Race 1.
BEARCREEK MOUNTAIN has caught tough customers in all 3 of his starts this year. This class drop should be a big help. He raced extremely wide in his last start on a day when the rail looked like the place to be. The horses who have started in this group have shown a serious lack of speed and BEAR has at least been within a couple lengths of the lead early in a couple of his starts. That could be a big advantage here. HAVEYOULOSTYOURMIND dropped to the lowest level of his career and ran a solid 2nd in his last start. He has no early foot, but if the first half of this race is as slow as it looks like it might be he should be much closer than usual. In his first start off the claim he’s a definite contender. LITTLE HOUSE is the unknown. He’s making his racing debut for a trainer who can fire with a first timer, and he shows a promising set of works, especially his last 2. If those quick half mile drills mean he has speed, a quick start may put him in a spot where he could get very brave.
Selections 5-6-3
Race 2.
Two strong betting angles to keep in mind when looking at this race. The first is always give extra consideration to a contender who figures to get an uncontested lead. The second is always give extra consideration when Joe Toye puts a horse in a prime spot and fires the previous rider. In this case, both angles apply to BUCKLEY BAY. After 2 local preps at a distance he hasn’t been too fond of recently, he goes to a route where he won 2 out of 3 at Emerald last season. He dueled through very rapid splits in his last sprint and there isn’t anyone in here who can come close to that kind of speed. With any kind of a smart ride the jock should be able to “walk the dog” in here. SHIFTY DANCER has had a lot of success in his career going two turns. He generally lays near the lead when he routes, and probably figures to be closest to the leader early, but he was more than 4 lengths behind BUCKLEY for the first half in their last out. He’ll need BUCKLEY to back up to get the win. Ditto for MISSED THE BOAT. He’s layed close in his previous routes, but he probably won’t be able to put any real pressure on BUCKLEY early.
Selections 1-2-6
Race 3.
I’m a bit skeptical of the favorites so going for prices in here. DOUBLESHOTOFHEAVEN ran a strong first half mile and then drew off to win in her first start of the year. She took a big class hike for her second start where she got hemmed in behind some quick early fractions. She tried to keep running thru the lane, but eventually was sawed off at the 1/8 pole and backed up from there. Several of the horses who beat her in that race have come back to run well to validate how strong that field was. There’s other speed in here, but she’s been running in much faster paced races than anyone else in here. Wire -to-wire upsetter. TAPTOO comes out of the same strong race as HEAVEN. She broke a step slow from the rail and ended up further back than usual. She continued on pretty evenly thereafter, but a big close is really not her style. With a good break in here she should be back to her usual stalking style and could get the first jump if the leaders back up. TOMORROWS MINE has run 2 strong races at the meet. She’s another with a good stalking style, and she’s always done her best running at Emerald. Another possibility at a decent price.
Selections 5-6-7
Race 4.
Several of these faced each other on July 29. But MALIBU BAY ran in a tougher race on the same day. BAY’s race was 2-3 lengths faster at every point and he was hung wide on a day when the rail looked like the place to be. Now he moves inside and has a stalking kind of running style in a race that appears to have 2 or 3 speed types. MITCH AND JOHN E was the odds on favorite when 3 of the contenders in here faced off last time. But he broke several lengths slow, moved from the 3 hole to the far outside and raced wide thru out. He also has a stalking style and may be able to make amends to his previous race backers in here at a better price. THIS GREAT NATION went wire-to-wire to win the common race last time out. The horse to his outside will play a big role in NATION’s ability to repeat that race. Javu showed big speed in his first few Turf Paradise races this winter, but it seems to have gone away since being claimed. If he finds his speed again, he will make life very difficult for NATION, but if his speed is gone for good, NATION faces a similar situation to the one he rode to victory last time out. Selections 2-3-5
Race 5
LETS DECLARE PEACE made her racing debut in a stakes race. She had 2 very fast works leading up to that start and anyone who works 33.8 from the gate must have some quicks. But PEACE got knocked around leaving the gate and looked a little tentative up the backside with a wall of horses in front of her. At the 1/2 it looked the lights went on and she appeared to be getting ready to make some noise, when her rider inexplicably dove to the rail, hit traffic and we never got to see what kind of move may have been coming. Now she has racing experience, moves in against maidens and draws the outside. Thinking there may be plenty in the tank and this is the spot to show it. STREET SHADOW was well bet in her debut and showed why. She finished 2nd to a filly who had shown some real ability in her prior start, and was several lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher who also had had a prior start. SHADOW has a good 1/2 mile work since that race and a repeat of her debut could be good enough. SCARRAZANO was also well played in the STREET SHADOW race. She was in traffic down the back side and the rider had to take a big hold when things tightened down nearing the turn. She may be much better than her running line shows, but she drew the one hole and if she isn’t real quick away from the gate, she may have a lot of ground to catch up down the lane.
