Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Sunday, November 18, 2018, by Neil Petrocelli

Looking forward to an exciting Fair Grounds meet, which always culminates with the La. Derby.  Many talented 3 yr. olds make themselves known during this meet (especially on the filly side!).   Seems there are barns and riders that point toward Fair Grounds annually, and we’ll keep an eye on them, while some national stables are present pretty often too.

Race 1:  8 – 6 – 4

Attitude Adjustment has recency, form and takes a significant drop in class.  Barn hits at 21% – he sits and pounces, and helps the barns percentage.  McIlhenny, also drops off 3 pretty identical efforts, comes of 3 month layoff.  Ladygogently, firster bred for speed top and bottom, 3 moderate gate works should have her ‘pop’.

Race 2:  4 – 8 – 1A

Somewhat formless race, going for the ‘once every six months’ runner, Smartica Song, consistent work pattern, last a big improvement.  Perin the Pirate, also coming off a layoff and back to dirt.  Has a couple of races that if replicated would take this.  From Now On, out since August – works progressively better, last jumps off page.

Race 3:  5 – 8 – 6

B’s Ten – smart barn, good figures, likes the course, lots of upside.  Only drawback, Bridgmohan jumps off. Still, the maiden breaker was impressive.   Spartanburg – likes the course, has made a career of running for the tag at this level.  Too Bad Chu strong second this course, a repeat of that makes her formidable here.

Race 4:  8 – 1 – 4

Louisiana bred non-winners of two race here. – going for the dropper, Sobriquet, power barn, repeat of last fast track effort takes this.  Dude Greeley – his win is over the track – something only Jackpot Johnny can say – and has a 50% in the money over the track stat.  Jackpot Johnny the other track winner, looks to complete trifecta.  

Race 5:  8 – 9 – 5

Play On – showed real speed at Keeneland on the dirt 1st out.  Nice work the other day, Bridgmohan stays, More than Ready on dam side suggests grass, sits outside here, pounces.   Scatrattleandroll, blinkers go on, cutback in distance should have him flying at the end.  Breezing Bye, bred for speed and grass, really good work pattern.  

Race 6:  5 – 6- 2

Another NW2L – none having any form to speak of over the track. Phat and Fast looks very formidable on the drop.  Good works for the class in preparation.  El Tristan last our best yet – keeps improving?  Real Time also drops, but only win on grass and FG form not inspiring…

Race 7: 1 / 1A – 7 – 8

Either entrymate could take this, Divine Quality hasn’t run a bad one, Silla Manila consistent, distance helps, reunited with Pedroza who rode her to a good finish on this course.  Alfresco, can’t leave her off tickets – stretches out, grasses, off 1st out win sprinting.  Out of a champion mare – looks tough.  Cause Me Grief, high priced claim, by high powered barn – must be a reason, learn more today.

Race 8:  1 – 4 – 7

Can make a case for just about anyone in the race, will go with who we think is the best of the sit and pounce types: My Miss Chiff – will be closest from the rail, gets first jump (but better get some separation).  Working well for return, runs well fresh. Undefeated at FG. Shakopee Town two starts over the track exceptional, last should have her sitting on ready.   Dixie Brees, hard-trying mare, likes the track, will be coming.

Race 9:  11 – 4 – 3

Marvella, simply put the Jimmy Creed’s just run.  Works that jump off the page, barn has them ready first out, outside post a plus for a firster, sits just outside, finishes.  Jo Jo Air can’t leave a Ward trainee out, thought highly enough to be entered in a stake 2nd time out – goes favored, tough to beat.   She’s Divine, good barn, good form.  Gets piece on the cutback…

 

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