top effort today. NOTE: Lee Thomas is more then a capable trainer and his stats show it… 18% with 2nd time routers, 15% overall and 10% with runners 3rd off layoff. The one to beat in here.

#5 Cool Sis 3/1 – I think the 3/1 ML is a little low and I think there this line goes one of two ways… even money or worse OR we get a small overlay like 7/2 or 4/1 on this one. Although in three career starts and have been beaten 22.5 lengths in total in those… the speed figures have come back strong. The 58 and 60 in her last two starts are tops in the field. With the expected mid 60’s speed figure from the winner, now running for the 2nd time off the layoff, we should see a big improvement today from this one. I really like how Dwight Viator put this one on the track in morning running 5/8ths on 12/15 1:01.4, a very encouraging work. NOTE: Be careful how short you’ll take on this one… trainer is 0/17 with 2yo. 

Race 2
SELECTIONS: 2-1-8
#2 Karma 6/1 – This price will not stick but we can at least get excited about it just in case. When you look at this wide open race for this 15k level, there is SOOOOOO much top end speed its crazy! As many as 5 horses who want OR need the lead to take the money. I made this one my top selection because she’s the most consistent runner of any in this field. In the 10 races that I can see in PP’s, she hasn’t run worse then a 73 speed figure and topped out at 80. Although the 80 isn’t as good as some of the runners in here, the pace set up makes this one an easy pick for me. If not for race set up, how can you not go with a combo of Santana/Asmussen? Asmussen does well (19%) with runners off this layoff, 19% with Shippers, 26% when his runner runs back in a Clm race after winning previous start AND did I mention that Ricardo wins 21% of his mounts for Asmussen? Pick. NOTE: this one does have a win (last out at RP) over an off going. Something to note as some overnight rain might have the track starting out as Good.

#1 No Cacha Na 5/2 – The performance last out at this level, track and pretty much distance (1m, today is 1m 70 yards) is something that is untouchable. A repeat performance of that and everybody else is running for 2nd place money. The 87 speed figure for that effort is tops in the field. I like how this one is parked inside on the rail with speed as James Graham can be aggressive early and has the quickest and shortest route around the track. Speaking of Graham, is there a jockey any hotter then him right now when riding for Tom Amoss? 10-3-4-2 to be exact over the last 14 days. Seems that if Amoss has a big time runner, this is the jockey he is going to which is encouraging. This horse is the class of the field and will be the one to catch as they come for home!

#8 Soaring Now 6/1 – We mentioned there was speed in this race right? Well… we have the dead closer as our top selection, we have what should be the speed of the speed as our second choice, why not have the runner who will get first crack at them as they turn for home? It was an encouraging sign last out over this track going 1m where she ran down times of 25.3/51.2 being behind as much as a length and a half in that effort although against just the 5k level. With that being said though, there are more then just a couple encouraging signs this one will run well today… Eric Heitzmann has 1 winner out of 2 starters when moving horses up 2 classes (that winner was a BOMB), this filly made the move on the far turn and absolutely stomped off without any more encouragement from Murrill (who is aboard today) and lastly… speaking of Murrill… what’s the story with this one? He was the one that was aboard the rail horse when she won and got an 87 speed figure on here yet you find him here? Noteworthy. 

Race 3
SELECTIONS: 12   (SINGLE)
#12 Lady Quality 4/1 – This will be a single for us in the Early Pick4. I know this is a MTO horse but with the rain overnight and the fact they didn’t run on the turf yesterday, hard for me to imagine that they won’t move this contest to the dirt and that’s where this one will get in and should be able to dust this field by a pole. Having been a MTO before (2 races back at Evd), that day she dusted the AOC12.5k field in wire to wire fashion. I would expect nothing less from here today against what will end up being a very bleak field that lacks many decent dirt performances. She does have a 2nd place finish on an OFF track in 2 starts and although this horse is 0/3 at FG, all of those tries were against much better and once (last out) being on grass that she did not take well to. 4/1 will turn into 4/5 QUICKLY once she draws in and this is moved to the dirt… none the less… a home run, easy single here for me. Pick.