Selections 8-6-1
Race 6
SUDDENLY AWESOME tried to go with 3 yr old star, Daffodil Sweet, in her last and no one has been able to do that yet. She paid the price late, but it still was a good effort. She should find this group a much better fit. There is other speed outside of her, so an alert start from the rail will be important. This race could have a fast pace and OK SO FAR may be the only real closer in here. She finished behind AWESOME last time out, but she broke slow, rushed into contention on the far outside and hung down the lane. She’s broken slow in all 4 of her starts and her best finishes have come when the rider has waited til the 1/4 pole to start riding. She may pass a bunch of these down the lane if this jockey goes back to how he rode her in her first start of the year. GOLDEN DELIGHT is the unknown in here. She’s shown good speed in all 3 of her lifetime starts in California and presumably has faced tougher. A little puzzling that she ends up at Emerald when her synthetic race at Golden Gate was a winning one and racing has returned to GG. But it’s entirely possible that she repeats her Cali form and if so, she may just run away from these at a short price.
Selections 1-6-5
Race 7
Wicked race to open the Pick 5. All 6 firsters have pedigrees, workouts and trainers to suggest a winning debut, and 3 of the 4 who have run are exiting a stakes race where each showed promise. COASTAL JAZZ should be favored and for good reason. He chased his promising stablemate home to finish second in his first start, then led the stakes field thru a fast half mile before fading to finish 3rd. When you hit the board in a stakes race, you should stick out in a maiden race, but it’s not that simple here. FRANKS FIX IT broke poorly his debut and didn’t show much, but after getting bumped at the break in the stakes he rushed to settle just behind the leaders. He had a narrow opening along the rail turning for home, but never quite got thru and then was steadied late to finish a 1/2 length behind COASTAL. He showed big improvement from his first to his second race, and with another move forward he could get the maiden breaker here. All the non starters in here have promising breeding, but JOHN’S ON POINT may be bred to be the quickest. Abraaj is well known for siring precocious runners in this part of the country and JOHN’S dam is the daughter of Spite and Malice, who was one of the fastest mares to ever race at Emerald. The Wenzel/Martinez combo have already taken one baby race this year.
Selections 8-9-5
Race 8.
The second leg of the Pick 5 isn’t much easier than the first. It appears like there will be a hot, contested pace, so looking at one of the closers to get the win. As the 4/5 favorite last out, LICORICE DROP POP was carried far wide when a tiring speed horse drifted way out at the 1/4 pole. LICORICE seemed to lose his momentum at that point as well as being pushed far away from the golden rail. His effort was better than the running line shows. Additionally, he was claimed by a trainer who’s having a very good season and has a good record with his first-off-the claim starters. RIGGSKI had pretty much the same trip as LICORICE and actually finished 1/2 lengths ahead of him. Both these horses have a stalking style than could be quite advantageous in here. MOLAF is a tough read. Not a fan of horses who are claimed for $5,000 and are immediately entered back for $2,500, but claiming races are a bit of a poker game. Are you bluffing or are you sitting on the winning hand? He ran against better last time, but he also failed to take advantage of a rail trip on an inside biased trip. Certainly could win, but expecting his price to be much lower than the morning line and with all the questions here, I’m looking for a better price option than him. Selections 11-8-7
Race 9.
