Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, September 15, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1

1st #1 Thunderous Gem is shipping from Arlington, which is something that could help her out.  Unlike most in here, is consistently on the board as well as multiple stakes placed. Expect some value on this one.

2nd #5 Giro Kate was able to get some confidence back when she went and ran at Belterra, where she won two in a row.  She came to Ellis after that and ran fourth, but then notched another win. We know she can do two wins in a row, it’s just a matter of her form.

3rd #7 What a Fox is like a shot in the dark.  She tired in her last race? Tired pretty badly I guess.  I’m not too confident about her but with the connections she has, it is too hard not to take her somewhere.  She’s made a lot of money this year with only one win and no on the board finishes.

Race 2

1st #7 Top of the Page is among one of the elders in here, and is usually on the board and finishes well.  He’s shipping from Minnesota and trying the KY circuit once more, coming off of a third place finish.

2nd #3 Red Clay Magic just stopped last out.  Which was really odd for him. It was his first race since the end of April so that could be an exception, and he just needed a race to get fit, maybe didn’t like Indiana? Not one hundred percent sure.

3rd #2 Brerry ran third last out at Kentucky Downs which was a huge accomplishment as hitting the board there is very difficult to do.  He had a couple of months off and I think the freshening really benefited him.

Race 3-

1st #6 Art Buff ran really well at Saratoga and at Ellis last out.  Her career just started this year, and she’s only been off the board twice in six races.  It’s very respectable to have a third place finish at Saratoga.

2nd #3 Shackleford County I have taken multiple times in the past and she’s let me down.  Asking her to win off of a four and a half month layoff is a challenge, but it is possible because you can count on Dale Romans to have her ready.

3rd #5 Alizee has done quite a bit of shipping around for Tom Amoss and has handled it well.  She’s gone from Arlington to Ellis and Churchill and is usually one of the horses that puts an honest effort in.

Race 4-

1st #3 Girls Know Best is taking on the boys and has made $466K.  Hope the connections plan on breeding this lovely mare, as a win in this race would put her in earnings of over half a million.  She’s a force to be reckoned with, with 21 starts, 11 wins, 3 seconds, and 1 third.

2nd #7 Recount is an Illinois bred with $671K in earnings and is a graded stakes winner.  If you take a look at his family, they don’t even have the popular breeding a lot of big dogs do.  That’s what makes this guy special.

3rd #6 Satellite Storm is one of Valorie Lund’s (She’s an MN and Arizona trainer) horses and her horses can perform pretty much anywhere which is pretty cool.  He’s coming off of a victory in the Mystic Lake Mile at CBY.

Race 5-

1st #8 Overzealous is a Candy Ride gelding and CR has been HOT lately.  His offspring are bringing in big bucks and are very accomplished. His latest win at Ellis was a very good race and it would be nice to see him win two in a row.

2nd #3 Mystic Tiger has been traveling throughout the east and midwest, and I think it’s burned him out.  However, taking a look at his last race, his second place finish at Arlington was great and sets him up well for this race.

3rd #2 Due to His Charm can literally run anywhere in the US and it’s something he does well.  He’s been around the block with forty-six races and was competitive this spring at Oaklawn. Consider a show bet on this fella.

Race 6-

1st #5 Honduras has such an interesting name from being by Munnings out of Leave a Message.  Besides the point, he’s had a good year and Norm McKnight is really becoming a respected trainer.  This guy has two wins under his belt this year.

2nd #11 El Venue comes off of a win at Ellis Park.  Nice to see him win off of a layoff, and he has only had three starts this year.  Only one of those was off the board.

3rd #4 Big Al comes from Arlington after losing by three lengths last out.  He hasn’t won since the beginning of the year, or even ran any real impressive races except for last out, but I have a feeling he could be on the board.

Race 7

1st #10 Shakes Creek is really consistent, which is exactly what we as bettors want.  You know you can count on Brad Cox and Florent Geroux, as well as a horse who has been on the board for five out of seven starts this year.

2nd #9 Freefall has won two out of seven races.  Not bad, but the problem is he hasn’t had any other on the board finishes.  This is a better spot for him, and the son of Tiznow is trained by Mike Maker.

3rd #11 He’s No Bull ran solid races at Colonial Downs, but the competition there was just so stiff.  Besides that, he’s had a really good year and is a good one on the KY circuit.

Race 8-

1st #2 Believeinholidays let me down last night, but that’s okay, because every horse has their days and we are going to give him one more shot on top.  He’s very consistent when it comes to running third and fourth, so maybe we can get him a win here.

2nd #1 Salvator Mundi is sitting at 3/1 ML and is trained by Ken McPeek.  He is graded stakes placed already with only eight career races, and earnings of $107K with only one win.  Pretty good.

3rd #10 Days of Glory is an Ontario bred who was competitive out at Saratoga.  So he’s been racing some tough horses. This race is still a challenge, and he’s only had two weeks off.  But might be worth a show bet.

Race 9

1st #7 Diamondcoat is a four year old filly by Gemologist who is shy $7K of earnings of $200K.  Gemologist is turning out to be a fantastic sire and she has two wins this year. Ridden by Florent Geroux and trained by Bernie Flint.

2nd #4 True Dream has had almost three months off, running right back where she ran last time.  She looks good in this spot and ran some good races earlier that meet. She’s accumulated quite a bit in earnings in eighteen starts, with almost $200K.

3rd #8 Tap Gun has been off almost ten months.  Trusting her for a win is difficult because she will likely need an out or two.  Such a bummer because her career was just kicking off in the right direction.

Race 10-

1st #1 Cardamon is by the late Pioneerof the Nile who’s offspring is now in demand, but also worth a lot of money.  Juddmonte Farms owns and bred the filly, Bill Mott trains this one.

2nd #1A Quotation must be ready to do some damage, because she was a $400,000 purchase as a yearling for Juddmonte Farms.  She’s by Congrats and Brad Cox trains this one.

3rd #4 Getridofwhatailesu is by Ghostzapper out of a multiple stakes winner up at Woodbine named Autobahn Girl so she’s definitely got a classy family like the two above her.  Also trained by Brad Cox.

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