Race 4
SELECTIONS: 4    (SINGLE)
#4 Fashion’s Touch 9/2 – Single/Single to end the Pick4 sequence? Why not? This filly for Hugh Robertson will be the speed of the speed in this 6f sprint. I really like the 3 efforts over this course, all of which going with 6/8ths distance as today. When you look down the field, there seems to be a lot of speed but can you name me a horse that can and WILL go sub 22 flat and 46 flat 1/2’s? Didn’t think so. I would expect this filly off the layoff to go straight to the lead with Marcelino Pedroza and not look back against this field today. There are a couple more angles that make this horse very very strong and tough in here. First, I love horses who are lightly raced. At this type of level, its hard to find consistently with runners who are showing up every 14-17 days so the fact that Robertson lays her off and rests/trains her in the AM is something that I really like in this spot. Secondly, Marcelino has jumped on this filly one other time, that effort was her only time in the winner circle and just happens to be the highest speed figure of her career (83 on 3/30/18). Lastly, Robertson has kept her busy in the AM workouts in prep for this event here… the 10/30 and 11/12 are nothing short of just keeping her fresh and to build some muscle back but the efforts on 11/24 and 12/11 going 1/2m in :48.4 in each work is something thats a BIG ++++ for me knowing we need this one going to the front to have success. She’s ready and so am I to bet with both fists at 9/2.

Race 5
SELECTIONS: 16-5-6
#16 Cool Sailor 20/1 – 20/1 is a joke. There is no way that this number will stick expecting this race to come on the turf. When this one draws in, what I really like about this gelding is the fact that Joe Sharp FINALLY puts him on the surface that he belongs. I can see in pedigree there are some encouraging signs for grass but out of Ice Box (Pulpit), put him on the dirt and as long as possible. We get dirt, 1 1/16m, the combo of Sharp/Beschizza who win at 20% clip over last 60 days and now 2nd time off the layoff, the improve should be just out of this world. If we get somewhere near 20/1, I will go crazy at the windows. NOTE: when handicapping such races as these, I love seeing a steady dose of 5/8f works and thats what we have here capped by the three 1:02’s posted over this surface, the last being on 11/25. Theres a lot to like here and a chance we could get a decent price on him. Choice.

#5 Cairo Holiday 6/1 – This should be the horse that’ll inherit the favoritism if perhaps stays in this field once this race is taken off the turf and rightfully so. The efforts on the dirt, including the 66 speed figure 2 races back finishing 3rd against a much better field at CD that day then what will be left in here. I like how Walsh stays with Graham who has ridden this colt in every start besides one and has a lot of familiarity with him. A question that’ll need to be answered is where will the speed come from? With the expectation of it being off the turf, maybe Graham gets aggressive with this one and gets an easy lead and could be the one they’ll have to catch as they turn for home.

#6 Just in Tee 20/1 – Again, another 20/1 shot that shouldn’t be 20/1 if this race is taken off like expected. The effort in debut was something to be desired BUT every chance was lost at the break. Gate opened and this one didn’t come out until he was a good 5 lengths behind. Immediately spotting the field 11 lengths, Corey Lanerie never tried on this one after the break at CD on 10/31. The AM work tabs are worth something which includes a 4f :48.2 8/66 at CD on 11/19, I really love the 5f workout after that though over this dirt track 1:02 flat from the GATE (take note). 1:02 isn’t “blazing” but the fact that this one GOT OUT OF THE GATE means maybe this one is ready to actually run today at a big big price! Longshot look.

Race 6
SELECTIONS: 2    (SINGLE)
#2 Sacred Lady 5/2 – No price here but there is so much to love with this one as we start off the Black Gold 5 with a single. Off a 60 day layoff, this one came to FG and Mena took this filly wire to nearly wire as she got nipped in the last stride to lose by just a nose. Now 2nd off the layoff, parked inside, has speed and should be the speed of the speed in here, has shown ability at this level, distance and track… it’s going to be hard to knock this one in any way shape or form. I love the fact that Sharp keeps Mena on after the effort he gave her last out. Sharp also decides to ditch the blinkers here after seeing so much improvement last out and he’s 33% when doing so. Lastly we’ve been talking about building muscle in the AM workouts and I believe this one is primed for a lifetime best performance after seeing the nice 5f 1:02.2 on 12/14 over this surface. Will most likely be 8/5 even though there are many different directions you can go in… but it’s a STONE single for me here. Pick.