If you thought this race might be the easy leg of the Pick 5, you’re going to be disappointed. Tough to find even a couple of throwouts in here. THE PRESS never attracts a ton of betting action, but today he may be the horse that kills a lot of Pick 5 tickets. Surprisingly, his last race was pretty slow paced for the level, which worked against PRESS. He also took the worst of the inside bias by racing far wide the whole way. But, as soon as you see Capital Expense in the field, you know the pace will be fast this time around, and PRESS may be the horse in here who can most take advantage. WHEEL RALLY fired a big one in his first start off the bench. His running style allows him to adjust to any pace scenario and there is likely going to be some tired horses who have chosen to chase Capital Expense early. He’s had nearly a month off and has 2 solid works since his first of the year, which lessens the possibility of a “bounce” here. A step forward could give him his second straight win this season. GRINDER SPARKSAGLO continues to fire every time he runs, but, he’s been just a little flat the last furlong of his races this season. He’s likely to be favored again, and it would be no shock if he wins, but he’ll need a perfectly timed ride to get it done. Selections 3-2-5
Race 10
Will this be the easy Pick 5 Race? No chance. A lot of contenders in here, but most of them are dropping after dull efforts, so who’s going to fire today? THE SUPPLY PROGRAM is an exception. The Grants Pass contingent Jorge Rosales brought to Emerald have all fired better than you would expect of horses shipping in from more of a “minor league” track. SUPPLY appears to be on an upward trajectory after being claimed in January, so no reason he won’t run a big one in his first Emerald start. He has an effective stalking style, and the likely pace setter in here can be counted on to stop midstretch. SUPPLY may be in the right position to take advantage. GOLDEN COWBOY was the 2/5 favorite in his last one and came home dead last. But he stumbled badly out of the gate that day, and Lucarelli has given him 6 weeks off to re-group since that non-effort. COWBOY runs his best from close up, but with Fuzzy Dolphin in here, sitting off the pace may be the place to be. So how do you read the likely favorite? ? If you see a 2 for 22, former $25,000 claim coming off a poor race, you play against him. But if you see a huge favorite whose chances disappeared at the break in his most recent and now is cutting his claiming price nearly in half, you single him. JIMJIMMYJAMES was a huge disappointment in his last. He overcame a troubled trip to run a good 4th against much tougher in his seasonal debut. He came back in an easier spot and didn’t fire one bit. He takes another drop here and goes back to the jock who rode him when he ran that big race. JIMMY is wildly inconsistent, but on his good day he could easily win this.
Selections 4-9-6
Race 11
If you’re still alive in the Pick 5 heading into the final leg, you are likely looking at a very large potential score and you are the one who should be writing this column. Good luck to you! In bottom level maiden races I always look for class droppers. Even a one level drop can be a big drop with this type. BABY ROCKS fits the bill. She’s run 2 thirds here at a notch higher, and while she’s been well-beaten in both, those 2 efforts could be plenty good enough against these. CHANTE ran a huge race in her first start here. She was totally eliminated at the break and was far back early. She hit her stride at the top of the lane and made an eye catching run thru traffic to finish 4th, just behind the 2nd and 3rd favorites in here. She’d been competitive with much tougher in Cali this winter, and with any kind of luck at the break in here, she could be very tough to beat. SONGBIRD EYDIE ran well in her first Emerald start. She raced closest to the winner the whole way around and tired a bit late. Surprisingly, there doesn’t seem to be much speed in here, and Eydie could take these a long ways.
Selections 8-2-3