Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Saturday, November 24, 2018, by Jeff O’Reilly

Race 1:

(7) Social Cat seems to be lone speed on paper and should go right to the front and wire this field.

(3) Da Van Geaux has been working really well and should be ready to fire first out.

(6) Chimneyville is going from open company back into state bred company but hasn’t run a lick in his career. I will gladly take a shot against in this spot.

7-3-6

Race 2:

(9) Kileen is taking a class plunge and seems to overmatch his rivals today. He should get a perfect stalking trip.

(3) Miracle Mountain has some tactical speed that should put him in the race early. There isn’t much pace so I expect him to get first run on the closers and run well.

(8) Taste for Talent comes in off over a year layoff. If he runs back to his previous races he will win. I just cannot back a horse off that long of a layoff at such short odds.

9-3-8

Race 3:

(1) Sea Vow just seems much too classy for these horses today. Will be a short price but potential single.

(4) Case’s View has good early speed in a race that lacks it. If he gets away with soft fractions he will be tough to catch late.

(5) Wabash Cannonball is taking a bit of a class drop and that should help get him better results. I am just not sure hes quite good enough to beat the top two Saturday.

1-4-5

Race 4:

(1) Corot seems to be much too classy for these horses. Should sit a perfect pocket trip and explode home.

(6) Lets go Mick will be flying late but I fear it will be too little too late when they cross the wire.

(7) Bye Bye Birdstone has good tactical speed that will suit him well here. There isn’t a ton of pace for a turf sprint so his positioning early will benefit him late.

1-6-7

Race 5:

(5) Hansen’s Holiday seems to be lone speed in here. I am going to take a bit of a stab with a price as I am not too fond of the other short priced horses.

(1) Lucky Mon will be rolling late. However, there doesn’t seem to be enough pace in here to get him home when they cross the wire.

(7) Run Bayou Bird has not been seen since August. He hasn’t run well in either of his past two starts without much of an excuse. I will gladly take a shot against.

5-1-7

Race 6:

(10) Brookville Chapter should go right to the front and hopefully not look back. She gets the far outside post and will have no choice but to send out of the gates.

(8) Estrela Cadente is a classic plodder. She will sit mid pack and lazily come with a mild bid.

(9) Spanish Angel seems to ave figured it out last race and we will see if she can replicate that again.

10-9-8

 

Race 7:

(8) Tackett set grueling fractions last out and did well to hang on for third. With a better trip I expect a better result this time out.

(9) Afleet Moment puts blinkers on and gets rid of Leperoux. He should be better result this time with those improvements.

(1) Grove Daddy had a bad break first out and still finished up nicely. With a better break I expect this horse to be much closer to the pace.

8-9-1

 

Race 8:

(7) Looking for Bull adds blinkers and should sit a dream pocket trip just in behind the speed and take over at the top of the lane.

(5) Two Utes has run better than it looks on paper. He had a troubled trip in each of his two starts. With clean run he should be right in the mix when they hit the wire.

(4) Sherminator is a favorite I will gladly try and beat. He didn’t run well first out and is stepping up in class. No thanks.

7-5-4

Race 9:

(3) Twenty Four Seven just seems to be the class of this race. He was only beaten 3 lengths in the Arlington Million and should take care of this lesser group.

(7) Memory Bank has good tactical speed and should sit a good trip. We will see if hes good enough.

(4) Master Merion also has good early foot in a race that lacks it. He will get first run on the closers.

3-7-4

 

Race 10:

(9) A Pretty Face is the speed of the speed. I am hoping he clears and wires this field.

(5) Stellas Surprise run his race every time out. It put him right in the mix and we will see if he can finish this one off.

(1) Andthebandplayed on is a favorite I will try and beat. Takes a class plunge and hasn’t been seen in over 8 months. Pass.

 

9-5-1

 

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