Race 7
SELECTIONS: 12-11-9
#12 Pretty At War 12/1 – Another assumption that this race will be taken off the turf, I really like this filly for Tom Amoss. I’m actually interested in the fact that he wants to try grass again with this one after the effort last out going 1 1/16 on the main track at CD against MSW76k running 3rd against a very solid group. As we mentioned earlier, we love when Amoss puts Graham up here at FG and over the last 14 days they are 10-3-4-2. I like the fact that Amoss gives this one a chance coming right back in basically 30 days as opposed to laying her off for the 3rd time in 3 races. 2nd off the layoff now, there is no question an improvement should be in store as Amoss has kept this one busy in the AM. As opposed to some other tracks, Graham will have a lot of time to get out of the gate and get over to save ground (as this one won’t want the lead) which will be vital in getting position just behind the speed. There is a lot to back here with this one and if the combo stays hot… we could get a really nice price on a nice runner here who is in good dirt form. 

#11 Zee Ro Drop 12/1 – This is runner we have to go back to Nov of last year to find efforts on dirt that would make this one competitive in here. That effort I’m speaking of did come over this track against this same level. She got left at the gate that day and immediately spotted the field 8 lengths but when they turned for home, she was the quickest one that was coming down the lane. Although beaten by 10 lengths that day, she had no chance once the gate popped. With Shaun jumping back in the irons after guiding this filly to a 4th place effort last out, only beaten 3 1/4 lengths on the FG turf course, I believe there is a lot to like if this one stays in to run on the dirt today. NOTE: take a look at the 5 efforts lifetime for this one; in each start she has improved in accordance to speed figures, getting a 65 in debut and topping out at 77 last out (68,71,76 in between). Another improve 4th off the layoff will put this one right there.

#9 Homefieldadvantage 6/1 – I really love the combo of William Bradley and Gabriel Saez. It’s a very under privileged combo at CD that you see a lot win at nice prices (as a matter of fact, they have won 40% of their combos over the last 60 days with a +++ ROI). In this spot, if we look back to the dirt form of this one, I think its vital that Saez get aggressive on her early to get in a front position like she did in her first 2 career starts at Monmouth. The 80 speed figure on July4 at Monmouth is something that I’ll hold onto knowing if that performance is shown here… this will be an easy winner. I really like the two workouts that William Bradley put her through… 5f drill 1:01.2 and the 5f drill 1:03. Horse is fresh, 3rd off layoff after basically being a non runner last out and gets a jock that the trainer has had success with. Has a big chance here.

Race 8
SELECTIONS: 2   (SINGLE)
#2 Free Cover 9/2 – One of my favorite angles to use is what we see here with this runner. Debut shows speed sprinting and now stretches out. The big difference is the fact that this one not only chased a :22 and :45.3 but then was able to hold off still challenges to win by a head. When you watch the race on replay, you feel like they could go 6 more times around the track and this filly is never going to let a rival go by. That is something to make note of because its not often you get to see a horse race with that much class at a whopping 54.2/1 in debut. The biggest concern people might have with this one is the 91 speed figure. Many would suggest that she ran her eye balls out and there is no way she doesn’t regress. I think you take that with a grain of salt but respond with saying she’s now STRETCHING OUT. Big difference. I’m really happy that Saez gets the nod again today on a runner he got home for Calhoun that prolly shouldn’t of. I think this runner who is parked on the inside will be the speed coming out of that sprint and if Saez can be PATIENT (the biggest key to this race), there is no reason why we can’t get away with mid 23’s and there is no doubt in my mind this filly will put away rivals if she gets to set that kind of pace. Calhoun is known for not really letting his horses “run” in the AM. You never really see very fast works from his horses so the 4f drill on 12/15 :49 is VERY QUICK for Brett. There is a ton to like here including Calhoun being 19% with shippers, 17% after Mdn score and 14% first time routing. Choice and we will get a good price on her today… could easily overlay.

Race 9
SELECTIONS: 12-11
#12 Spectacular Gem 6/1 – You can see what I’m doing with races that are (assumed) off the turf and thats taking the MTO’s. Why do I do this? Well… a lot of times trainers would like to get wins and pick up purse money with horses that maybe don’t fit (or can’t beat) the particular level if scheduled for dirt so they put them against grass horses knowing they have a track advantage and a MUCH weaker field overall for the level they want their horses to run at. With that being said, I like the efforts of this colt in every race of career. He seems to always show up and run his race. I like the fact that this one, who will be parked outside, has speed to cut over and get at or near the front today while having the back class having raced against much tougher then todays field. Nearly identical to what I just said for the horse in the previous race, I like the fact that James Baker is stretching this one out for the first time in career. Having shown speed against better, now gets weaker field and could be lone speed on the front end. Rocco is a capable jockey and a very good front end rider. He needs to have good clock management and if he can do that, he’ll find himself in the winner circle on this runner today. Choice.

#11 Owendale 5/1 – The other MTO in this field, this colt for Brad Cox is coming off a slight layoff since running a game 4th last out at CD against AOC75k. That day he battled with two other horses on the front end and it wasn’t until the last 16th of a mile where he gave way to the field and finished 4th. The 81 speed figure for that effort was best of career and with ShaunB jumping back in the irons, there is no reason why this one can’t repeat or even outperform that effort in Oct. It’s just incredible what a guy like Brad Cox can get his runners to do… look at this work tab since the layoff… we have :47.4 on 12/15, :59.3 on 12/2 on top of FAST 1/2 and 5/8ths drills. If the AM means anything this afternoon around lets say 5:25P EST, this one will be in the winner circle and everybody else is running for 2nd. NOTE: the stats of Brad Cox is just out of this world… 26% overall, 28% off this 46-90 day layoff, 25% shipper… top that with ShaunB winning 33% over the last 60 days for him, makes this one ultra tough.

Race 10
SELECTIONS: 5-4-3
#5 El Tristan 5/2 – In these type of “NW” races, you like to find a horse (if possible) that’s in good form and thats what we have here. Having just bested a field of 5kN2L’s here at FG, this one is well spotted against another weak field today. I like the fact that this one has a front end running style in a race with little to no speed whatsoever. I love the combo of Beschizza and Johnston who are winning at a high clip together. If that wasn’t enough, just look at the efforts over the FG dirt… these are the best efforts lifetime. So, speed in a race with little pace, has a win over track and distance AND the jock/trainer combo has had lots of success. This runner will be very tough in this spot. Pick.
#4 Iron Grip 10/1 – This is a long shot that I believe is very live in this spot. Although there isn’t a whole lot to see of recent from this gelding, the fact that the trainer is 21% with horses 3rd off the layoff catches your eye. On top of that, I think you need to dig down a little bit more to find the root as to why this one hasn’t show much since that layoff. For one, the race two back was perhaps one of the best performances lifetime, that being against the open 5kN3L level but most importantly I want to talk about the ridiculous trip this one had last out. Was a bit slow out of the gate (which isn’t abnormal), Chantal had a choice… rush or get squeezed (which turns out to be not much of a choice), she rushes, believes she has position, gets squeezed anyway and that was all she wrote as he just gave up. PERHAPS, without the steady, no telling what could’ve happened in that race. 10/1 is more then fair and the belief that our top choice will most likely get pounded, this one could float and one that you should include on tickets.
#3 Whathadhappenwuz 8/1 – What a toss up this one is, as it was for most of the runners in here. This gelding just ran 3rd beaten 3 3/4 lengths last out at this level BUT was sprinting 6f that day. The 72 and 73 speed figures for the last two efforts off the layoff are competitive numbers in this event. Combine that with the 13% Sprint-Route angle for the trainer with +$3.38 ROI puts this one over the top. Although its been in 14 tries, this one does have a win over the track and 4 thirds. Running lines seem to say that this one would relish more ground so I’ll take a flier in exotics here on a horse that will be more like 15/1 when they load into the gate rather then this comical 8/1 ML. 

I wish everybody the best of luck today at Fairgrounds!!!
– GenoG      @DaVilleKY32